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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Charlton Athletic have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.3,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bristol City have scored 5 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.4,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"57 yellow cards in this referee's last 16 games, where 61 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 16 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":16,"yellows_per_match":3.56,"reds_per_match":0.063,"league_yellows_per_match":3.82,"league_reds_per_match":0.106,"yellow_ratio":0.93,"red_ratio":0.59,"sample":16,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":13.2,"temperature_c":18,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.20884621743605333},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Bristol City are the side doing the right things underneath the results. Bristol City are happy without the ball: in two of the four games they had less of it, they still made the better chances. On top of that, they have lost three of their last ten games in which they made the better chances. Their football is better than their results. If that carries on, Bristol City should have the better of it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4586,"created_at":"2026-10-04T02:15:24Z","event":{"id":214072,"event_date":"2026-10-10T11:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":201,"home_team":"Charlton Athletic","away_team_id":220,"away_team":"Bristol City","league_id":12,"league_name":"Championship"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":41.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4131,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1791466147,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#c71028","away":"#ec262c"},"venue":{"name":"The Valley","city":"London","capacity":27111},"pulled":[],"published":[]}