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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.727,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.273,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":26,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":6,"points":17,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":13,"gap_to_safety":7,"gap_to_europe":0},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":11,"points":12,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":18,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Luis Garcia has 29 matches in charge at Sevilla, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Luis Garcia","matches_in_charge":29,"tenure_days":216,"ppm":1.55,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.1,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Quique Sánchez Flores has 24 matches in charge at Deportivo Alavés, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Quique Sánchez Flores","matches_in_charge":24,"tenure_days":216,"ppm":1.33,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sevilla come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.291666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":5.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Alavés come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.0833333333333335,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.074,"defence":-0.022,"effective_matches":15.2,"shrunk":0.34},"away":{"attack":-0.042,"defence":0.001,"effective_matches":15.1,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":44.7,"shots":13.8,"xg_per_shot":0.084,"corners":4.1,"corners_per_shot":0.296,"finishing_vs_xg":0.43},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":41.8,"shots":12.7,"xg_per_shot":0.1,"corners":4.2,"corners_per_shot":0.327,"finishing_vs_xg":0.06},"possession_gap":2.9},"strength":0.117,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sevilla have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.43,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Alavés are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.06,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 669 km for Deportivo Alavés.","evidence":{"travel_km":669},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":9.7,"temperature_c":17,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.30282573838670784},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Alavés should dominate a Sevilla side that has lost its creative spark. The visitors play better football than their results suggest. They create the better openings but failed to win three of the last ten times they did so. Now they face a Sevilla team stripped of their goal threat. Without Isaac Romero, the hosts lose their top scorer and the man who makes their chances. The loss of Youssouf Fofana means the player who provides the most assists is gone too. Sevilla will struggle to build play or find an opening. The result depends on whether Alavés can finally turn their superior play into goals.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6913,"created_at":"2026-10-31T02:15:20Z","event":{"id":213637,"event_date":"2026-11-06T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":52,"home_team":"Sevilla","away_team_id":45,"away_team":"Deportivo Alavés","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":48.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4811,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213637,"event_date":"2026-11-06T20:00:00Z","home_team":"Sevilla","away_team":"Deportivo Alavés","polymarket_event_id":"1279809","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.095,"Sevilla FC 0 - 0 Deportivo Alavés":0.095,"Sevilla FC 0 - 1 Deportivo Alavés":0.08,"Sevilla FC 0 - 2 Deportivo Alavés":0.037,"Sevilla FC 0 - 3 Deportivo Alavés":0.011,"Sevilla FC 0 - 4 Deportivo Alavés":0.0105,"Sevilla FC 0 - 5 Deportivo Alavés":0.11,"Sevilla FC 1 - 0 Deportivo Alavés":0.135,"Sevilla FC 1 - 1 Deportivo Alavés":0.135,"Sevilla FC 1 - 2 Deportivo Alavés":0.06,"Sevilla FC 1 - 3 Deportivo Alavés":0.0175,"Sevilla FC 1 - 4 Deportivo Alavés":0.0115,"Sevilla FC 1 - 5 Deportivo Alavés":0.115,"Sevilla FC 2 - 0 Deportivo Alavés":0.095,"Sevilla FC 2 - 1 Deportivo Alavés":0.095,"Sevilla FC 2 - 2 Deportivo Alavés":0.048,"Sevilla FC 2 - 3 Deportivo Alavés":0.0145,"Sevilla FC 2 - 4 Deportivo Alavés":0.005,"Sevilla FC 2 - 5 Deportivo Alavés":0.055,"Sevilla FC 3 - 0 Deportivo Alavés":0.045,"Sevilla FC 3 - 1 Deportivo Alavés":0.045,"Sevilla FC 3 - 2 Deportivo Alavés":0.024,"Sevilla FC 3 - 3 Deportivo Alavés":0.0065,"Sevilla FC 3 - 4 Deportivo Alavés":0.0395,"Sevilla FC 3 - 5 Deportivo Alavés":0.11,"Sevilla FC 4 - 0 Deportivo Alavés":0.0145,"Sevilla FC 4 - 1 Deportivo Alavés":0.0145,"Sevilla FC 4 - 2 Deportivo Alavés":0.0145,"Sevilla FC 4 - 3 Deportivo Alavés":0.0105,"Sevilla FC 4 - 4 Deportivo Alavés":0.0345,"Sevilla FC 4 - 5 Deportivo Alavés":0.1175,"Sevilla FC 5 - 0 Deportivo Alavés":0.03,"Sevilla FC 5 - 1 Deportivo Alavés":0.03,"Sevilla FC 5 - 2 Deportivo Alavés":0.03,"Sevilla FC 5 - 3 Deportivo Alavés":0.11,"Sevilla FC 5 - 4 Deportivo Alavés":0.128,"Sevilla FC 5 - 5 Deportivo Alavés":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-11-05T08:57:08Z"}},"computed_at":1793887556,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ca1021","away":"#0d379a"},"venue":{"name":"Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán","city":"Seville","capacity":42714},"pulled":[],"published":[]}