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FSV Mainz 05 are without 5 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.077,"combined_importance":0.029,"players":[{"player":"Otto Ruoppi","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.014,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Dominik Kohr","role":"DEF","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.01,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Eric Martel","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0.077,"importance":0.005,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Silas","role":"MID","reason":"Broken Ankle","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Silvan Widmer","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.65,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.35,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":28,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":5,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":1,"gap_to_europe":3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":8,"points":7,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":6,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":1},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Miron Muslić has 18 matches in charge at FC Schalke 04, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Miron Muslić","matches_in_charge":18,"tenure_days":354,"ppm":1.61,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.6,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Urs Fischer has 24 matches in charge at 1. 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FSV Mainz 05 come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 4.161371170358633 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.109,"defence":0.033,"effective_matches":4.2,"shrunk":0.66},"away":{"attack":0.108,"defence":-0.026,"effective_matches":11.1,"shrunk":0.42},"sample":4.161371170358633,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; FC Schalke 04 work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":47.3,"shots":13.3,"xg_per_shot":0.123,"corners":5.4,"corners_per_shot":0.408,"finishing_vs_xg":0.04},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52,"shots":21,"xg_per_shot":0.129,"corners":5.1,"corners_per_shot":0.242,"finishing_vs_xg":0.46},"possession_gap":-4.7},"strength":0.189,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. 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FSV Mainz 05 have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.46,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"21 yellow cards in this referee's last 5 games, where 18 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 5 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":5,"yellows_per_match":4.2,"reds_per_match":0.2,"league_yellows_per_match":3.59,"league_reds_per_match":0.167,"yellow_ratio":1.17,"red_ratio":1.2,"sample":5,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":8.3,"temperature_c":12,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. 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