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Pérez","matches_in_charge":21,"tenure_days":341,"ppm":1.33,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"José Bordalás has 32 matches in charge at Getafe, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"José Bordalás","matches_in_charge":32,"tenure_days":218,"ppm":1.25,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Villarreal come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.895833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.13,"defence":0.105,"effective_matches":15.2,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":-0.314,"defence":0.111,"effective_matches":15.1,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Villarreal average 15 points more possession than Getafe, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":56.2,"shots":16.3,"xg_per_shot":0.109,"corners":6.1,"corners_per_shot":0.374,"finishing_vs_xg":0.06},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":40.8,"shots":12.8,"xg_per_shot":0.075,"corners":5.2,"corners_per_shot":0.405,"finishing_vs_xg":0.13},"possession_gap":15.4},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":3.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-3.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Villarreal are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.06,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Getafe are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.13,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 311 km for Getafe.","evidence":{"travel_km":311},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":0.8,"temperature_c":19,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3028212871875403},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Villarreal are in trouble, and not only on results. Villarreal are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. And they have conceded 16 in their last ten from chances that would usually cost about 11. They have been punished for very little. As for the other side, Getafe have conceded 19 in their last ten from chances that would usually cost about 12. They have been punished for very little. Until Villarreal sort that out, they are there to be got at.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7234,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:25Z","event":{"id":213639,"event_date":"2026-11-08T17:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":41,"home_team":"Villarreal","away_team_id":50,"away_team":"Getafe","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":65.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6564,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213639,"event_date":"2026-11-08T17:30:00Z","home_team":"Villarreal","away_team":"Getafe","polymarket_event_id":"1289926","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":30391.5715,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.68,"best_ask":0.69,"change_1d":0.01,"change_1wk":0.025,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.16,"Villarreal CF 0 - 0 Getafe CF":0.055,"Villarreal CF 0 - 1 Getafe CF":0.0475,"Villarreal CF 0 - 2 Getafe CF":0.0095,"Villarreal CF 0 - 3 Getafe CF":0.0105,"Villarreal CF 0 - 4 Getafe CF":0.013,"Villarreal CF 0 - 5 Getafe CF":0.05,"Villarreal CF 1 - 0 Getafe CF":0.12,"Villarreal CF 1 - 1 Getafe CF":0.095,"Villarreal CF 1 - 2 Getafe CF":0.0385,"Villarreal CF 1 - 3 Getafe CF":0.009,"Villarreal CF 1 - 4 Getafe CF":0.0215,"Villarreal CF 1 - 5 Getafe CF":0.05,"Villarreal CF 2 - 0 Getafe CF":0.12,"Villarreal CF 2 - 1 Getafe CF":0.095,"Villarreal CF 2 - 2 Getafe CF":0.0385,"Villarreal CF 2 - 3 Getafe CF":0.013,"Villarreal CF 2 - 4 Getafe CF":0.022,"Villarreal CF 2 - 5 Getafe CF":0.0445,"Villarreal CF 3 - 0 Getafe CF":0.085,"Villarreal CF 3 - 1 Getafe CF":0.065,"Villarreal CF 3 - 2 Getafe CF":0.017,"Villarreal CF 3 - 3 Getafe CF":0.0075,"Villarreal CF 3 - 4 Getafe CF":0.0385,"Villarreal CF 3 - 5 Getafe CF":0.16,"Villarreal CF 4 - 0 Getafe CF":0.027,"Villarreal CF 4 - 1 Getafe CF":0.018,"Villarreal CF 4 - 2 Getafe CF":0.0165,"Villarreal CF 4 - 3 Getafe CF":0.0095,"Villarreal CF 4 - 4 Getafe CF":0.0335,"Villarreal CF 4 - 5 Getafe CF":0.178,"Villarreal CF 5 - 0 Getafe CF":0.02,"Villarreal CF 5 - 1 Getafe CF":0.018,"Villarreal CF 5 - 2 Getafe CF":0.0125,"Villarreal CF 5 - 3 Getafe CF":0.165,"Villarreal CF 5 - 4 Getafe CF":0.1405,"Villarreal CF 5 - 5 Getafe CF":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T05:57:05Z"}},"computed_at":1794046773,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0b5282","away":"#1559a2"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio de la Ceramica","city":"Villarreal","capacity":23500},"pulled":[],"published":[]}