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A lethal individual threat remains the decisive factor.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RB Leipzig are without 3 players, and Christopher Nkunku is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.2,"combined_importance":0.155,"players":[{"player":"Christopher Nkunku","role":"ATT","reason":"Groin Injury","goal_share":0.2,"importance":0.139,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6,"tags":["top_scorer"]},{"player":"Maxime Estève","role":"DEF","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.016,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Assan Ouédraogo","role":"MID","reason":"Shoulder Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.388,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0}]},{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Schalke 04 are without 8 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":8,"measured":5,"combined_goal_share":0.75,"combined_importance":0.092,"players":[{"player":"Kenan Karaman","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.25,"importance":0.041,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Robin Gosens","role":"DEF","reason":"Head Injury","goal_share":0.25,"importance":0.025,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Maximilian Wöber","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.25,"importance":0.025,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Luca Vozar","role":"MID","reason":"Illness","goal_share":0,"importance":0.001,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Janik Bachmann","role":"MID","reason":"Hip Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Moussa Sylla","role":"ATT","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Ron Schallenberg","role":"MID","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Soufiane El-Faouzi","role":"MID","reason":"Broken Nose","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.231,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-1.5},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":46,"shots":11.9,"xg_per_shot":0.113,"corners":4.5,"corners_per_shot":0.378,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.34},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52.8,"shots":16.9,"xg_per_shot":0.137,"corners":5.6,"corners_per_shot":0.33,"finishing_vs_xg":0.26},"possession_gap":-6.8},"strength":0.273,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.65,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.35,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Martín Demichelis is 12 games into the job at RB Leipzig, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Martín Demichelis","matches_in_charge":12,"tenure_days":72,"ppm":1.75,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#0d5f9e","away":"#d41146"},"venue":{"name":"VELTINS-Arena","city":"Gelsenkirchen","capacity":62271},"pulled":[],"published":[]}