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FC Köln are without 6 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":6,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.286,"combined_importance":0.082,"players":[{"player":"Ellyes Skhiri","role":"MID","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.045,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Thijs Dallinga","role":"ATT","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0.286,"importance":0.031,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Joel Schmied","role":"DEF","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.006,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Imad Rondić","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Rav van den Berg","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Timo Hübers","role":"DEF","reason":"Knee Surgery","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.205,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Schalke 04 are without 5 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":5,"combined_goal_share":0.5,"combined_importance":0.187,"players":[{"player":"Moussa Sylla","role":"ATT","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.067,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Dejan Ljubičić","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.043,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Kenan Karaman","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.25,"importance":0.042,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Maximilian Wöber","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.25,"importance":0.026,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Ron Schallenberg","role":"MID","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.009,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.468,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.682,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.318,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":12,"points":7,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":7,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":15,"points":5,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":9,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"René Wagner has 20 matches in charge at 1. FC Köln, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"René Wagner","matches_in_charge":20,"tenure_days":203,"ppm":1.5,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.9,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Miron Muslić has 43 matches in charge at FC Schalke 04, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Miron Muslić","matches_in_charge":43,"tenure_days":361,"ppm":1.74,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.4,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FC Köln come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.791666666666667,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Schalke 04 come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 4.931210783522212 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.07,"defence":-0.035,"effective_matches":10.9,"shrunk":0.42},"away":{"attack":-0.185,"defence":0.048,"effective_matches":4.9,"shrunk":0.62},"sample":4.931210783522212,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":50.5,"shots":16,"xg_per_shot":0.093,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.361,"finishing_vs_xg":0.93},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47,"shots":12.8,"xg_per_shot":0.115,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.418,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.05},"possession_gap":3.5},"strength":0.14,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. 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FC Köln have scored 11 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.93,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Schalke 04 are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.05,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 70 km for FC Schalke 04.","evidence":{"travel_km":70},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":9.8,"temperature_c":14,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3300307280180212},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Schalke travel well and will snatch this, because underlying numbers tell a different story than recent form. The visitors create better chances even when they cede possession, and while they scored only six goals from eight matches, the volume of opportunities suggests those strikes are coming. Köln are getting opened up at the back and surrender six or more efforts on target across four of their last six outings, which spells trouble given how many defensive regulars they miss. Both attacks are depleted by major absences up front and through the middle, yet Schalke remain comfortable without the ball and travel well. Ultimately, defensive fragility hands the visitors the decisive openings.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5791,"created_at":"2026-10-18T02:15:33Z","event":{"id":213722,"event_date":"2026-10-24T13:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":94,"home_team":"1. FC Köln","away_team_id":1290,"away_team":"FC Schalke 04","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":45.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4572,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213722,"event_date":"2026-10-24T13:30:00Z","home_team":"1. 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