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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6}]},"strength":0.31,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-1.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":1.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.7}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Borussia M'gladbach are without 6 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":6,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.125,"combined_importance":0.024,"players":[{"player":"Isac Lidberg","role":"ATT","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0.125,"importance":0.014,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Jan Leszczyński","role":"DEF","reason":"Meniscus Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.01,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Enzo Leopold","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Fritz Fleck","role":"MID","reason":"Strain Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Jens Castrop","role":"MID","reason":"Shoulder Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.6,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.4,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":6,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":1,"gap_to_europe":4},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":18,"points":0,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":14,"gap_to_safety":-5,"gap_to_europe":10},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Borussia M'gladbach lost the reverse fixture by 3 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":3,"beaten_side":"Borussia M'gladbach","reverse_score":"0-3","reverse_date":1769351400},"strength":0.36,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.7}]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sebastian Hoeneß has 27 matches in charge at VfB Stuttgart, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Sebastian Hoeneß","matches_in_charge":27,"tenure_days":203,"ppm":1.74,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Alexander Blessin is 11 games into the job at Borussia M'gladbach, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Alexander Blessin","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":155,"ppm":2.27,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":2.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Borussia M'gladbach come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.125,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.123,"defence":0.004,"effective_matches":11,"shrunk":0.42},"away":{"attack":-0.083,"defence":-0.123,"effective_matches":11,"shrunk":0.42}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":54.3,"shots":16.7,"xg_per_shot":0.112,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.332,"finishing_vs_xg":0.45},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":54.9,"shots":18.7,"xg_per_shot":0.104,"corners":6,"corners_per_shot":0.321,"finishing_vs_xg":0.8},"possession_gap":-0.6},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"VfB Stuttgart have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.45,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Borussia M'gladbach have scored 10 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.8,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 335 km for Borussia M'gladbach.","evidence":{"travel_km":335},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":8.6,"temperature_c":6,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.30799276962595223},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"VfB Stuttgart should control this match from start to finish despite missing key firepower. Gladbach sit bottom of the table having lost four of their last six matches, largely because opponents hit six or more shots on target against them in five of their last six outings. They are constantly exposed at the back. Stuttgart have won four of their last six games with three clean sheets in six, though losing a major portion of their goals will test them. Missing wide defender Josha Vagnoman, who has provided two goals and two assists this season, takes away real thrust from their flanks. The hosts will still dominate, and their efficiency up front will decide it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5566,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":213730,"event_date":"2026-10-23T18:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":84,"home_team":"VfB Stuttgart","away_team_id":95,"away_team":"Borussia M'gladbach","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":68.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.686,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213730,"event_date":"2026-10-23T18:30:00Z","home_team":"VfB Stuttgart","away_team":"Borussia M'gladbach","polymarket_event_id":"1162931","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":209.460678,"volume_1wk":209.460678,"volume_1mo":209.460678,"volume_1yr":209.460678,"open_interest":261.501343,"liquidity_clob":6229.3707,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.69,"best_ask":0.71,"change_1d":0.01,"change_1wk":0.055,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.38,"VfB Stuttgart 0 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.375,"VfB Stuttgart 0 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.37,"VfB Stuttgart 0 - 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.37,"VfB Stuttgart 0 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.05,"VfB Stuttgart 0 - 4 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.375,"VfB Stuttgart 0 - 5 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.375,"VfB Stuttgart 1 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.0385,"VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.05,"VfB Stuttgart 1 - 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.37,"VfB Stuttgart 1 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.05,"VfB Stuttgart 1 - 4 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.375,"VfB Stuttgart 1 - 5 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.375,"VfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.06,"VfB Stuttgart 2 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.08,"VfB Stuttgart 2 - 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.04,"VfB Stuttgart 2 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.05,"VfB Stuttgart 2 - 4 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.05,"VfB Stuttgart 2 - 5 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.045,"VfB Stuttgart 3 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.055,"VfB Stuttgart 3 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.08,"VfB Stuttgart 3 - 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.038,"VfB Stuttgart 3 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.05,"VfB Stuttgart 3 - 4 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.375,"VfB Stuttgart 3 - 5 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.375,"VfB Stuttgart 4 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.37,"VfB Stuttgart 4 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.37,"VfB Stuttgart 4 - 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.37,"VfB Stuttgart 4 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.37,"VfB Stuttgart 4 - 4 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.035,"VfB Stuttgart 4 - 5 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.375,"VfB Stuttgart 5 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.37,"VfB Stuttgart 5 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.37,"VfB Stuttgart 5 - 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.37,"VfB Stuttgart 5 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.37,"VfB Stuttgart 5 - 4 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.37,"VfB Stuttgart 5 - 5 Borussia Mönchengladbach":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-18T03:57:22Z"}},"computed_at":1792657894,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#e32219","away":"#404040"},"venue":{"name":"MHP Arena","city":"Stuttgart","capacity":60449},"pulled":[],"published":[]}