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FC Köln are without 4 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.25,"combined_importance":0.064,"players":[{"player":"Ellyes Skhiri","role":"MID","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.038,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Thijs Dallinga","role":"ATT","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0.25,"importance":0.026,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Imad Rondić","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Timo Hübers","role":"DEF","reason":"Knee Surgery","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.16,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen are without 5 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.056,"combined_importance":0.064,"players":[{"player":"Moussa Diaby","role":"MID","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0.056,"importance":0.029,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Nathan Tella","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.02,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Loïc Badé","role":"DEF","reason":"Head Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.013,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Martin Terrier","role":"ATT","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.002,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Kennet Eichhorn","role":"MID","reason":"Illness","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.16,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.759,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.241,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":25,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":9,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":9,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":4},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":6,"points":13,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":5,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":0},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Local derby. Cards and both-teams-to-score are the reliable reads; total goals are not, since derbies run cagey about as often as they run open.","evidence":{"derby":true},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":13.5}]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"René Wagner has 23 matches in charge at 1. FC Köln, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"René Wagner","matches_in_charge":23,"tenure_days":218,"ppm":1.52,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.9,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Carles Martínez is 14 games into the job at Bayer 04 Leverkusen, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Carles Martínez","matches_in_charge":14,"tenure_days":80,"ppm":2,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.2,"after_ppm":2.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FC Köln come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.09,"defence":0.006,"effective_matches":11.8,"shrunk":0.4},"away":{"attack":0.139,"defence":-0.019,"effective_matches":12.4,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.9,"shots":15.4,"xg_per_shot":0.1,"corners":5.6,"corners_per_shot":0.363,"finishing_vs_xg":0.12},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":58.3,"shots":19.8,"xg_per_shot":0.119,"corners":8,"corners_per_shot":0.405,"finishing_vs_xg":0.06},"possession_gap":-5.3},"strength":0.213,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. 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FC Köln are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.12,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.06,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"205 yellow cards in this referee's last 48 games, where 178 would be usual in this league, and 13 reds.","evidence":{"matches":48,"yellows_per_match":4.27,"reds_per_match":0.271,"league_yellows_per_match":3.72,"league_reds_per_match":0.163,"yellow_ratio":1.15,"red_ratio":1.66},"strength":0.134,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":3.3}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 15 km for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.","evidence":{"travel_km":15},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":17,"temperature_c":11,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.31823818565470324},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Leverkusen arrive into this local derby after playing four matches in a fortnight, yet their recent form remains superior despite a downward trend in chance creation and defensive vulnerability. They still command most of the possession and turn that ball into attacking openings, which should dictate the rhythm here. Meanwhile, the hosts lack a massive portion of their scoring output, notably missing the two goals from their sidelined forward and the creativity of an absent midfielder. Leverkusen will dominate the play through sheer weight of possession, while the home side must cope without their main defensive organizer after a knee surgery problem. 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