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FSV Mainz 05 are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.023,"players":[{"player":"Otto Ruoppi","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.014,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"Dominik Kohr","role":"DEF","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.009,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Silas","role":"MID","reason":"Broken Ankle","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SV Werder Bremen are without 8 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":8,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.009,"players":[{"player":"Jens Stage","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.007,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Justin Njinmah","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.002,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Felix Agu","role":"DEF","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Keke Topp","role":"ATT","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Moussa Ndiaye","role":"DEF","reason":"Groin Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Salim Musah","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Skelly Alvero","role":"MID","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Amos Pieper","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.5}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.614,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.386,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":10,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":4,"gap_to_safety":5,"gap_to_europe":0},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":8,"points":9,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":5,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":1},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Urs Fischer has 25 matches in charge at 1. FSV Mainz 05, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Urs Fischer","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":2.04,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Daniel Thioune has 22 matches in charge at SV Werder Bremen, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Daniel Thioune","matches_in_charge":22,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":1.45,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FSV Mainz 05 come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SV Werder Bremen come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.106,"defence":0.016,"effective_matches":11.5,"shrunk":0.41},"away":{"attack":-0.084,"defence":-0.007,"effective_matches":11.5,"shrunk":0.41}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.3,"shots":19.4,"xg_per_shot":0.131,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.257,"finishing_vs_xg":0.46},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":50.8,"shots":15.4,"xg_per_shot":0.107,"corners":4.2,"corners_per_shot":0.271,"finishing_vs_xg":0.35},"possession_gap":1.5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FSV Mainz 05 have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.46,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SV Werder Bremen have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.35,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 346 km for SV Werder Bremen.","evidence":{"travel_km":346},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":11.8,"temperature_c":12,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3300307280180212},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"This one swings on who creates the opening, and Mainz hold every card. They have engineered the better chances in five of their last seven outings, dominating the creative battle almost every week. Bremen travel badly and bleed chances away from home, falling behind on quality in three of their last four trips. The hosts must manage without a vital midfield creator who has contributed two assists, yet their defensive foundation remains solid with three clean sheets in six. Bremen arrive with a depleted spine missing key muscle at the back and upfront, leaving them heavily reliant on their top scorer who has netted in five straight fixtures. This is where it is decided. Mainz make the better chances, and Bremen cannot stop them.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5789,"created_at":"2026-10-18T02:15:33Z","event":{"id":213723,"event_date":"2026-10-24T13:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":93,"home_team":"1. FSV Mainz 05","away_team_id":88,"away_team":"SV Werder Bremen","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":54.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5446,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213723,"event_date":"2026-10-24T13:30:00Z","home_team":"1. FSV Mainz 05","away_team":"SV Werder Bremen","polymarket_event_id":"1168869","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":102.511642,"volume_1wk":102.511642,"volume_1mo":116.797357,"volume_1yr":116.797357,"open_interest":107.567357,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T01:27:12Z"}},"computed_at":1792727197,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#c3151f","away":"#209255"},"venue":{"name":"MEWA Arena","city":"Mainz","capacity":34000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}