{"id":213744,"league_id":5,"league":"Bundesliga","kickoff":1794061800,"home":"RB Leipzig","away":"FC Augsburg","home_id":80,"away_id":90,"venue_id":78,"rank":2,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.676,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[2.6,1.36],"read":{"text":"RB Leipzig to win, with goals","side":"home"},"pass":"Passing on RB Leipzig v FC Augsburg. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","note":"FC Augsburg lost the reverse fixture by 6 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return."}],"lambda_home":2.5964823199546325,"lambda_away":1.3648569505005772,"corner_rate":10.38,"card_rate":0.151,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.791,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":2902,"name":"Maarten Vandevoordt","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.774},{"id":2891,"name":"David Raum","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.812},{"id":2889,"name":"Willi Orbán","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.891},{"id":2890,"name":"Castello Lukeba","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.748},{"id":2888,"name":"Ridle Baku","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.573},{"id":1070,"name":"Neil El Aynaoui","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.763},{"id":2898,"name":"Ezechiel Banzuzi","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.757},{"id":2897,"name":"Antonio Nusa","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.828},{"id":1996,"name":"Christopher Nkunku","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.481},{"id":490,"name":"Brajan Gruda","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.64},{"id":4104,"name":"Rômulo","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.696},{"id":2900,"name":"Tidiam Gomis","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.503},{"id":8563,"name":"Benjamin Henrichs","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.436},{"id":2873,"name":"Rocco Reitz","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.419},{"id":1561,"name":"Ørjan Nyland","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.342},{"id":2894,"name":"Christoph Baumgartner","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.339},{"id":2893,"name":"Nicolas Seiwald","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.312},{"id":2906,"name":"Andrija Maksimović","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.291},{"id":37708,"name":"Abdoul Kone","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.281},{"id":3854,"name":"Assan Ouédraogo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.219},{"id":2899,"name":"Johan Bakayoko","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.197},{"id":5137,"name":"Samba Konaté","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.179},{"id":405,"name":"Maxime Estève","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.178}],"confidence":0.859},"away":{"formation":"3-4-2-1","players":[{"id":2396,"name":"Finn Dahmen","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.824},{"id":8759,"name":"Hennes Behrens","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.826},{"id":2398,"name":"Chrislain Matsima","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.829},{"id":4003,"name":"Jeffrey Gouweleeuw","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.368},{"id":3056,"name":"Young-woo Seol","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.337},{"id":2404,"name":"Fabian Rieder","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.842},{"id":2402,"name":"Han-Noah Massengo","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.751},{"id":2401,"name":"Robin Fellhauer","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.737},{"id":2449,"name":"Arijon Ibrahimović","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.571},{"id":8530,"name":"Michael Gregoritsch","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.569},{"id":2409,"name":"Marius Wolf","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.533},{"id":2400,"name":"Anton Kade","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.435},{"id":8548,"name":"Yannik Keitel","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.373},{"id":1230,"name":"Rodrigo Ribeiro","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.37},{"id":2405,"name":"Mert Kömür","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.341},{"id":2411,"name":"Alexis Claude-Maurice","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.266},{"id":5798,"name":"Uchenna Ogundu","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.084},{"id":5656,"name":"Tim Schnitzer","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.059},{"id":2412,"name":"Nediljko Labrović","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":61830,"name":"Loris Husic","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01}],"confidence":0.791},"unavailable":[{"id":2903,"name":"Max Finkgräfe","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Thigh Injury"},{"id":1502,"name":"Abdulai Juma Bah","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"red_card_suspension"},{"id":29368,"name":"Calvin Brackelmann","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Head Injury"},{"id":79449,"name":"Faik Sakar","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Ankle Injury"},{"id":2397,"name":"Noahkai Banks","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knee Injury"},{"id":27759,"name":"Sima Suso","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Unknown"},{"id":4919,"name":"Steve Mounié","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Unknown"}]},"people":[{"id":2902,"name":"Maarten Vandevoordt","side":"home"},{"id":2891,"name":"David Raum","side":"home"},{"id":2889,"name":"Willi Orbán","side":"home"},{"id":2890,"name":"Castello Lukeba","side":"home"},{"id":2888,"name":"Ridle Baku","side":"home"},{"id":1070,"name":"Neil El Aynaoui","side":"home"},{"id":2898,"name":"Ezechiel Banzuzi","side":"home"},{"id":2897,"name":"Antonio Nusa","side":"home"},{"id":1996,"name":"Christopher Nkunku","side":"home"},{"id":490,"name":"Brajan Gruda","side":"home"},{"id":4104,"name":"Rômulo","side":"home"},{"id":2900,"name":"Tidiam Gomis","side":"home"},{"id":8563,"name":"Benjamin Henrichs","side":"home"},{"id":2873,"name":"Rocco Reitz","side":"home"},{"id":1561,"name":"Ørjan Nyland","side":"home"},{"id":2894,"name":"Christoph Baumgartner","side":"home"},{"id":2893,"name":"Nicolas Seiwald","side":"home"},{"id":2906,"name":"Andrija Maksimović","side":"home"},{"id":37708,"name":"Abdoul Kone","side":"home"},{"id":3854,"name":"Assan Ouédraogo","side":"home"},{"id":2899,"name":"Johan Bakayoko","side":"home"},{"id":5137,"name":"Samba Konaté","side":"home"},{"id":405,"name":"Maxime Estève","side":"home"},{"id":2901,"name":"Lukas Klostermann","side":"home"},{"id":2903,"name":"Max Finkgräfe","side":"home"},{"id":397,"name":"Marc Guiu","side":"home"},{"id":12075,"name":"Leopold Zingerle","side":"home"},{"id":48315,"name":"Viggo Gebel","side":"home"},{"id":5634,"name":"Benno Kaltefleiter","side":"home"},{"id":2396,"name":"Finn Dahmen","side":"away"},{"id":8759,"name":"Hennes Behrens","side":"away"},{"id":2398,"name":"Chrislain Matsima","side":"away"},{"id":4003,"name":"Jeffrey Gouweleeuw","side":"away"},{"id":3056,"name":"Young-woo Seol","side":"away"},{"id":2404,"name":"Fabian Rieder","side":"away"},{"id":2402,"name":"Han-Noah Massengo","side":"away"},{"id":2401,"name":"Robin Fellhauer","side":"away"},{"id":2449,"name":"Arijon Ibrahimović","side":"away"},{"id":8530,"name":"Michael Gregoritsch","side":"away"},{"id":2409,"name":"Marius Wolf","side":"away"},{"id":2400,"name":"Anton Kade","side":"away"},{"id":8548,"name":"Yannik Keitel","side":"away"},{"id":1230,"name":"Rodrigo Ribeiro","side":"away"},{"id":2405,"name":"Mert Kömür","side":"away"},{"id":2411,"name":"Alexis Claude-Maurice","side":"away"},{"id":5798,"name":"Uchenna Ogundu","side":"away"},{"id":5656,"name":"Tim Schnitzer","side":"away"},{"id":2412,"name":"Nediljko Labrović","side":"away"},{"id":61830,"name":"Loris Husic","side":"away"},{"id":29368,"name":"Calvin Brackelmann","side":"away"},{"id":1502,"name":"Abdulai Juma Bah","side":"away"},{"id":2397,"name":"Noahkai Banks","side":"away"},{"id":4919,"name":"Steve Mounié","side":"away"},{"id":48255,"name":"Tom Wisbereit","side":"away"},{"id":27759,"name":"Sima Suso","side":"away"},{"id":27756,"name":"Tim Breithaupt","side":"away"},{"id":79449,"name":"Faik Sakar","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":2903,"name":"Max Finkgräfe","side":"home","team":"RB Leipzig","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"LB","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-30","season":{"apps":5,"starts":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.006,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":405,"name":"Maxime Estève","side":"home","team":"RB Leipzig","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"doubtful","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-08","season":{"apps":4,"starts":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.014,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":2897,"name":"Antonio Nusa","side":"home","team":"RB Leipzig","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":14,"starts":13,"goals":6,"assists":7,"big_chances":11,"clean_sheets":7,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":14,"tracked_starts":13},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":4,"scoredIn":2,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Hamburger SV","kickoff":1789306200,"goals":1,"assists":2,"score":"5-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","top_creator","best_performer","chance_creator","in_form"],"importance":0.341,"country":{"team":"Norway","apps":10,"goals":1,"assists":1,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":6,"goals":1,"assists":0,"ended":1783803600},"lately":null},"load":{"games":3,"minutes":191,"country":0}},{"id":4104,"name":"Rômulo","side":"home","team":"RB Leipzig","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":7,"goals":4,"assists":0,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"SV 07 Elversberg","kickoff":1792848600,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"4-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.111,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":239,"country":0}},{"id":29368,"name":"Calvin Brackelmann","side":"away","team":"FC Augsburg","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Head Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-07","season":{"apps":7,"starts":6,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"SV Werder Bremen","kickoff":1789824600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.053,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1502,"name":"Abdulai Juma Bah","side":"away","team":"FC Augsburg","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"red_card_suspension","expected_return":"2026-11-07","season":{"apps":4,"starts":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.011,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":93,"country":0}},{"id":79449,"name":"Faik Sakar","side":"away","team":"FC Augsburg","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"MID","status":"out","reason":"Ankle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":2397,"name":"Noahkai Banks","side":"away","team":"FC Augsburg","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Knee Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":5,"starts":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.031,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":27759,"name":"Sima Suso","side":"away","team":"FC Augsburg","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"DM","status":"out","reason":"Unknown","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":8530,"name":"Michael Gregoritsch","side":"away","team":"FC Augsburg","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":6,"goals":5,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen","kickoff":1789219800,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer"],"importance":0.147,"country":{"team":"Austria","apps":6,"goals":1,"assists":1,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":1,"ended":1783018800},"lately":null},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":95,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":80,"away":90},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":1},"below":{"w":5,"d":0,"l":2}},"away":{"above":{"w":1,"d":2,"l":3},"below":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":0}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":263,"name":"Martín Demichelis","vs":null},"away":{"id":240,"name":"Manuel Baum","vs":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":2,"last":{"kickoff":1772893800,"score":"1-2","result":"L"}}}},"best_xi":[{"id":2889,"name":"Willi Orbán","team_id":80,"position":"D","matches":8,"goals":1,"assists":0},{"id":2897,"name":"Antonio Nusa","team_id":80,"position":"F","matches":8,"goals":4,"assists":6}],"players":{"405":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Burnley","fee":25000000,"at":1784246400}},"1502":{"caps":9,"goals":1,"country":"Sierra Leone","signed":null},"2889":{"caps":59,"goals":1,"country":"Hungary","signed":null},"2897":{"caps":33,"goals":9,"country":"Norway","signed":null},"4104":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Göztepe","fee":20500000,"at":1755216000}},"8530":{"caps":81,"goals":18,"country":"Austria","signed":null},"27759":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Fortuna Düsseldorf","fee":1600000,"at":1783641600}}}},"notable":[{"id":1646,"name":"Niclas Füllkrug","goals":9,"rank":1},{"id":2145,"name":"Patrik Schick","goals":7,"rank":2},{"id":2467,"name":"Michael Olise","goals":6,"rank":3},{"id":8501,"name":"Younes Ebnoutalib","goals":6,"rank":4},{"id":4516,"name":"Ermedin Demirović","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":8530,"name":"Michael Gregoritsch","goals":5,"rank":6},{"id":2410,"name":"Phillip Tietz","goals":5,"rank":7},{"id":2897,"name":"Antonio Nusa","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":1996,"name":"Christopher Nkunku","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":2466,"name":"Harry Kane","goals":4,"rank":10},{"id":1183,"name":"Igor Matanović","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":2465,"name":"Luis Díaz","goals":4,"rank":12},{"id":41375,"name":"Maurice Krattenmacher","goals":4,"rank":13},{"id":4104,"name":"Rômulo","goals":4,"rank":14},{"id":1180,"name":"Yuito Suzuki","goals":4,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 9","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":24,"home_wins":14,"draws":7,"away_wins":3,"home_goals":48,"away_goals":20,"avg_total_goals":2.8333333333333335,"home_win_rate":0.5833333333333334,"away_win_rate":0.125,"recent_matches":[{"away":"FC Augsburg","date":"2026-03-07T14:30:00+00:00","home":"RB Leipzig","score":"2-1","event_id":1679,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":90,"home_team_id":80},{"away":"RB Leipzig","date":"2025-10-25T13:30:00+00:00","home":"FC Augsburg","score":"0-6","event_id":1522,"away_score":6,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":80,"home_team_id":90},{"away":"RB Leipzig","date":"2025-02-14T19:30:00+00:00","home":"FC Augsburg","score":"0-0","event_id":303756,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":80,"home_team_id":90},{"away":"FC Augsburg","date":"2024-09-28T13:30:00+00:00","home":"RB Leipzig","score":"4-0","event_id":303606,"away_score":0,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":90,"home_team_id":80},{"away":"RB Leipzig","date":"2024-02-10T14:30:00+00:00","home":"FC Augsburg","score":"2-2","event_id":309272,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":80,"home_team_id":90},{"away":"FC Augsburg","date":"2023-09-16T13:30:00+00:00","home":"RB Leipzig","score":"3-0","event_id":309118,"away_score":0,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":90,"home_team_id":80},{"away":"FC Augsburg","date":"2023-04-15T13:30:00+00:00","home":"RB Leipzig","score":"3-2","event_id":314637,"away_score":2,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":90,"home_team_id":80},{"away":"RB Leipzig","date":"2022-10-22T13:30:00+00:00","home":"FC Augsburg","score":"3-3","event_id":314484,"away_score":3,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":80,"home_team_id":90},{"away":"FC Augsburg","date":"2022-05-08T17:30:00+00:00","home":"RB Leipzig","score":"4-0","event_id":318440,"away_score":0,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":90,"home_team_id":80},{"away":"RB Leipzig","date":"2021-12-15T19:30:00+00:00","home":"FC Augsburg","score":"1-1","event_id":318285,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":80,"home_team_id":90}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":80,"position":4,"played":8,"points":15,"goal_diff":11,"team_name":"RB Leipzig","won":5,"drawn":0,"lost":3,"goals_for":22,"goals_against":11,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":90,"position":10,"played":8,"points":9,"goal_diff":3,"team_name":"FC Augsburg","won":2,"drawn":3,"lost":3,"goals_for":18,"goals_against":15,"group":null},"size":18},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.5,"record":"3-0-3","goals_for":2,"goals_against":2.33,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"LLWWWL","venue_ppg":1.5},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1,"record":"1-3-2","goals_for":2.17,"goals_against":2.17,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"none","sequence":"DDLDWL","venue_ppg":1.5}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RB Leipzig are without 2 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.013,"players":[{"player":"Maxime Estève","role":"DEF","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.007,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Max Finkgräfe","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.006,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Augsburg are without 6 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":6,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.059,"combined_importance":0.095,"players":[{"player":"Calvin Brackelmann","role":"DEF","reason":"Head Injury","goal_share":0.059,"importance":0.053,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Noahkai Banks","role":"DEF","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.031,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Abdulai Juma Bah","role":"DEF","reason":"red_card_suspension","goal_share":0,"importance":0.011,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Faik Sakar","role":"MID","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"Sima Suso","role":"MID","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"Steve Mounié","role":"ATT","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4}]},"strength":0.237,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.9},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.5}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.791,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.209,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":25,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":4,"points":15,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":3,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":-2},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":10,"points":9,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":9,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":4},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Augsburg lost the reverse fixture by 6 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":6,"beaten_side":"FC Augsburg","reverse_score":"0-6","reverse_date":1761399000},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":4.5}]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Martín Demichelis is 14 games into the job at RB Leipzig, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Martín Demichelis","matches_in_charge":14,"tenure_days":79,"ppm":1.71,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manuel Baum has 23 matches in charge at FC Augsburg, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Manuel Baum","matches_in_charge":23,"tenure_days":218,"ppm":1.52,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.6,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Augsburg come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.228,"defence":0.07,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39},"away":{"attack":0.057,"defence":-0.141,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":50.8,"shots":15.2,"xg_per_shot":0.128,"corners":5.1,"corners_per_shot":0.335,"finishing_vs_xg":0.23},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46.9,"shots":17.8,"xg_per_shot":0.105,"corners":5.2,"corners_per_shot":0.291,"finishing_vs_xg":0.29},"possession_gap":3.9},"strength":0.157,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RB Leipzig are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.23,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Augsburg have scored 3 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.29,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"110 yellow cards in this referee's last 27 games, where 100 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds. — though 27 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":27,"yellows_per_match":4.07,"reds_per_match":0.185,"league_yellows_per_match":3.72,"league_reds_per_match":0.163,"yellow_ratio":1.1,"red_ratio":1.14,"sample":27,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 353 km for FC Augsburg.","evidence":{"travel_km":353},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":11.3,"temperature_c":16,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.31823818565470324},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Fourth-placed RB Leipzig should edge this contest because both teams are trending upward in attack, yet the hosts boast a sharper cutting edge through Rômulo and a superior creation rate in four of their last five home matches. Augsburg travel well and carry recent momentum into the fixture, but their defensive depth has taken a heavy hit with four absences at the back, leaving them vulnerable against a potent Leipzig forward line. The home side will control the tempo and generate cleaner openings, despite missing two defenders of their own. Ultimately, the decisive factor will be Rômulo converting his recent hot streak into the game-winning goal.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7104,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:23Z","event":{"id":213744,"event_date":"2026-11-07T14:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":80,"home_team":"RB Leipzig","away_team_id":90,"away_team":"FC Augsburg","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":64.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.648,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213744,"event_date":"2026-11-07T14:30:00Z","home_team":"RB Leipzig","away_team":"FC Augsburg","polymarket_event_id":"1250630","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":1347.925674,"volume_1wk":1493.164831,"volume_1mo":1493.164831,"volume_1yr":1493.164831,"open_interest":3326.217032,"liquidity_clob":22788.4513,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.66,"best_ask":0.67,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":-0.005,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.145,"RB Leipzig 0 - 0 FC Augsburg":0.0185,"RB Leipzig 0 - 1 FC Augsburg":0.0245,"RB Leipzig 0 - 2 FC Augsburg":0.017,"RB Leipzig 0 - 3 FC Augsburg":0.005,"RB Leipzig 0 - 4 FC Augsburg":0.0085,"RB Leipzig 0 - 5 FC Augsburg":0.1245,"RB Leipzig 1 - 0 FC Augsburg":0.051,"RB Leipzig 1 - 1 FC Augsburg":0.065,"RB Leipzig 1 - 2 FC Augsburg":0.04,"RB Leipzig 1 - 3 FC Augsburg":0.0175,"RB Leipzig 1 - 4 FC Augsburg":0.008,"RB Leipzig 1 - 5 FC Augsburg":0.064,"RB Leipzig 2 - 0 FC Augsburg":0.065,"RB Leipzig 2 - 1 FC Augsburg":0.09,"RB Leipzig 2 - 2 FC Augsburg":0.06,"RB Leipzig 2 - 3 FC Augsburg":0.026,"RB Leipzig 2 - 4 FC Augsburg":0.0085,"RB Leipzig 2 - 5 FC Augsburg":0.039,"RB Leipzig 3 - 0 FC Augsburg":0.06,"RB Leipzig 3 - 1 FC Augsburg":0.075,"RB Leipzig 3 - 2 FC Augsburg":0.0535,"RB Leipzig 3 - 3 FC Augsburg":0.0235,"RB Leipzig 3 - 4 FC Augsburg":0.009,"RB Leipzig 3 - 5 FC Augsburg":0.1,"RB Leipzig 4 - 0 FC Augsburg":0.0385,"RB Leipzig 4 - 1 FC Augsburg":0.05,"RB Leipzig 4 - 2 FC Augsburg":0.0315,"RB Leipzig 4 - 3 FC Augsburg":0.015,"RB Leipzig 4 - 4 FC Augsburg":0.0065,"RB Leipzig 4 - 5 FC Augsburg":0.1435,"RB Leipzig 5 - 0 FC Augsburg":0.0215,"RB Leipzig 5 - 1 FC Augsburg":0.0245,"RB Leipzig 5 - 2 FC Augsburg":0.016,"RB Leipzig 5 - 3 FC Augsburg":0.0105,"RB Leipzig 5 - 4 FC Augsburg":0.1245,"RB Leipzig 5 - 5 FC Augsburg":0.039},"updated_at":"2026-11-06T14:57:16Z"}},"computed_at":1793981311,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d41146","away":"#ba3833"},"venue":{"name":"Red Bull Arena","city":"Leipzig","capacity":47069},"pulled":[],"published":[]}