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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":10,"points":12,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":5},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":18,"points":8,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":19,"gap_to_safety":-1,"gap_to_europe":9},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Iñigo Pérez has 19 matches in charge at Villarreal, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Iñigo Pérez","matches_in_charge":19,"tenure_days":332,"ppm":1.47,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manolo Gonzalez has 26 matches in charge at Espanyol, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Manolo Gonzalez","matches_in_charge":26,"tenure_days":210,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.3,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Villarreal come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":4,"days_rest":3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Espanyol come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.0833333333333335,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.169,"defence":0.093,"effective_matches":15,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":-0.137,"defence":-0.008,"effective_matches":14.9,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Villarreal average 12 points more possession than Espanyol, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Villarreal work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":60,"shots":16.9,"xg_per_shot":0.109,"corners":6.5,"corners_per_shot":0.384,"finishing_vs_xg":0.15},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.8,"shots":12.8,"xg_per_shot":0.096,"corners":3.3,"corners_per_shot":0.26,"finishing_vs_xg":0.02},"possession_gap":12.2},"strength":0.487,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":2.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.6}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Villarreal are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.15,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Espanyol are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.02,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"193 yellow cards in this referee's last 43 games, where 194 would be usual in this league, and 10 reds.","evidence":{"matches":43,"yellows_per_match":4.49,"reds_per_match":0.233,"league_yellows_per_match":4.52,"league_reds_per_match":0.299,"yellow_ratio":0.99,"red_ratio":0.78},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 242 km for Espanyol.","evidence":{"travel_km":242},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":5.2,"temperature_c":20,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.30233605775050887},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Villarreal should take control and earn a comfortable home victory. Espanyol are stuck in the bottom three because opponents breach them far too easily, allowing six or more attempts on target in five of their last six outings. Going forward, they hit the target only 22 times from 88 strikes in those six games, wasting possession from distance. Villarreal have claimed victory in three of their last six, though a red card means top scorer Pape Gueye misses out, stripping away three goals' worth of threat. Yet Espanyol lose Vanja Drkušić at the back to physical discomfort, making their shaky defense even more vulnerable. Sharpness in the box decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6231,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":213629,"event_date":"2026-10-30T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":41,"home_team":"Villarreal","away_team_id":53,"away_team":"Espanyol","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":66.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6688,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793348479,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0b5282","away":"#ed232a"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio de la Ceramica","city":"Villarreal","capacity":23500},"pulled":[],"published":[]}