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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.022,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"Nathan De Cat","role":"MID","reason":"Meniscus Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.013,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8}]},"strength":0.213,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen are without 5 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.125,"combined_importance":0.065,"players":[{"player":"Christian Kofane","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.125,"importance":0.063,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Martin Terrier","role":"ATT","reason":"Hamstring 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projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.845,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.155,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":6,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":1,"gap_to_europe":4},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":4,"points":13,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":1,"gap_to_safety":8,"gap_to_europe":-3},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Christian Ilzer has 25 matches in charge at TSG Hoffenheim, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Christian Ilzer","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":205,"ppm":1.56,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Carles Martínez is 10 games into the job at Bayer 04 Leverkusen, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Carles Martínez","matches_in_charge":10,"tenure_days":66,"ppm":2.5,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.2,"after_ppm":2.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.026,"defence":-0.004,"effective_matches":11.4,"shrunk":0.41},"away":{"attack":0.171,"defence":0.095,"effective_matches":11.5,"shrunk":0.41}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; TSG Hoffenheim work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":54.9,"shots":17.6,"xg_per_shot":0.092,"corners":7.6,"corners_per_shot":0.431,"finishing_vs_xg":0.22},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":58.8,"shots":20.4,"xg_per_shot":0.119,"corners":6.2,"corners_per_shot":0.303,"finishing_vs_xg":0.17},"possession_gap":-3.9},"strength":0.157,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"TSG Hoffenheim are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.22,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.17,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"194 yellow cards in this referee's last 44 games, where 158 would be usual in this league, and 8 reds.","evidence":{"matches":44,"yellows_per_match":4.41,"reds_per_match":0.182,"league_yellows_per_match":3.58,"league_reds_per_match":0.152,"yellow_ratio":1.23,"red_ratio":1.2},"strength":0.208,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":5.2}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 241 km for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.","evidence":{"travel_km":241},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":8.9,"temperature_c":15,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.32958780383107944},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Everything underneath the results points to Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have created the better chances in nine of their last ten games. And away from home, they have made the better chances in five of their last six away games. That is the pattern to trust here, and it favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5979,"created_at":"2026-10-19T02:15:31Z","event":{"id":213729,"event_date":"2026-10-25T14:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":86,"home_team":"TSG Hoffenheim","away_team_id":85,"away_team":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":40.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4093,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213729,"event_date":"2026-10-25T14:30:00Z","home_team":"TSG Hoffenheim","away_team":"Bayer 04 Leverkusen","polymarket_event_id":"1175316","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":357.96110300000004,"volume_1wk":1517.318246,"volume_1mo":1523.2006000000001,"volume_1yr":1523.2006000000001,"open_interest":1654.861709,"liquidity_clob":41357.6699,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.34,"best_ask":0.35,"change_1d":0.005,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.275,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.0355,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.0505,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.05,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.032,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.012,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 5 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.006,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.045,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.1,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.08,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.05,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.018,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 5 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.009,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.0395,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.07,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.08,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.045,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.0165,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 5 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.0085,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.0235,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.045,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.045,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.029,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.011,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 5 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.215,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 4 - 0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.0085,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 4 - 1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.0145,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 4 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.0145,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 4 - 3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.0105,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 4 - 4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.006,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 4 - 5 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.24,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 5 - 0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.0285,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 5 - 1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.0065,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 5 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.007,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 5 - 3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.205,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 5 - 4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.215,"TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 5 - 5 Bayer 04 Leverkusen":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:57:13Z"}},"computed_at":1792828952,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0c5797","away":"#ec1313"},"venue":{"name":"PreZero Arena","city":"Sinsheim","capacity":30150},"pulled":[],"published":[]}