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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bolton Wanderers are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.07,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Middlesbrough are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.02,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"83 yellow cards in this referee's last 19 games, where 74 would be usual in this league, and 4 reds. — though 19 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":19,"yellows_per_match":4.37,"reds_per_match":0.211,"league_yellows_per_match":3.87,"league_reds_per_match":0.136,"yellow_ratio":1.13,"red_ratio":1.55,"sample":19,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 141 km for Middlesbrough.","evidence":{"travel_km":141},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Conditions: 45 km/h wind.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":45.1,"temperature_c":8,"description":null},"strength":0.268,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"both","pct":-2},{"channel":"corners","side":"both","pct":2}]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.17440382583577027},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Middlesbrough should dominate the flow of this match given their superior creativity. While they have manufactured the better opportunities in eight of their last ten outings, Bolton have struggled significantly in that regard recently. Middlesbrough have been punished harshly by poor defensive luck, shipping sixteen goals from chances that should have only cost them ten. Although Bolton are trending up after four improved games, their home form remains oddly poor. Losing a key defender in the team of the season hurts Bolton, while Middlesbrough rely on their top scorer to keep finding the net. Middlesbrough control the tempo despite their absences. This one is decided by the recurring creative gulf between these two sides.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5556,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":214107,"event_date":"2026-10-23T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1247,"home_team":"Bolton Wanderers","away_team_id":207,"away_team":"Middlesbrough","league_id":12,"league_name":"Championship"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":59.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5957,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792763575,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#263c7e","away":"#ad1d18"},"venue":{"name":"Toughsheet Community Stadium","city":"Horwich","capacity":28723},"pulled":[],"published":[]}