{"id":214065,"league_id":12,"league":"Championship","kickoff":1789907400,"home":"Norwich City","away":"Bolton Wanderers","home_id":209,"away_id":1247,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[3,4],"colors":{"home":"#0f8d3f","away":"#263c7e"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":1.14,"bookmaker":"William Hill","model_prob":0.837837837837838,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 1.14. Norwich City are the better side at 1.56 to 1.34, though not by the margin the confidence number might suggest — the cushion here is the draw, not the win. What the confidence number does not see: coming in on 2.8 days' rest, Norwich City arrive meaningfully short of fresh. Everything above points the same way: Norwich City avoiding defeat. 84% likely, returning 14p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"LOST","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"missed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":7,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal away from settling the other way."}},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.15,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","model_prob":0.825,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.15. 1.56 expected for Norwich City, 1.34 for Bolton Wanderers — neither side projects to run away with it, and the total is what matters here. Worth holding against it — Norwich City have had only 2.8 days since their last match. That is the case, and it ends at more than 1.5 goals in it. That puts it at 83%, priced 1.15 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":6,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":7,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}