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FSV Mainz 05 are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.021,"players":[{"player":"Otto Ruoppi","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.013,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Dominik Kohr","role":"DEF","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.008,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Silas","role":"MID","reason":"Broken Ankle","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Bayern München are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.115,"combined_importance":0.093,"players":[{"player":"Ismael Saibari","role":"MID","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0.077,"importance":0.071,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9,"tags":["chance_creator"]},{"player":"Serge Gnabry","role":"MID","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0.038,"importance":0.018,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Bara Sapoko Ndiaye","role":"MID","reason":"Appendicitis","goal_share":0,"importance":0.004,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.232,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.718,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.282,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":25,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":9,"points":10,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":1,"gap_to_europe":3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":1,"points":18,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":0,"gap_to_safety":9,"gap_to_europe":-5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Urs Fischer has 28 matches in charge at 1. 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FSV Mainz 05 come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.791666666666667,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Bayern München come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.7708333333333335,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":4,"days_rest":3.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.092,"defence":-0.044,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39},"away":{"attack":0.547,"defence":0.183,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Bayern München average 11 points more possession than 1. 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FSV Mainz 05 have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.44,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Bayern München are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.15,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"84 yellow cards in this referee's last 17 games, where 63 would be usual in this league, and 4 reds. — though 17 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":17,"yellows_per_match":4.94,"reds_per_match":0.235,"league_yellows_per_match":3.72,"league_reds_per_match":0.163,"yellow_ratio":1.33,"red_ratio":1.44,"sample":17,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 322 km for FC Bayern München.","evidence":{"travel_km":322},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":8.3,"temperature_c":16,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. 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FSV Mainz 05, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.5,"shots":17.3,"xg_per_shot":0.124,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.336,"finishing_vs_xg":0.44},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":63.8,"shots":22.1,"xg_per_shot":0.144,"corners":7.8,"corners_per_shot":0.355,"finishing_vs_xg":0.15},"possession_gap":-11.3},"strength":0.452,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":2.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-2.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.718,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.282,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#c3151f","away":"#dc1242"},"venue":{"name":"MEWA Arena","city":"Mainz","capacity":34000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}