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FSV Mainz 05 come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.1041666666666665,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 5.743033937189423 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.015,"defence":-0.114,"effective_matches":5.7,"shrunk":0.58},"away":{"attack":0.106,"defence":-0.033,"effective_matches":11.9,"shrunk":0.4},"sample":5.743033937189423,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; SV 07 Elversberg work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":49.9,"shots":12.6,"xg_per_shot":0.113,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.425,"finishing_vs_xg":0.67},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52.8,"shots":18.1,"xg_per_shot":0.123,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.301,"finishing_vs_xg":0.6},"possession_gap":-2.9},"strength":0.116,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SV 07 Elversberg have scored 8 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.67,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FSV Mainz 05 have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.6,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":13,"temperature_c":10,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.329761260298823},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6239,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":213738,"event_date":"2026-10-30T19:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1833,"home_team":"SV 07 Elversberg","away_team_id":93,"away_team":"1. FSV Mainz 05","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":44,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4397,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213738,"event_date":"2026-10-30T19:30:00Z","home_team":"SV 07 Elversberg","away_team":"1. FSV Mainz 05","polymarket_event_id":"1203451","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":10,"volume_1wk":10,"volume_1mo":10,"volume_1yr":10,"open_interest":11.694913,"liquidity_clob":9207.6634,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.28,"best_ask":0.3,"change_1d":0.01,"change_1wk":-0.085,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.37,"SV 07 Elversberg 0 - 0 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 0 - 1 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.055,"SV 07 Elversberg 0 - 2 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.05,"SV 07 Elversberg 0 - 3 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 0 - 4 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 0 - 5 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 1 - 0 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.0325,"SV 07 Elversberg 1 - 1 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.11,"SV 07 Elversberg 1 - 2 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.08,"SV 07 Elversberg 1 - 3 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.039,"SV 07 Elversberg 1 - 4 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 1 - 5 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 2 - 0 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 2 - 1 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.06,"SV 07 Elversberg 2 - 2 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.06,"SV 07 Elversberg 2 - 3 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.37,"SV 07 Elversberg 2 - 4 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 2 - 5 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 3 - 0 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.05,"SV 07 Elversberg 3 - 1 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.05,"SV 07 Elversberg 3 - 2 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.05,"SV 07 Elversberg 3 - 3 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.05,"SV 07 Elversberg 3 - 4 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.04,"SV 07 Elversberg 3 - 5 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 4 - 0 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 4 - 1 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 4 - 2 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.05,"SV 07 Elversberg 4 - 3 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 4 - 4 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.055,"SV 07 Elversberg 4 - 5 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 5 - 0 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 5 - 1 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.375,"SV 07 Elversberg 5 - 2 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.045,"SV 07 Elversberg 5 - 3 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.37,"SV 07 Elversberg 5 - 4 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.37,"SV 07 Elversberg 5 - 5 1. FSV Mainz 05":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-25T03:57:12Z"}},"computed_at":1793348477,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Mainz will edge this battle of mid-table neighbors by exploiting a leaky home defense. While the hosts sit 8th, they are bleeding opportunities, facing at least six shots on target in four of their last six matches. This defensive fragility suggests their recent form of losing four of those games is no fluke. Mainz holds 7th and travels with intent, whereas the home side struggles to plug the gaps in the middle of the pitch. Missing creative sparks in the engine room leaves the hosts stagnant, while the visitors possess the composure to dictate tempo away from home. Elversberg cannot stop the bleeding at the back. Movement in the final third will prove the difference.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SV 07 Elversberg are without 4 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.083,"combined_importance":0.073,"players":[{"player":"Lukas Finn Pinckert","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.032,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Lasse Günther","role":"DEF","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0.083,"importance":0.032,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Noah Darvich","role":"MID","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0,"importance":0.011,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Tom Zimmerschied","role":"MID","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6}]},"strength":0.184,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":0},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FSV Mainz 05 are without 4 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.072,"players":[{"player":"Nadiem Amiri","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":9,"tags":["best_performer","chance_creator"]},{"player":"Otto Ruoppi","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.014,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Dominik Kohr","role":"DEF","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.009,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Silas","role":"MID","reason":"Broken Ankle","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.181,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]}],"set_aside":[]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#c6ab6c","away":"#c3151f"},"venue":{"name":"Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde","city":"Spiesen-Elversberg","capacity":10000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}