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Arrasate","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":533,"ppm":1.55,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Edin Terzić is 12 games into the job at Athletic Club, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Edin Terzić","matches_in_charge":12,"tenure_days":84,"ppm":1.75,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Osasuna come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.895833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Athletic Club come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.895833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":5.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.063,"defence":-0.083,"effective_matches":15.2,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":0.019,"defence":0.085,"effective_matches":14.4,"shrunk":0.36}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Athletic Club average 8 points more possession than Osasuna, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":47.3,"shots":12,"xg_per_shot":0.13,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.313,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.14},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":55.3,"shots":15.7,"xg_per_shot":0.113,"corners":6.2,"corners_per_shot":0.392,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.03},"possession_gap":-8},"strength":0.321,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":1.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1.7}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Osasuna are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.14,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Athletic Club are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.03,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":19.8,"temperature_c":9,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3028212871875403},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Athletic Club will dictate the flow of this match by turning their frequent possession into high-quality opportunities. While the hosts have struggled recently, their uptick in creativity over the last four outings suggests they are a different side at home. Osasuna must adapt without key playmakers in the middle, yet Athletic also face significant absences that deplete their own central options. Athletic remain the more consistent force, having won four of their last six while maintaining a solid defensive record. With Álex Berenguer scoring in three straight games, he provides the spark to break down any resistance. The result hinges on whether Athletic can contain a revitalized Osasuna attack despite their own lineup disruptions.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7017,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:22Z","event":{"id":213635,"event_date":"2026-11-07T17:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":58,"home_team":"Osasuna","away_team_id":51,"away_team":"Athletic Club","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":45.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4551,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213635,"event_date":"2026-11-07T17:30:00Z","home_team":"Osasuna","away_team":"Athletic Club","polymarket_event_id":"1284501","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":40549.6188,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.25,"best_ask":0.26,"change_1d":-0.01,"change_1wk":-0.035,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.095,"CA Osasuna 0 - 0 Athletic Club":0.085,"CA Osasuna 0 - 1 Athletic Club":0.125,"CA Osasuna 0 - 2 Athletic Club":0.085,"CA Osasuna 0 - 3 Athletic Club":0.0405,"CA Osasuna 0 - 4 Athletic Club":0.0115,"CA Osasuna 0 - 5 Athletic Club":0.006,"CA Osasuna 1 - 0 Athletic Club":0.085,"CA Osasuna 1 - 1 Athletic Club":0.13,"CA Osasuna 1 - 2 Athletic Club":0.095,"CA Osasuna 1 - 3 Athletic Club":0.0455,"CA Osasuna 1 - 4 Athletic Club":0.0125,"CA Osasuna 1 - 5 Athletic Club":0.0065,"CA Osasuna 2 - 0 Athletic Club":0.04,"CA Osasuna 2 - 1 Athletic Club":0.065,"CA Osasuna 2 - 2 Athletic Club":0.0495,"CA Osasuna 2 - 3 Athletic Club":0.0235,"CA Osasuna 2 - 4 Athletic Club":0.009,"CA Osasuna 2 - 5 Athletic Club":0.0095,"CA Osasuna 3 - 0 Athletic Club":0.014,"CA Osasuna 3 - 1 Athletic Club":0.0185,"CA Osasuna 3 - 2 Athletic Club":0.013,"CA Osasuna 3 - 3 Athletic Club":0.0085,"CA Osasuna 3 - 4 Athletic Club":0.0035,"CA Osasuna 3 - 5 Athletic Club":0.105,"CA Osasuna 4 - 0 Athletic Club":0.0045,"CA Osasuna 4 - 1 Athletic Club":0.007,"CA Osasuna 4 - 2 Athletic Club":0.006,"CA Osasuna 4 - 3 Athletic Club":0.003,"CA Osasuna 4 - 4 Athletic Club":0.0345,"CA Osasuna 4 - 5 Athletic Club":0.125,"CA Osasuna 5 - 0 Athletic Club":0.0335,"CA Osasuna 5 - 1 Athletic Club":0.0215,"CA Osasuna 5 - 2 Athletic Club":0.0285,"CA Osasuna 5 - 3 Athletic Club":0.095,"CA Osasuna 5 - 4 Athletic Club":0.0985,"CA Osasuna 5 - 5 Athletic Club":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-11-06T11:57:06Z"}},"computed_at":1793981318,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d91a21","away":"#cf1127"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio El Sadar","city":"Pamplona","capacity":23576},"pulled":[],"published":[]}