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The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Javier Aguirre","matches_in_charge":5,"tenure_days":88,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":0.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1}]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"José Mourinho has 16 matches in charge at Real Madrid, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"José Mourinho","matches_in_charge":16,"tenure_days":84,"ppm":2.62,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.3,"after_ppm":2.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Valencia come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.104166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Real Madrid come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.09375,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.126,"defence":0.024,"effective_matches":15.1,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":0.348,"defence":0.232,"effective_matches":15.1,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":44.2,"shots":10.4,"xg_per_shot":0.098,"corners":3.7,"corners_per_shot":0.354,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.35},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":51.3,"shots":17,"xg_per_shot":0.151,"corners":6.3,"corners_per_shot":0.373,"finishing_vs_xg":0.02},"possession_gap":-7.2},"strength":0.286,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. 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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3028212871875403},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6990,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:22Z","event":{"id":213638,"event_date":"2026-11-07T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":47,"home_team":"Valencia","away_team_id":57,"away_team":"Real Madrid","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":74.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7428,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213638,"event_date":"2026-11-07T20:00:00Z","home_team":"Valencia","away_team":"Real Madrid","polymarket_event_id":"1285195","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":204457.9439,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.08,"best_ask":0.09,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":-0.045,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.18,"Valencia CF 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF":0.031,"Valencia CF 0 - 1 Real Madrid CF":0.085,"Valencia CF 0 - 2 Real Madrid CF":0.115,"Valencia CF 0 - 3 Real Madrid CF":0.1,"Valencia CF 0 - 4 Real Madrid CF":0.059,"Valencia CF 0 - 5 Real Madrid CF":0.0315,"Valencia CF 1 - 0 Real Madrid CF":0.0215,"Valencia CF 1 - 1 Real Madrid CF":0.065,"Valencia CF 1 - 2 Real Madrid CF":0.095,"Valencia CF 1 - 3 Real Madrid CF":0.085,"Valencia CF 1 - 4 Real Madrid CF":0.047,"Valencia CF 1 - 5 Real Madrid CF":0.0245,"Valencia CF 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF":0.008,"Valencia CF 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF":0.0285,"Valencia CF 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF":0.036,"Valencia CF 2 - 3 Real Madrid CF":0.035,"Valencia CF 2 - 4 Real Madrid CF":0.016,"Valencia CF 2 - 5 Real Madrid CF":0.011,"Valencia CF 3 - 0 Real Madrid CF":0.0035,"Valencia CF 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF":0.01,"Valencia CF 3 - 2 Real Madrid CF":0.007,"Valencia CF 3 - 3 Real Madrid CF":0.0065,"Valencia CF 3 - 4 Real Madrid CF":0.008,"Valencia CF 3 - 5 Real Madrid CF":0.0055,"Valencia CF 4 - 0 Real Madrid CF":0.025,"Valencia CF 4 - 1 Real Madrid CF":0.0165,"Valencia CF 4 - 2 Real Madrid CF":0.0035,"Valencia CF 4 - 3 Real Madrid CF":0.003,"Valencia CF 4 - 4 Real Madrid CF":0.0175,"Valencia CF 4 - 5 Real Madrid CF":0.121,"Valencia CF 5 - 0 Real Madrid CF":0.07,"Valencia CF 5 - 1 Real Madrid CF":0.09,"Valencia CF 5 - 2 Real Madrid CF":0.033,"Valencia CF 5 - 3 Real Madrid CF":0.204,"Valencia CF 5 - 4 Real Madrid CF":0.191,"Valencia CF 5 - 5 Real Madrid CF":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-11-06T14:57:06Z"}},"computed_at":1793981321,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Real Madrid will dictate the rhythm of this game while Valencia struggles to bridge the gap in quality. The visitors consistently generate superior opportunities, having outperformed opponents in eight of their last ten outings and five of their previous six away fixtures. While Valencia is trending upward with better play recently, they sit nineteenth and have lost a major portion of their scoring threat. Real Madrid carries relentless momentum from six straight wins, fueled by their star forward who has found the net in five consecutive matches. The visitors maintain control through superior creation, while Valencia remains too toothless to capitalize on home support. Ultimately, clinical finishing determines the outcome.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Valencia are without 5 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0.286,"combined_importance":0.086,"players":[{"player":"David Otorbi","role":"ATT","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0.143,"importance":0.061,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Luis Rioja","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.143,"importance":0.025,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Diego López","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Kayne van Oevelen","role":"GK","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":2},{"player":"Sergi Canós","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.215,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-1.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":1},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Valencia lost the reverse fixture by 4 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":4,"beaten_side":"Valencia","reverse_score":"4-0","reverse_date":1762027200},"strength":0.48,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3.6}]},{"id":"manager.home.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Javier Aguirre is 5 games into the job at Valencia. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Javier Aguirre","matches_in_charge":5,"tenure_days":88,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":0.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1}]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":44.2,"shots":10.4,"xg_per_shot":0.098,"corners":3.7,"corners_per_shot":0.354,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.35},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":51.3,"shots":17,"xg_per_shot":0.151,"corners":6.3,"corners_per_shot":0.373,"finishing_vs_xg":0.02},"possession_gap":-7.2},"strength":0.286,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]}],"set_aside":[]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#ed3724","away":"#0d589c"},"venue":{"name":"Mestalla","city":"Valencia","capacity":49430},"pulled":[],"published":[]}