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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.016,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Diego Murillo","role":"DEF","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Julen Lobete","role":"ATT","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5}]},"strength":0.345,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.7},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.5}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.755,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.245,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":4,"points":20,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":7,"gap_to_safety":11,"gap_to_europe":-3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":20,"points":5,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":22,"gap_to_safety":-4,"gap_to_europe":12},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manuel Pellegrini has 32 matches in charge at Real Betis, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Manuel Pellegrini","matches_in_charge":32,"tenure_days":211,"ppm":1.94,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settled","section":"§1.3","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Juan Funes has been at Málaga CF for 2 years and 106 matches: a settled regime with a large, stable sample behind it.","evidence":{"manager":"Juan Funes","matches_in_charge":106,"tenure_days":806,"ppm":1.42,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Málaga CF come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.8958333333333335,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.1,"defence":-0.017,"effective_matches":14.8,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":-0.202,"defence":-0.134,"effective_matches":7.7,"shrunk":0.51}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Málaga CF work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.3,"shots":17.1,"xg_per_shot":0.097,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.278,"finishing_vs_xg":0.17},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52.8,"shots":12.1,"xg_per_shot":0.087,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.434,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.05},"possession_gap":-0.6},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Real Betis are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.17,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Málaga CF are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.05,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 155 km for Málaga CF.","evidence":{"travel_km":155},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":13,"temperature_c":24,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.30231392731494855},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Real Betis should control the flow against a Málaga side rooted to the bottom of the table. The visitors often struggle to generate quality, having been out-created in seven of their last ten matches. While they have carved out better openings over their last four games, they remain vulnerable on their travels. Betis miss the spark of Cucho Hernández, who provided three goals and two assists before his calf injury. This loss slows the home attack, while Málaga lose the midfield energy of Pablo Martínez. Although Betis won three of their last six, their thin defense faces a real test. The result hinges on whether Adrián Niño can score for a fourth time after netting in three straight matches.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6312,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:17Z","event":{"id":213627,"event_date":"2026-10-31T17:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":56,"home_team":"Real Betis","away_team_id":1259,"away_team":"Málaga CF","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":71.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7139,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213627,"event_date":"2026-10-31T17:30:00Z","home_team":"Real Betis","away_team":"Málaga CF","polymarket_event_id":"1242114","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-30T18:57:05Z"}},"computed_at":1793420362,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0b8338","away":"#0c4a91"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio de la Cartuja","city":"Seville","capacity":70000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}