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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Sebastian Klaas","role":"ATT","reason":"Groin Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.8},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.586,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.414,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":26,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":18,"points":3,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":14,"gap_to_safety":-3,"gap_to_europe":9},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":8,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":9,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":4},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Alexander Blessin is 13 games into the job at Borussia M'gladbach, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Alexander Blessin","matches_in_charge":13,"tenure_days":163,"ppm":2.38,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":2.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ralf Kettemann has 45 matches in charge at SC Paderborn 07, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Ralf Kettemann","matches_in_charge":45,"tenure_days":368,"ppm":1.69,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.3,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Borussia M'gladbach come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.78125,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.063,"defence":-0.113,"effective_matches":11.9,"shrunk":0.4},"away":{"attack":-0.173,"defence":0.048,"effective_matches":6.3,"shrunk":0.56}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":49.6,"shots":15.7,"xg_per_shot":0.107,"corners":5.4,"corners_per_shot":0.346,"finishing_vs_xg":0.32},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":50.3,"shots":15.3,"xg_per_shot":0.077,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.379,"finishing_vs_xg":0.07},"possession_gap":-0.7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Borussia M'gladbach have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.32,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SC Paderborn 07 are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.07,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 173 km for SC Paderborn 07.","evidence":{"travel_km":173},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":12,"temperature_c":12,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.32977399548232433},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Both of these teams are living on borrowed time, but bottom-placed Borussia M'gladbach will come unstuck here. While both sides have picked up three wins from six, their underlying play is poor. Gladbach routinely allow opponents to dictate terms and have conceded six or more shots on target in four of their previous six matches. Even at home, they have yielded the better chances in three of their last four outings, while Paderborn have suffered a similar fate in seven of their last nine overall. Missing Hugo Bolin's four goals and one assist to a muscle problem leaves Gladbach completely blunt up front. Defensive frailty decides this.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6399,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":213733,"event_date":"2026-10-31T14:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":95,"home_team":"Borussia M'gladbach","away_team_id":1293,"away_team":"SC Paderborn 07","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":47.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4751,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213733,"event_date":"2026-10-31T14:30:00Z","home_team":"Borussia M'gladbach","away_team":"SC Paderborn 07","polymarket_event_id":"1209564","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":27.44359,"volume_1wk":60.564395,"volume_1mo":60.564395,"volume_1yr":60.564395,"open_interest":174.03439600000002,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-30T08:57:12Z"}},"computed_at":1793370675,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#404040","away":"#0e66a8"},"venue":{"name":"Borussia-Park","city":"Monchengladbach","capacity":54057},"pulled":[],"published":[]}