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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.31823818565470324},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7107,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:23Z","event":{"id":213742,"event_date":"2026-11-07T14:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":92,"home_team":"Borussia Dortmund","away_team_id":1833,"away_team":"SV 07 Elversberg","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":72.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7255,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213742,"event_date":"2026-11-07T14:30:00Z","home_team":"Borussia Dortmund","away_team":"SV 07 Elversberg","polymarket_event_id":"1250626","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":18291.253975,"volume_1wk":19618.544091,"volume_1mo":19624.564291,"volume_1yr":19624.564291,"open_interest":20710.516000000003,"liquidity_clob":97473.6023,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.73,"best_ask":0.74,"change_1d":-0.01,"change_1wk":-0.03,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.125,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 0 - 0 SV 07 Elversberg":0.0245,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 0 - 1 SV 07 Elversberg":0.0215,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 0 - 2 SV 07 Elversberg":0.012,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 0 - 3 SV 07 Elversberg":0.005,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 0 - 4 SV 07 Elversberg":0.004,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 0 - 5 SV 07 Elversberg":0.0075,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 1 - 0 SV 07 Elversberg":0.07,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 1 - 1 SV 07 Elversberg":0.065,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 1 - 2 SV 07 Elversberg":0.033,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 1 - 3 SV 07 Elversberg":0.011,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 1 - 4 SV 07 Elversberg":0.004,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 1 - 5 SV 07 Elversberg":0.0075,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 2 - 0 SV 07 Elversberg":0.091,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 2 - 1 SV 07 Elversberg":0.095,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 2 - 2 SV 07 Elversberg":0.045,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 2 - 3 SV 07 Elversberg":0.014,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 2 - 4 SV 07 Elversberg":0.004,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 2 - 5 SV 07 Elversberg":0.0075,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 3 - 0 SV 07 Elversberg":0.08,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 3 - 1 SV 07 Elversberg":0.085,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 3 - 2 SV 07 Elversberg":0.0435,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 3 - 3 SV 07 Elversberg":0.0125,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 3 - 4 SV 07 Elversberg":0.004,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 3 - 5 SV 07 Elversberg":0.135,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 4 - 0 SV 07 Elversberg":0.055,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 4 - 1 SV 07 Elversberg":0.0525,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 4 - 2 SV 07 Elversberg":0.026,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 4 - 3 SV 07 Elversberg":0.0075,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 4 - 4 SV 07 Elversberg":0.0245,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 4 - 5 SV 07 Elversberg":0.149,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 5 - 0 SV 07 Elversberg":0.0285,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 5 - 1 SV 07 Elversberg":0.016,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 5 - 2 SV 07 Elversberg":0.0115,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 5 - 3 SV 07 Elversberg":0.008,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 5 - 4 SV 07 Elversberg":0.11,"BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 5 - 5 SV 07 Elversberg":0.039},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T07:57:19Z"}},"computed_at":1794046759,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Dortmund will rely on their home strength to squeeze past a struggling visitor. While the hosts have fashioned the superior openings in seven of their last ten matches, Elversberg usually allow their opponents to dictate terms, as they have been second best for quality chances in six of their last ten. Dortmund are a different beast on their own turf, having produced the better opportunities in four of their last five home matches. However, losing their top scorer leaves a void up front. Without the player responsible for finishing and making their chances, they lack their usual clinical edge. Their creative numbers have also dipped during a busy run of four games in a fortnight. Home dominance will be the one thing that decides it.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Borussia Dortmund are without 2 players, and Serhou Guirassy is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0.25,"combined_importance":0.329,"players":[{"player":"Serhou Guirassy","role":"ATT","reason":"Pulled Muscle","goal_share":0.25,"importance":0.329,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4,"tags":["top_scorer","chance_creator","in_form"]},{"player":"Giannis Konstantelias","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":12}]},"strength":0.823,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-3.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1.7}]}],"set_aside":[]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#e1ca12","away":"#c6ab6c"},"venue":{"name":"Signal Iduna Park","city":"Dortmund","capacity":81365},"pulled":[],"published":[]}