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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8}]},"strength":0.189,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.759,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.241,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":26,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":9,"points":9,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":13,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":4,"gap_to_safety":7,"gap_to_europe":-1},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-3, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manuel Baum has 22 matches in charge at FC Augsburg, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Manuel Baum","matches_in_charge":22,"tenure_days":211,"ppm":1.59,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.6,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Julian Schuster has 31 matches in charge at SC Freiburg, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Julian Schuster","matches_in_charge":31,"tenure_days":211,"ppm":1.9,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Augsburg come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.8958333333333335,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.079,"defence":-0.141,"effective_matches":11.9,"shrunk":0.4},"away":{"attack":0.002,"defence":0.093,"effective_matches":11.9,"shrunk":0.4}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SC Freiburg average 8 points more possession than FC Augsburg, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":46.4,"shots":18.1,"xg_per_shot":0.109,"corners":5.6,"corners_per_shot":0.309,"finishing_vs_xg":0.36},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":54.7,"shots":17.6,"xg_per_shot":0.102,"corners":6,"corners_per_shot":0.34,"finishing_vs_xg":0.7},"possession_gap":-8.3},"strength":0.333,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":1.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1.7}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Augsburg have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.36,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SC Freiburg have scored 8 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.7,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 230 km for SC Freiburg.","evidence":{"travel_km":230},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":6,"temperature_c":13,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.32977399548232433},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"FC Augsburg will punish a weary visiting team here. SC Freiburg may have won three of their last six, but those results hide a clear slide. Across their last four games, they have hit a slump in generating opportunities while conceding far too much at the back, and they travel badly regardless. Heading into their fourth game in a fortnight, exhaustion will catch up with them. FC Augsburg have only lost two of their last six, giving them the platform to control the pitch and press high. Without Yannick Engelhardt in midfield, Freiburg lose crucial goalscoring threat from deep. Tired legs deciding the tempo is what settles it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6403,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":213735,"event_date":"2026-10-31T14:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":90,"home_team":"FC Augsburg","away_team_id":89,"away_team":"SC Freiburg","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":43.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4345,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213735,"event_date":"2026-10-31T14:30:00Z","home_team":"FC Augsburg","away_team":"SC Freiburg","polymarket_event_id":"1209562","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":214.769415,"volume_1wk":313.954665,"volume_1mo":313.954665,"volume_1yr":313.954665,"open_interest":621.732447,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-30T08:57:12Z"}},"computed_at":1793370674,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ba3833","away":"#423b45"},"venue":{"name":"WWK ARENA","city":"Augsburg","capacity":30660},"pulled":[],"published":[]}