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Anselmi","matches_in_charge":20,"tenure_days":376,"ppm":1.55,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manuel Pellegrini has 34 matches in charge at Real Betis, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Manuel Pellegrini","matches_in_charge":34,"tenure_days":219,"ppm":1.91,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Elche come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.8125,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Real Betis come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.7083333333333335,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":4,"days_rest":3.7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.06,"defence":-0.056,"effective_matches":14.5,"shrunk":0.36},"away":{"attack":0.089,"defence":-0.018,"effective_matches":15.1,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":54.2,"shots":13.3,"xg_per_shot":0.115,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.377,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.1},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":51.3,"shots":17,"xg_per_shot":0.096,"corners":5.2,"corners_per_shot":0.304,"finishing_vs_xg":0.21},"possession_gap":2.9},"strength":0.117,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Elche are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.1,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Real Betis are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.21,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 479 km for Real Betis.","evidence":{"travel_km":479},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3028212871875403},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Everything underneath the results points to Elche. Elche are happy without the ball: in two of the four games they had less of it, they still made the better chances. And they are trending up: in their last four games they have made clearly better chances than in the games before. That is the pattern to trust here, and it favours Elche.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7362,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":213632,"event_date":"2026-11-08T13:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":55,"home_team":"Elche","away_team_id":56,"away_team":"Real Betis","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":46.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4653,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213632,"event_date":"2026-11-08T13:00:00Z","home_team":"Elche","away_team":"Real Betis","polymarket_event_id":"1288609","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":35543.2019,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.27,"best_ask":0.28,"change_1d":-0.01,"change_1wk":-0.02,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.13,"Elche CF 0 - 0 Real Betis Balompié":0.0515,"Elche CF 0 - 1 Real Betis Balompié":0.085,"Elche CF 0 - 2 Real Betis Balompié":0.07,"Elche CF 0 - 3 Real Betis Balompié":0.0425,"Elche CF 0 - 4 Real Betis Balompié":0.0175,"Elche CF 0 - 5 Real Betis Balompié":0.0085,"Elche CF 1 - 0 Real Betis Balompié":0.06,"Elche CF 1 - 1 Real Betis Balompié":0.115,"Elche CF 1 - 2 Real Betis Balompié":0.1,"Elche CF 1 - 3 Real Betis Balompié":0.0515,"Elche CF 1 - 4 Real Betis Balompié":0.0155,"Elche CF 1 - 5 Real Betis Balompié":0.013,"Elche CF 2 - 0 Real Betis Balompié":0.0375,"Elche CF 2 - 1 Real Betis Balompié":0.07,"Elche CF 2 - 2 Real Betis Balompié":0.065,"Elche CF 2 - 3 Real Betis Balompié":0.0365,"Elche CF 2 - 4 Real Betis Balompié":0.0135,"Elche CF 2 - 5 Real Betis Balompié":0.007,"Elche CF 3 - 0 Real Betis Balompié":0.0165,"Elche CF 3 - 1 Real Betis Balompié":0.0275,"Elche CF 3 - 2 Real Betis Balompié":0.025,"Elche CF 3 - 3 Real Betis Balompié":0.016,"Elche CF 3 - 4 Real Betis Balompié":0.0065,"Elche CF 3 - 5 Real Betis Balompié":0.01,"Elche CF 4 - 0 Real Betis Balompié":0.0055,"Elche CF 4 - 1 Real Betis Balompié":0.0065,"Elche CF 4 - 2 Real Betis Balompié":0.0105,"Elche CF 4 - 3 Real Betis Balompié":0.0065,"Elche CF 4 - 4 Real Betis Balompié":0.0035,"Elche CF 4 - 5 Real Betis Balompié":0.172,"Elche CF 5 - 0 Real Betis Balompié":0.034,"Elche CF 5 - 1 Real Betis Balompié":0.0105,"Elche CF 5 - 2 Real Betis Balompié":0.0085,"Elche CF 5 - 3 Real Betis Balompié":0.175,"Elche CF 5 - 4 Real Betis Balompié":0.13,"Elche CF 5 - 5 Real Betis Balompié":0.0325},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T09:57:07Z"}},"computed_at":1794046765,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d9b659","away":"#0b8338"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Martínez Valero","city":"Elche","capacity":31388},"pulled":[],"published":[]}