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FC Union Berlin are without 5 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0.2,"combined_importance":0.011,"players":[{"player":"Emmanuel Latte Lath","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.2,"importance":0.011,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Andrej Ilić","role":"ATT","reason":"Appendicitis","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Andrik Markgraf","role":"DEF","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Marvin Friedrich","role":"DEF","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Stanley Nsoki","role":"DEF","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.8},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.627,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.373,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":10,"points":8,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":6,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":2},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":17,"points":5,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":9,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Augsburg lost the reverse fixture by 4 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":4,"beaten_side":"FC Augsburg","reverse_score":"4-0","reverse_date":1778938200},"strength":0.48,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3.6}]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manuel Baum has 20 matches in charge at FC Augsburg, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Manuel Baum","matches_in_charge":20,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":1.55,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.6,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Mauro Lustrinelli is 8 games into the job at 1. FC Union Berlin, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Mauro Lustrinelli","matches_in_charge":8,"tenure_days":65,"ppm":1.38,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.38,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Augsburg come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FC Union Berlin come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.093,"defence":-0.146,"effective_matches":11.5,"shrunk":0.41},"away":{"attack":-0.141,"defence":-0.054,"effective_matches":11.5,"shrunk":0.41}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":42.3,"shots":16.7,"xg_per_shot":0.123,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.344,"finishing_vs_xg":1.28},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":45.7,"shots":13.4,"xg_per_shot":0.108,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.439,"finishing_vs_xg":0.05},"possession_gap":-3.5},"strength":0.138,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Augsburg have scored 15 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":1.28,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FC Union Berlin are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.05,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 498 km for 1. FC Union Berlin.","evidence":{"travel_km":498},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10.5,"temperature_c":9,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3300307280180212},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Augsburg look vulnerable here despite sitting higher in the table than their struggling opponents. Their results hide a defensive reality where they rely heavily on goalkeeping to bail out a leaky structure that surrenders dangerous shots too frequently. Conversely, Union Berlin endure a rough patch where they suffer for every mistake, conceding far more than their defensive work suggests. With vital creative outlets missing for both squads, the game will likely stall in midfield as neither side finds fluidity. Augsburg struggle to contain teams, yet Union Berlin lack the sharpness up front to exploit those gaps while they languish in the bottom three. Manuel Baum failing to beat his visitors before will hold true, as defensive fragility decides this draw.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5788,"created_at":"2026-10-18T02:15:33Z","event":{"id":213725,"event_date":"2026-10-24T13:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":90,"home_team":"FC Augsburg","away_team_id":83,"away_team":"1. 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