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FC Union Berlin are without 5 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.027,"players":[{"player":"Felix Uduokhai","role":"DEF","reason":"red_card_suspension","goal_share":0,"importance":0.027,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Andrej Ilić","role":"ATT","reason":"Appendicitis","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Andrik Markgraf","role":"DEF","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Robert Skov","role":"MID","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Stanley Nsoki","role":"DEF","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.9},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.723,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.277,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":25,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":16,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":2,"gap_to_safety":7,"gap_to_europe":-3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":16,"points":7,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":-2,"gap_to_europe":6},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Julian Schuster has 33 matches in charge at SC Freiburg, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Julian Schuster","matches_in_charge":33,"tenure_days":219,"ppm":1.97,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Mauro Lustrinelli is 11 games into the job at 1. FC Union Berlin, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Mauro Lustrinelli","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":80,"ppm":1.18,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FC Union Berlin come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.083333333333333,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.004,"defence":0.112,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39},"away":{"attack":-0.162,"defence":-0.041,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SC Freiburg average 9 points more possession than 1. FC Union Berlin, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51.3,"shots":15.3,"xg_per_shot":0.096,"corners":5.4,"corners_per_shot":0.351,"finishing_vs_xg":0.62},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":42.5,"shots":12.2,"xg_per_shot":0.11,"corners":3.9,"corners_per_shot":0.32,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.17},"possession_gap":8.8},"strength":0.353,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":1.9},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.9}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SC Freiburg have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.62,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FC Union Berlin are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.17,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"128 yellow cards in this referee's last 35 games, where 130 would be usual in this league, and 9 reds.","evidence":{"matches":35,"yellows_per_match":3.66,"reds_per_match":0.257,"league_yellows_per_match":3.72,"league_reds_per_match":0.163,"yellow_ratio":0.98,"red_ratio":1.58},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 641 km for 1. FC Union Berlin.","evidence":{"travel_km":641},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":22.7,"temperature_c":12,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.31823818565470324},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Neither of these is in good shape underneath the results. SC Freiburg are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. As for the other side, 1. FC Union Berlin have been out-created in six of their last nine games. And away from home, they have been out-created in all of their last four away games. The side that stops giving up the better chances first takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7241,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:25Z","event":{"id":213745,"event_date":"2026-11-08T16:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":89,"home_team":"SC Freiburg","away_team_id":83,"away_team":"1. FC Union Berlin","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":63.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6328,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213745,"event_date":"2026-11-08T16:30:00Z","home_team":"SC Freiburg","away_team":"1. FC Union Berlin","polymarket_event_id":"1257312","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":166.368203,"volume_1wk":576.967978,"volume_1mo":576.967978,"volume_1yr":576.967978,"open_interest":1151.792682,"liquidity_clob":16321.5108,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.65,"best_ask":0.66,"change_1d":-0.01,"change_1wk":0.015,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.165,"SC Freiburg 0 - 0 1. FC Union Berlin":0.045,"SC Freiburg 0 - 1 1. FC Union Berlin":0.042,"SC Freiburg 0 - 2 1. FC Union Berlin":0.017,"SC Freiburg 0 - 3 1. FC Union Berlin":0.007,"SC Freiburg 0 - 4 1. FC Union Berlin":0.025,"SC Freiburg 0 - 5 1. FC Union Berlin":0.05,"SC Freiburg 1 - 0 1. FC Union Berlin":0.105,"SC Freiburg 1 - 1 1. FC Union Berlin":0.09,"SC Freiburg 1 - 2 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0415,"SC Freiburg 1 - 3 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0175,"SC Freiburg 1 - 4 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0245,"SC Freiburg 1 - 5 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0395,"SC Freiburg 2 - 0 1. FC Union Berlin":0.11,"SC Freiburg 2 - 1 1. FC Union Berlin":0.11,"SC Freiburg 2 - 2 1. FC Union Berlin":0.051,"SC Freiburg 2 - 3 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0125,"SC Freiburg 2 - 4 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0245,"SC Freiburg 2 - 5 1. FC Union Berlin":0.029,"SC Freiburg 3 - 0 1. FC Union Berlin":0.075,"SC Freiburg 3 - 1 1. FC Union Berlin":0.07,"SC Freiburg 3 - 2 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0345,"SC Freiburg 3 - 3 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0095,"SC Freiburg 3 - 4 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0395,"SC Freiburg 3 - 5 1. FC Union Berlin":0.165,"SC Freiburg 4 - 0 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0295,"SC Freiburg 4 - 1 1. FC Union Berlin":0.029,"SC Freiburg 4 - 2 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0135,"SC Freiburg 4 - 3 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0125,"SC Freiburg 4 - 4 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0345,"SC Freiburg 4 - 5 1. FC Union Berlin":0.1625,"SC Freiburg 5 - 0 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0195,"SC Freiburg 5 - 1 1. FC Union Berlin":0.0195,"SC Freiburg 5 - 2 1. FC Union Berlin":0.014,"SC Freiburg 5 - 3 1. FC Union Berlin":0.16,"SC Freiburg 5 - 4 1. FC Union Berlin":0.1725,"SC Freiburg 5 - 5 1. FC Union Berlin":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T04:57:18Z"}},"computed_at":1794046772,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#423b45","away":"#e21223"},"venue":{"name":"Europa-Park-Stadion","city":"Freiburg","capacity":34700},"pulled":[],"published":[]}