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areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":49.3,"shots":15,"xg_per_shot":0.097,"corners":4.1,"corners_per_shot":0.273,"finishing_vs_xg":0.54},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":51.9,"shots":15.7,"xg_per_shot":0.081,"corners":6.4,"corners_per_shot":0.407,"finishing_vs_xg":0.06},"possession_gap":-2.6},"strength":0.104,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SV Werder Bremen have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.54,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SC Paderborn 07 are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.06,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"78 yellow cards in this referee's last 15 games, where 54 would be usual in this league, and 4 reds. — though 15 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":15,"yellows_per_match":5.2,"reds_per_match":0.267,"league_yellows_per_match":3.59,"league_reds_per_match":0.167,"yellow_ratio":1.45,"red_ratio":1.59,"sample":15,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":20.9,"temperature_c":19,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.30799276962595223},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5120,"created_at":"2026-10-11T02:15:31Z","event":{"id":213721,"event_date":"2026-10-17T13:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":88,"home_team":"SV Werder Bremen","away_team_id":1293,"away_team":"SC Paderborn 07","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":52.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5269,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213721,"event_date":"2026-10-17T13:30:00Z","home_team":"SV Werder Bremen","away_team":"SC Paderborn 07","polymarket_event_id":"1128873","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":100,"volume_1wk":100,"volume_1mo":100,"volume_1yr":100,"open_interest":181.57750299999998,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.075,"SV Werder Bremen 0 - 0 SC Paderborn 07":0.0435,"SV Werder Bremen 0 - 1 SC Paderborn 07":0.0465,"SV Werder Bremen 0 - 2 SC Paderborn 07":0.031,"SV Werder Bremen 0 - 3 SC Paderborn 07":0.01,"SV Werder Bremen 0 - 4 SC Paderborn 07":0.2045,"SV Werder Bremen 0 - 5 SC Paderborn 07":0.215,"SV Werder Bremen 1 - 0 SC Paderborn 07":0.08,"SV Werder Bremen 1 - 1 SC Paderborn 07":0.1,"SV Werder Bremen 1 - 2 SC Paderborn 07":0.06,"SV Werder Bremen 1 - 3 SC Paderborn 07":0.025,"SV Werder Bremen 1 - 4 SC Paderborn 07":0.014,"SV Werder Bremen 1 - 5 SC Paderborn 07":0.19,"SV Werder Bremen 2 - 0 SC Paderborn 07":0.08,"SV Werder Bremen 2 - 1 SC Paderborn 07":0.1,"SV Werder Bremen 2 - 2 SC Paderborn 07":0.06,"SV Werder Bremen 2 - 3 SC Paderborn 07":0.026,"SV Werder Bremen 2 - 4 SC Paderborn 07":0.014,"SV Werder Bremen 2 - 5 SC Paderborn 07":0.045,"SV Werder Bremen 3 - 0 SC Paderborn 07":0.0515,"SV Werder Bremen 3 - 1 SC Paderborn 07":0.07,"SV Werder Bremen 3 - 2 SC Paderborn 07":0.0415,"SV Werder Bremen 3 - 3 SC Paderborn 07":0.018,"SV Werder Bremen 3 - 4 SC Paderborn 07":0.012,"SV Werder Bremen 3 - 5 SC Paderborn 07":0.21,"SV Werder Bremen 4 - 0 SC Paderborn 07":0.019,"SV Werder Bremen 4 - 1 SC Paderborn 07":0.024,"SV Werder Bremen 4 - 2 SC Paderborn 07":0.015,"SV Werder Bremen 4 - 3 SC Paderborn 07":0.0145,"SV Werder Bremen 4 - 4 SC Paderborn 07":0.0345,"SV Werder Bremen 4 - 5 SC Paderborn 07":0.215,"SV Werder Bremen 5 - 0 SC Paderborn 07":0.016,"SV Werder Bremen 5 - 1 SC Paderborn 07":0.018,"SV Werder Bremen 5 - 2 SC Paderborn 07":0.015,"SV Werder Bremen 5 - 3 SC Paderborn 07":0.215,"SV Werder Bremen 5 - 4 SC Paderborn 07":0.21,"SV Werder Bremen 5 - 5 SC Paderborn 07":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-15T03:57:18Z"}},"computed_at":1792037735,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#209255","away":"#0e66a8"},"venue":{"name":"Weserstadion","city":"Bremen","capacity":42100},"pulled":[],"published":[]}