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plays.","evidence":{"count":8,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0.059,"combined_importance":0.023,"players":[{"player":"Mitchell Weiser","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.059,"importance":0.017,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Jens Stage","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.006,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Felix Agu","role":"DEF","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Keke Topp","role":"ATT","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Moussa Ndiaye","role":"DEF","reason":"Groin Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Paul Erevbenagie","role":"MID","reason":"Ankle 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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":25,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":11,"points":9,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":9,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":4},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":15,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":3,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":-2},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SV Werder Bremen lost the reverse fixture by 4 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":4,"beaten_side":"SV Werder Bremen","reverse_score":"0-4","reverse_date":1765737000},"strength":0.48,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3.6}]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sebastian Hoeneß has 31 matches in charge at VfB Stuttgart, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Sebastian Hoeneß","matches_in_charge":31,"tenure_days":218,"ppm":1.71,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Daniel Thioune has 25 matches in charge at SV Werder Bremen, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Daniel Thioune","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":218,"ppm":1.52,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"VfB Stuttgart come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.9895833333333335,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SV Werder Bremen come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.125,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.159,"defence":-0.032,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39},"away":{"attack":-0.029,"defence":0.012,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":55.3,"shots":16.6,"xg_per_shot":0.123,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.356,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.22},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":48.6,"shots":15.4,"xg_per_shot":0.108,"corners":4.7,"corners_per_shot":0.303,"finishing_vs_xg":0.43},"possession_gap":6.6},"strength":0.266,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"VfB Stuttgart are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.22,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SV Werder Bremen have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.43,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"99 yellow cards in this referee's last 20 games, where 74 would be usual in this league, and 6 reds. — though 20 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":20,"yellows_per_match":4.95,"reds_per_match":0.3,"league_yellows_per_match":3.72,"league_reds_per_match":0.163,"yellow_ratio":1.33,"red_ratio":1.84,"sample":20,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 477 km for SV Werder Bremen.","evidence":{"travel_km":477},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":11.3,"temperature_c":6,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.31823818565470324},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Stuttgart should edge this one despite a patchy home record and a run of three defeats from six. Look beneath the surface, because the hosts have built superior openings in six of their last eight outings, whereas Bremen rely on blistering finishing where nineteen goals arrived from chances worth roughly thirteen. Bremen are trending upward with clearly improved chance creation across four recent fixtures, yet that hot streak masks a visiting defense missing key defensive cover through injury, including a sidelined fullback out with a calf problem and another midfielder sidelined until late November. Stuttgart will dominate the play through superior chance generation, but the match swings entirely on whether that clinical visitor streak can outgun the hosts.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7016,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:22Z","event":{"id":213748,"event_date":"2026-11-07T17:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":84,"home_team":"VfB Stuttgart","away_team_id":88,"away_team":"SV Werder Bremen","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":57.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5759,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213748,"event_date":"2026-11-07T17:30:00Z","home_team":"VfB Stuttgart","away_team":"SV Werder Bremen","polymarket_event_id":"1250619","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":666.118277,"volume_1wk":1361.54793,"volume_1mo":1361.54793,"volume_1yr":1361.54793,"open_interest":1621.957339,"liquidity_clob":23324.9194,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.57,"best_ask":0.58,"change_1d":-0.02,"change_1wk":-0.07,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.16,"VfB Stuttgart 0 - 0 SV Werder Bremen":0.0255,"VfB Stuttgart 0 - 1 SV Werder Bremen":0.0325,"VfB Stuttgart 0 - 2 SV Werder Bremen":0.0225,"VfB Stuttgart 0 - 3 SV Werder Bremen":0.0165,"VfB Stuttgart 0 - 4 SV Werder Bremen":0.0255,"VfB Stuttgart 0 - 5 SV Werder Bremen":0.15,"VfB Stuttgart 1 - 0 SV Werder Bremen":0.056,"VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 SV Werder Bremen":0.08,"VfB Stuttgart 1 - 2 SV Werder Bremen":0.055,"VfB Stuttgart 1 - 3 SV Werder Bremen":0.025,"VfB Stuttgart 1 - 4 SV Werder Bremen":0.015,"VfB Stuttgart 1 - 5 SV Werder Bremen":0.128,"VfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 SV Werder Bremen":0.0615,"VfB Stuttgart 2 - 1 SV Werder Bremen":0.09,"VfB Stuttgart 2 - 2 SV Werder Bremen":0.07,"VfB Stuttgart 2 - 3 SV Werder Bremen":0.03,"VfB Stuttgart 2 - 4 SV Werder Bremen":0.009,"VfB Stuttgart 2 - 5 SV Werder Bremen":0.043,"VfB Stuttgart 3 - 0 SV Werder Bremen":0.05,"VfB Stuttgart 3 - 1 SV Werder Bremen":0.07,"VfB Stuttgart 3 - 2 SV Werder Bremen":0.05,"VfB Stuttgart 3 - 3 SV Werder Bremen":0.025,"VfB Stuttgart 3 - 4 SV Werder Bremen":0.0085,"VfB Stuttgart 3 - 5 SV Werder Bremen":0.13,"VfB Stuttgart 4 - 0 SV Werder Bremen":0.0285,"VfB Stuttgart 4 - 1 SV Werder Bremen":0.037,"VfB Stuttgart 4 - 2 SV Werder Bremen":0.0255,"VfB Stuttgart 4 - 3 SV Werder Bremen":0.011,"VfB Stuttgart 4 - 4 SV Werder Bremen":0.006,"VfB Stuttgart 4 - 5 SV Werder Bremen":0.1295,"VfB Stuttgart 5 - 0 SV Werder Bremen":0.0135,"VfB Stuttgart 5 - 1 SV Werder Bremen":0.018,"VfB Stuttgart 5 - 2 SV Werder Bremen":0.018,"VfB Stuttgart 5 - 3 SV Werder Bremen":0.0075,"VfB Stuttgart 5 - 4 SV Werder Bremen":0.1405,"VfB Stuttgart 5 - 5 SV Werder Bremen":0.0395},"updated_at":"2026-11-06T11:57:13Z"}},"computed_at":1793981317,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#e32219","away":"#209255"},"venue":{"name":"MHP Arena","city":"Stuttgart","capacity":60449},"pulled":[],"published":[]}