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FC Köln are without 6 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":6,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.429,"combined_importance":0.14,"players":[{"player":"Ellyes Skhiri","role":"MID","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.046,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Ragnar Ache","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.143,"importance":0.042,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Thijs Dallinga","role":"ATT","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0.286,"importance":0.031,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Alessio Castro-Montes","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.021,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Rav van den Berg","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Timo Hübers","role":"DEF","reason":"Knee Surgery","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.35,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.641,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.359,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":28,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":14,"points":5,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":1,"gap_to_europe":3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":10,"points":7,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":6,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":1},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 3-4, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Adolf Hütter is 7 games into the job at Eintracht Frankfurt, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Adolf Hütter","matches_in_charge":7,"tenure_days":57,"ppm":1.57,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":1.57,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"René Wagner has 16 matches in charge at 1. FC Köln, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"René Wagner","matches_in_charge":16,"tenure_days":195,"ppm":1.44,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.9,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Eintracht Frankfurt come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.083333333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FC Köln come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.208333333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.017,"defence":-0.118,"effective_matches":11,"shrunk":0.42},"away":{"attack":-0.04,"defence":-0.056,"effective_matches":10.5,"shrunk":0.43}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":53.2,"shots":15.9,"xg_per_shot":0.101,"corners":6.8,"corners_per_shot":0.43,"finishing_vs_xg":1.31},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":51.2,"shots":17.2,"xg_per_shot":0.095,"corners":6.1,"corners_per_shot":0.357,"finishing_vs_xg":1.46},"possession_gap":2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":1.31,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FC Köln have scored 18 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":1.46,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"74 yellow cards in this referee's last 21 games, where 75 would be usual in this league, and 3 reds. — though 21 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":21,"yellows_per_match":3.52,"reds_per_match":0.143,"league_yellows_per_match":3.59,"league_reds_per_match":0.167,"yellow_ratio":0.98,"red_ratio":0.85,"sample":21,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 158 km for 1. FC Köln.","evidence":{"travel_km":158},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":4.7,"temperature_c":14,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.30799276962595223},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Eintracht Frankfurt are in trouble, and not only on results. Eintracht Frankfurt have faced six or more efforts on target in four of their last six games. They are getting opened up. And they have scored 20 in their last seven from chances that would usually bring about 13. That finishing is running hot. On top of that, they have conceded 23 in their last seven from chances that would usually cost about 15. They have been punished for very little. Until Eintracht Frankfurt sort that out, they are there to be got at.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4953,"created_at":"2026-10-10T02:15:29Z","event":{"id":213716,"event_date":"2026-10-16T18:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":87,"home_team":"Eintracht Frankfurt","away_team_id":94,"away_team":"1. FC Köln","league_id":5,"league_name":"Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":48.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4835,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213716,"event_date":"2026-10-16T18:30:00Z","home_team":"Eintracht Frankfurt","away_team":"1. FC Köln","polymarket_event_id":"1122760","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":16.115941,"liquidity_clob":15479.5913,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.5,"best_ask":0.52,"change_1d":-0.005,"change_1wk":0.015,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.405,"Eintracht Frankfurt 0 - 0 1. FC Köln":0.395,"Eintracht Frankfurt 0 - 1 1. FC Köln":0.38,"Eintracht Frankfurt 0 - 2 1. FC Köln":0.39,"Eintracht Frankfurt 0 - 3 1. FC Köln":0.045,"Eintracht Frankfurt 0 - 4 1. FC Köln":0.395,"Eintracht Frankfurt 0 - 5 1. FC Köln":0.395,"Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 0 1. FC Köln":0.05,"Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 1. FC Köln":0.08,"Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 2 1. FC Köln":0.05,"Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 3 1. FC Köln":0.045,"Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 4 1. FC Köln":0.395,"Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 5 1. FC Köln":0.395,"Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 0 1. FC Köln":0.05,"Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 1 1. FC Köln":0.085,"Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 2 1. FC Köln":0.06,"Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 3 1. FC Köln":0.05,"Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 4 1. FC Köln":0.045,"Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 5 1. FC Köln":0.04,"Eintracht Frankfurt 3 - 0 1. FC Köln":0.375,"Eintracht Frankfurt 3 - 1 1. FC Köln":0.05,"Eintracht Frankfurt 3 - 2 1. FC Köln":0.4,"Eintracht Frankfurt 3 - 3 1. FC Köln":0.045,"Eintracht Frankfurt 3 - 4 1. FC Köln":0.395,"Eintracht Frankfurt 3 - 5 1. FC Köln":0.39,"Eintracht Frankfurt 4 - 0 1. FC Köln":0.345,"Eintracht Frankfurt 4 - 1 1. FC Köln":0.325,"Eintracht Frankfurt 4 - 2 1. FC Köln":0.38,"Eintracht Frankfurt 4 - 3 1. FC Köln":0.37,"Eintracht Frankfurt 4 - 4 1. FC Köln":0.035,"Eintracht Frankfurt 4 - 5 1. FC Köln":0.395,"Eintracht Frankfurt 5 - 0 1. FC Köln":0.38,"Eintracht Frankfurt 5 - 1 1. FC Köln":0.38,"Eintracht Frankfurt 5 - 2 1. FC Köln":0.39,"Eintracht Frankfurt 5 - 3 1. FC Köln":0.365,"Eintracht Frankfurt 5 - 4 1. FC Köln":0.32,"Eintracht Frankfurt 5 - 5 1. FC Köln":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-11T03:57:20Z"}},"computed_at":1792037803,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#be0f0f","away":"#ed242c"},"venue":{"name":"Deutsche Bank Park","city":"Frankfurt","capacity":58000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}