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Min-jae","role":"DEF","reason":"Groin Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.027,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":8}]},"strength":0.69,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.8}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.714,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.286,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":13,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":1,"gap_to_safety":8,"gap_to_europe":-3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":1,"points":14,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":0,"gap_to_safety":9,"gap_to_europe":-4},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SC Freiburg lost the reverse fixture by 4 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":4,"beaten_side":"SC Freiburg","reverse_score":"6-2","reverse_date":1763821800},"strength":0.48,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3.6}]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Julian Schuster has 29 matches in charge at SC Freiburg, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Julian Schuster","matches_in_charge":29,"tenure_days":205,"ppm":1.93,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Vincent Kompany has 28 matches in charge at FC Bayern München, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Vincent Kompany","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":205,"ppm":2.36,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.8,"after_ppm":2.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Bayern München come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.8958333333333335,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.009,"defence":0.13,"effective_matches":11.4,"shrunk":0.41},"away":{"attack":0.51,"defence":0.178,"effective_matches":11.4,"shrunk":0.41}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Bayern München average 10 points more possession than SC Freiburg, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":55.6,"shots":18.5,"xg_per_shot":0.109,"corners":6.5,"corners_per_shot":0.348,"finishing_vs_xg":0.8},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":65.9,"shots":21.8,"xg_per_shot":0.139,"corners":8.4,"corners_per_shot":0.387,"finishing_vs_xg":0.48},"possession_gap":-10.3},"strength":0.411,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":2.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-2.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SC Freiburg have scored 10 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.8,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Bayern München have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.48,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"193 yellow cards in this referee's last 45 games, where 161 would be usual in this league, and 13 reds.","evidence":{"matches":45,"yellows_per_match":4.29,"reds_per_match":0.289,"league_yellows_per_match":3.58,"league_reds_per_match":0.152,"yellow_ratio":1.2,"red_ratio":1.9},"strength":0.178,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":4.4}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 279 km for FC Bayern München.","evidence":{"travel_km":279},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":18.3,"temperature_c":5,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.32958780383107944},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"The results only tell half of this one, and the other half is all FC Bayern München. FC Bayern München have created the better chances in all of their last ten games. On top of that, they have failed to win four of their last ten games in which they made the better chances. Their football is better than their results. Meanwhile, SC Freiburg have created the better chances in seven of their last nine games. If that carries on, FC Bayern München should have the better of it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5910,"created_at":"2026-10-19T02:15:30Z","event":{"id":213727,"event_date":"2026-10-25T16:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":89,"home_team":"SC Freiburg","away_team_id":79,"away_team":"FC Bayern München","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":68.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.688,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213727,"event_date":"2026-10-25T16:30:00Z","home_team":"SC Freiburg","away_team":"FC Bayern München","polymarket_event_id":"1175313","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":150.280791,"volume_1wk":791.318992,"volume_1mo":806.9366380000001,"volume_1yr":806.9366380000001,"open_interest":869.708444,"liquidity_clob":85791.0253,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.13,"best_ask":0.14,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":-0.05,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.33,"SC Freiburg 0 - 0 FC Bayern München":0.02,"SC Freiburg 0 - 1 FC Bayern München":0.05,"SC Freiburg 0 - 2 FC Bayern München":0.065,"SC Freiburg 0 - 3 FC Bayern München":0.0705,"SC Freiburg 0 - 4 FC Bayern München":0.0385,"SC Freiburg 0 - 5 FC Bayern München":0.0175,"SC Freiburg 1 - 0 FC Bayern München":0.0225,"SC Freiburg 1 - 1 FC Bayern München":0.0595,"SC Freiburg 1 - 2 FC Bayern München":0.085,"SC Freiburg 1 - 3 FC Bayern München":0.08,"SC Freiburg 1 - 4 FC Bayern München":0.045,"SC Freiburg 1 - 5 FC Bayern München":0.023,"SC Freiburg 2 - 0 FC Bayern München":0.012,"SC Freiburg 2 - 1 FC Bayern München":0.0385,"SC Freiburg 2 - 2 FC Bayern München":0.057,"SC Freiburg 2 - 3 FC Bayern München":0.052,"SC Freiburg 2 - 4 FC Bayern München":0.0285,"SC Freiburg 2 - 5 FC Bayern München":0.015,"SC Freiburg 3 - 0 FC Bayern München":0.0055,"SC Freiburg 3 - 1 FC Bayern München":0.018,"SC Freiburg 3 - 2 FC Bayern München":0.0245,"SC Freiburg 3 - 3 FC Bayern München":0.024,"SC Freiburg 3 - 4 FC Bayern München":0.0135,"SC Freiburg 3 - 5 FC Bayern München":0.008,"SC Freiburg 4 - 0 FC Bayern München":0.02,"SC Freiburg 4 - 1 FC Bayern München":0.026,"SC Freiburg 4 - 2 FC Bayern München":0.0075,"SC Freiburg 4 - 3 FC Bayern München":0.006,"SC Freiburg 4 - 4 FC Bayern München":0.055,"SC Freiburg 4 - 5 FC Bayern München":0.245,"SC Freiburg 5 - 0 FC Bayern München":0.0205,"SC Freiburg 5 - 1 FC Bayern München":0.0205,"SC Freiburg 5 - 2 FC Bayern München":0.035,"SC Freiburg 5 - 3 FC Bayern München":0.25,"SC Freiburg 5 - 4 FC Bayern München":0.24,"SC Freiburg 5 - 5 FC Bayern München":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-24T05:57:13Z"}},"computed_at":1792828956,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#423b45","away":"#dc1242"},"venue":{"name":"Europa-Park-Stadion","city":"Freiburg","capacity":34700},"pulled":[],"published":[]}