{"id":214079,"league_id":12,"league":"Championship","kickoff":1791640800,"home":"Watford","away":"Burnley","home_id":202,"away_id":10,"venue_id":197,"rank":4,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.594,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.35,1.16],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"No call on Watford against Burnley. The likely outcome is priced too short to be worth taking, and nothing else is sure enough to call.","flags":[{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","note":"Burnley have taken 0.50 points a game from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0, and 0.33 a game on the road."}],"lambda_home":1.3503241502303909,"lambda_away":1.1577204261059284,"corner_rate":9.65,"card_rate":0.174,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.718,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":946,"name":"Federico Ravaglia","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.822},{"id":3847,"name":"Soumaila Coulibaly","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.358},{"id":6029,"name":"Matthew Pollock","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.817},{"id":6697,"name":"Kévin Keben Biakolo","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.802},{"id":2450,"name":"Omar Haktab Traore","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.478},{"id":6033,"name":"Hector Kyprianou","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.812},{"id":6695,"name":"Edo Kayembe","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.598},{"id":6953,"name":"Rocco Vata","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.33},{"id":10615,"name":"Edoardo Bove","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.546},{"id":6035,"name":"Othmane Maamma","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.557},{"id":2576,"name":"Iker Bravo","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.74},{"id":6696,"name":"Mamadou Doumbia","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.63},{"id":6037,"name":"Luca Kjerrumgaard","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.527},{"id":6045,"name":"Amin Nabizada","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.515},{"id":976,"name":"Martín Payero","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.361},{"id":36527,"name":"Daniel Bachmann","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.289},{"id":9022,"name":"Branimir Mlačić","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.275},{"id":8870,"name":"Albert Eames","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.26},{"id":6133,"name":"Stephy Mavididi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.24},{"id":205735,"name":"Tomiwa Akinyimika","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.225},{"id":43064,"name":"James Clarridge","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.219},{"id":3524,"name":"Myron Boadu","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.179},{"id":205734,"name":"Raphael London","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.143}],"confidence":0.736},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":418,"name":"Max Weiss","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.712},{"id":420,"name":"Lucas Pires","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.38},{"id":6030,"name":"Max Alleyne","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.692},{"id":3362,"name":"Anel Ahmedhodžić","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.487},{"id":403,"name":"Kyle Walker","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.641},{"id":3335,"name":"Ugo Raghouber","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.633},{"id":421,"name":"Josh Laurent","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.623},{"id":413,"name":"Jacob Bruun Larsen","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.604},{"id":4829,"name":"Aaron Ramsey","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.605},{"id":414,"name":"Marcus Edwards","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.454},{"id":22868,"name":"Zeki Amdouni","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.585},{"id":22872,"name":"Connor Roberts","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.617},{"id":4828,"name":"Oliver Sonne","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.581},{"id":1651,"name":"Igor Júlio","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.434},{"id":4550,"name":"Largie Ramazani","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.418},{"id":4520,"name":"Bashir Humphreys","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.398},{"id":415,"name":"Hannibal Mejbri","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.36},{"id":1721,"name":"Grégoire Coudert","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.354},{"id":404,"name":"Hjalmar Ekdal","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.326},{"id":3391,"name":"Reo Hatate","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.326},{"id":5141,"name":"Mike Trésor","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.263},{"id":417,"name":"Armando Broja","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.262},{"id":2486,"name":"Andreas Hountondji","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.206}],"confidence":0.718},"unavailable":[{"id":2570,"name":"Jordan Zemura","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":6923,"name":"Kwadwo Baah","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Thigh Injury"},{"id":6031,"name":"Marc Bola","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Hamstring Injury"},{"id":3586,"name":"Dastan Satpaev","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Thigh Injury"},{"id":22873,"name":"Jordan Beyer","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Hamstring Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":946,"name":"Federico Ravaglia","side":"home"},{"id":3847,"name":"Soumaila Coulibaly","side":"home"},{"id":6029,"name":"Matthew Pollock","side":"home"},{"id":6697,"name":"Kévin Keben Biakolo","side":"home"},{"id":2450,"name":"Omar Haktab Traore","side":"home"},{"id":6033,"name":"Hector Kyprianou","side":"home"},{"id":6695,"name":"Edo Kayembe","side":"home"},{"id":6953,"name":"Rocco Vata","side":"home"},{"id":10615,"name":"Edoardo Bove","side":"home"},{"id":6035,"name":"Othmane Maamma","side":"home"},{"id":2576,"name":"Iker Bravo","side":"home"},{"id":6696,"name":"Mamadou Doumbia","side":"home"},{"id":6037,"name":"Luca Kjerrumgaard","side":"home"},{"id":6045,"name":"Amin Nabizada","side":"home"},{"id":976,"name":"Martín Payero","side":"home"},{"id":36527,"name":"Daniel Bachmann","side":"home"},{"id":9022,"name":"Branimir Mlačić","side":"home"},{"id":8870,"name":"Albert Eames","side":"home"},{"id":6133,"name":"Stephy Mavididi","side":"home"},{"id":205735,"name":"Tomiwa Akinyimika","side":"home"},{"id":43064,"name":"James Clarridge","side":"home"},{"id":3524,"name":"Myron Boadu","side":"home"},{"id":205734,"name":"Raphael London","side":"home"},{"id":6028,"name":"Jeremy Ngakia","side":"home"},{"id":6031,"name":"Marc Bola","side":"home"},{"id":54868,"name":"Michail Antonio","side":"home"},{"id":8376,"name":"Nikoloz Chikovani","side":"home"},{"id":6923,"name":"Kwadwo Baah","side":"home"},{"id":33512,"name":"Sam Walker","side":"home"},{"id":45693,"name":"Gabriel Ortelli","side":"home"},{"id":2570,"name":"Jordan Zemura","side":"home"},{"id":7174,"name":"Jack Grieves","side":"home"},{"id":2233,"name":"Krépin Diatta","side":"home"},{"id":418,"name":"Max Weiss","side":"away"},{"id":420,"name":"Lucas Pires","side":"away"},{"id":6030,"name":"Max Alleyne","side":"away"},{"id":3362,"name":"Anel Ahmedhodžić","side":"away"},{"id":403,"name":"Kyle Walker","side":"away"},{"id":3335,"name":"Ugo Raghouber","side":"away"},{"id":421,"name":"Josh Laurent","side":"away"},{"id":413,"name":"Jacob Bruun Larsen","side":"away"},{"id":4829,"name":"Aaron Ramsey","side":"away"},{"id":414,"name":"Marcus Edwards","side":"away"},{"id":22868,"name":"Zeki Amdouni","side":"away"},{"id":22872,"name":"Connor Roberts","side":"away"},{"id":4828,"name":"Oliver Sonne","side":"away"},{"id":1651,"name":"Igor Júlio","side":"away"},{"id":4550,"name":"Largie Ramazani","side":"away"},{"id":4520,"name":"Bashir Humphreys","side":"away"},{"id":415,"name":"Hannibal Mejbri","side":"away"},{"id":1721,"name":"Grégoire Coudert","side":"away"},{"id":404,"name":"Hjalmar Ekdal","side":"away"},{"id":3391,"name":"Reo Hatate","side":"away"},{"id":5141,"name":"Mike Trésor","side":"away"},{"id":417,"name":"Armando Broja","side":"away"},{"id":2486,"name":"Andreas Hountondji","side":"away"},{"id":5279,"name":"Shurandy Sambo","side":"away"},{"id":22873,"name":"Jordan Beyer","side":"away"},{"id":980,"name":"Jamie Vardy","side":"away"},{"id":3586,"name":"Dastan Satpaev","side":"away"},{"id":45016,"name":"Lluc Castell","side":"away"},{"id":26702,"name":"Michael Obafemi","side":"away"},{"id":66629,"name":"Oisin Cooney","side":"away"},{"id":36987,"name":"Ben Amos","side":"away"},{"id":66628,"name":"Troy Savage","side":"away"},{"id":408,"name":"Josh Cullen","side":"away"},{"id":8408,"name":"Jaydon Banel","side":"away"},{"id":4305,"name":"Ashley Barnes","side":"away"},{"id":8434,"name":"George Brierley","side":"away"},{"id":22871,"name":"Murray Campbell","side":"away"},{"id":22870,"name":"Ellis Clark","side":"away"},{"id":411,"name":"Zian Flemming","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":2570,"name":"Jordan Zemura","side":"home","team":"Watford","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LB","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-20","season":{"apps":7,"starts":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.016,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":6923,"name":"Kwadwo Baah","side":"home","team":"Watford","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-10","season":{"apps":1,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":1,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":6031,"name":"Marc Bola","side":"home","team":"Watford","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"LB","status":"out","reason":"Hamstring Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-10","season":{"apps":2,"starts":1,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Crawley Town","kickoff":1786197600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.021,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":6045,"name":"Amin Nabizada","side":"home","team":"Watford","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":4,"goals":3,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Southampton","kickoff":1786883400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.235,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":2576,"name":"Iker Bravo","side":"home","team":"Watford","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":9,"starts":8,"goals":1,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Southampton","kickoff":1786883400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.126,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":6953,"name":"Rocco Vata","side":"home","team":"Watford","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":9,"starts":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.003,"country":{"team":"Ireland","apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0}},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":35,"country":2}},{"id":3586,"name":"Dastan Satpaev","side":"away","team":"Burnley","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-20","season":{"apps":4,"starts":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.006,"country":{"team":null,"apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":22873,"name":"Jordan Beyer","side":"away","team":"Burnley","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Hamstring Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-20","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":22868,"name":"Zeki Amdouni","side":"away","team":"Burnley","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":5,"goals":2,"assists":1,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":4,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":4},"standout":{"opponent":"Wrexham","kickoff":1788893100,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["in_form"],"importance":0.149,"country":{"team":"Switzerland","apps":10,"goals":3,"assists":1,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1783818000},"lately":{"apps":4,"goals":3,"assists":1}},"load":{"games":4,"minutes":319,"country":4}},{"id":413,"name":"Jacob Bruun Larsen","side":"away","team":"Burnley","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":9,"starts":6,"goals":0,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Norwich City","kickoff":1788012000,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"1-4","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["chance_creator"],"importance":0.049,"country":null,"load":null}],"extras":null,"notable":[{"id":4164,"name":"Cyle Larin","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":6294,"name":"Will Lankshear","goals":6,"rank":2},{"id":8991,"name":"Mohamed Touré","goals":5,"rank":3},{"id":3905,"name":"Fer López","goals":4,"rank":4},{"id":1641,"name":"Jarrod Bowen","goals":4,"rank":5},{"id":1636,"name":"Konstantinos Mavropanos","goals":4,"rank":6},{"id":6100,"name":"Lyndon Dykes","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":6274,"name":"Tyreece Campbell","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":6537,"name":"Adam Idah","goals":3,"rank":9},{"id":6045,"name":"Amin Nabizada","goals":3,"rank":10},{"id":6450,"name":"Andri Guðjohnsen","goals":3,"rank":11},{"id":6248,"name":"Callum Lang","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":36514,"name":"Dominic Ballard","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":6523,"name":"Ethan Galbraith","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":6409,"name":"Finn Azaz","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 9","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":26,"home_wins":6,"draws":9,"away_wins":11,"home_goals":33,"away_goals":39,"avg_total_goals":2.769230769230769,"home_win_rate":0.23076923076923078,"away_win_rate":0.4230769230769231,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Burnley","date":"2025-04-18T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Watford","score":"1-2","event_id":304392,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":10,"home_team_id":202},{"away":"Watford","date":"2024-12-21T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Burnley","score":"2-1","event_id":304134,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":202,"home_team_id":10},{"away":"Watford","date":"2023-02-14T20:00:00+00:00","home":"Burnley","score":"1-1","event_id":315104,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":202,"home_team_id":10},{"away":"Burnley","date":"2022-08-12T19:00:00+00:00","home":"Watford","score":"1-0","event_id":314724,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":10,"home_team_id":202},{"away":"Burnley","date":"2022-04-30T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Watford","score":"1-2","event_id":321055,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":10,"home_team_id":202},{"away":"Watford","date":"2022-02-05T18:00:00+00:00","home":"Burnley","score":"0-0","event_id":320852,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":202,"home_team_id":10},{"away":"Watford","date":"2020-06-25T17:00:00+00:00","home":"Burnley","score":"1-0","event_id":328711,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":202,"home_team_id":10},{"away":"Burnley","date":"2019-11-23T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Watford","score":"0-3","event_id":328526,"away_score":3,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":10,"home_team_id":202},{"away":"Burnley","date":"2019-01-19T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Watford","score":"0-0","event_id":335496,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":10,"home_team_id":202},{"away":"Watford","date":"2018-08-19T12:30:00+00:00","home":"Burnley","score":"1-3","event_id":335286,"away_score":3,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":202,"home_team_id":10}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":202,"position":20,"played":8,"points":8,"goal_diff":-3,"team_name":"Watford","won":2,"drawn":2,"lost":4,"goals_for":7,"goals_against":10,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":10,"position":24,"played":8,"points":4,"goal_diff":-8,"team_name":"Burnley","won":0,"drawn":4,"lost":4,"goals_for":9,"goals_against":17,"group":null},"size":24},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.67,"record":"1-1-4","goals_for":0.67,"goals_against":1.33,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"none","sequence":"DLLWLL","venue_ppg":1.33},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.5,"record":"0-3-3","goals_for":1,"goals_against":2,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"winless 6","sequence":"LDLDLD","venue_ppg":0.33}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Watford are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.037,"players":[{"player":"Marc Bola","role":"DEF","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.021,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Jordan Zemura","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.016,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Kwadwo Baah","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":0},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.1}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Burnley are without 2 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.006,"players":[{"player":"Dastan Satpaev","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.006,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Jordan Beyer","role":"DEF","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":0},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.1}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.718,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.282,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":37,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":20,"points":8,"games_left":37,"gap_to_leader":9,"gap_to_safety":1,"gap_to_europe":5},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":24,"points":4,"games_left":37,"gap_to_leader":13,"gap_to_safety":-3,"gap_to_europe":9},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Alessio Dionisi is 14 games into the job at Watford, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Alessio Dionisi","matches_in_charge":14,"tenure_days":218,"ppm":1.07,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":0.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nicky Hayen has 17 matches in charge at Burnley, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Nicky Hayen","matches_in_charge":17,"tenure_days":239,"ppm":0.47,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":0.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"THIN","note":"Watford have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.","evidence":{"daysRest":null,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Burnley come in on 21 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":21,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":21},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.192,"defence":-0.042,"effective_matches":15.3,"shrunk":0.34},"away":{"attack":-0.056,"defence":-0.091,"effective_matches":7.1,"shrunk":0.53}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":49.3,"shots":14.6,"xg_per_shot":0.085,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.331,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.24},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":54.3,"shots":14.2,"xg_per_shot":0.078,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.417,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.11},"possession_gap":-4.9},"strength":0.197,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Watford are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.24,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Burnley are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.11,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"114 yellow cards in this referee's last 35 games, where 134 would be usual in this league, and 6 reds.","evidence":{"matches":35,"yellows_per_match":3.26,"reds_per_match":0.171,"league_yellows_per_match":3.82,"league_reds_per_match":0.106,"yellow_ratio":0.85,"red_ratio":1.62},"strength":0.133,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-3.3}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":15.2,"temperature_c":18,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.20884621743605333},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4540,"created_at":"2026-10-04T02:15:23Z","event":{"id":214079,"event_date":"2026-10-10T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":202,"home_team":"Watford","away_team_id":10,"away_team":"Burnley","league_id":12,"league_name":"Championship"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":41.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4116,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1791466080,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ed2127","away":"#760a54"},"venue":{"name":"Vicarage Road","city":"Watford","capacity":22200},"pulled":[],"published":[]}