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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":26,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":19,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":9,"gap_to_europe":-2},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":12,"points":12,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":18,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 3-3, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pellegrino Matarazzo has 33 matches in charge at Real Sociedad, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Pellegrino 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does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.114,"defence":-0.128,"effective_matches":15.1,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":0,"defence":-0.046,"effective_matches":14.3,"shrunk":0.36}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.8,"shots":14.1,"xg_per_shot":0.109,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.402,"finishing_vs_xg":0.63},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":53.1,"shots":16.5,"xg_per_shot":0.095,"corners":6.1,"corners_per_shot":0.368,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.24},"possession_gap":-0.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Real Sociedad have scored 8 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.63,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rayo Vallecano are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.24,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 353 km for Rayo Vallecano.","evidence":{"travel_km":353},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":5.9,"temperature_c":21,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3028212871875403},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"The results here are not telling the whole story. Real Sociedad have scored 23 in their last nine from chances that would usually bring about 16. That finishing is running hot. Meanwhile, Rayo Vallecano are trending up: in their last four games they have made clearly better chances than in the games before. On top of that, they have failed to win three of their last ten games in which they made the better chances. Their football is better than their results. Whoever makes the better chances on the day takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7276,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":213636,"event_date":"2026-11-08T15:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":48,"home_team":"Real Sociedad","away_team_id":40,"away_team":"Rayo Vallecano","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":55.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5569,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213636,"event_date":"2026-11-08T15:15:00Z","home_team":"Real Sociedad","away_team":"Rayo Vallecano","polymarket_event_id":"1289442","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":21119.9265,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.56,"best_ask":0.57,"change_1d":-0.01,"change_1wk":0.015,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.1,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.0475,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.0465,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0 - 2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.0265,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0 - 3 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.013,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0 - 4 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.0035,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0 - 5 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.069,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.085,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.105,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1 - 2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.055,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1 - 3 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.021,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1 - 4 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.008,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1 - 5 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.035,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.08,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.1,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2 - 2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.065,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2 - 3 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.022,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2 - 4 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.008,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2 - 5 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.0375,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 3 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.0555,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 3 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.065,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 3 - 2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.0395,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 3 - 3 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.0145,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 3 - 4 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.005,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 3 - 5 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.12,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 4 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.0155,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 4 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.03,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 4 - 2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.0175,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 4 - 3 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.007,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 4 - 4 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.003,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 4 - 5 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.135,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 5 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.011,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 5 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.0075,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 5 - 2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.0095,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 5 - 3 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.0045,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 5 - 4 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.1185,"Real Sociedad de Fútbol 5 - 5 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid":0.039},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T09:57:07Z"}},"computed_at":1794046770,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0d57a6","away":"#d2a94c"},"venue":{"name":"Reale Arena","city":"San Sebastian","capacity":40000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}