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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Swansea City are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.23,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Norwich City have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.35,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"116 yellow cards in this referee's last 37 games, where 141 would be usual in this league, and 3 reds.","evidence":{"matches":37,"yellows_per_match":3.14,"reds_per_match":0.081,"league_yellows_per_match":3.82,"league_reds_per_match":0.106,"yellow_ratio":0.82,"red_ratio":0.76},"strength":0.162,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-4.1}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":11.8,"temperature_c":16,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.20884621743605333},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Neither of these is in good shape underneath the results. Swansea City are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. Meanwhile, Norwich City are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. On top of that, they have conceded 23 in their last ten from chances that would usually cost about 13. They have been punished for very little. The side that stops giving up the better chances first takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4581,"created_at":"2026-10-04T02:15:24Z","event":{"id":214078,"event_date":"2026-10-10T11:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":208,"home_team":"Swansea City","away_team_id":209,"away_team":"Norwich City","league_id":12,"league_name":"Championship"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":39.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3918,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1791462588,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#9e9894","away":"#0f8d3f"},"venue":{"name":"Swansea.com Stadium","city":"Swansea","capacity":20827},"pulled":[],"published":[]}