{"id":213626,"league_id":3,"league":"La Liga","kickoff":1793459700,"home":"Rayo Vallecano","away":"Celta Vigo","home_id":40,"away_id":49,"venue_id":40,"rank":2,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.652,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.46,1.06],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo is one to leave alone. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","note":"Celta Vigo are without 5 players, and Miguel Román is a real loss."}],"lambda_home":1.459412724995945,"lambda_away":1.055012989750699,"corner_rate":8.88,"card_rate":0.301,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.714,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":970,"name":"Emil Audero","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.543},{"id":2771,"name":"Adrià Pedrosa","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.593},{"id":905,"name":"Florian Lejeune","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.793},{"id":3123,"name":"Mujaid Sadick","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.48},{"id":916,"name":"Iván Balliu","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.5},{"id":910,"name":"Unai López","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.795},{"id":908,"name":"Óscar Valentín","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.518},{"id":912,"name":"Álvaro García","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.815},{"id":3863,"name":"Isi Palazón","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.258},{"id":913,"name":"Jorge de Frutos","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.6},{"id":918,"name":"Sergio Camello","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.637},{"id":4019,"name":"Pedro Díaz","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.487},{"id":2785,"name":"Giorgi Tsitaishvili","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.43},{"id":920,"name":"Dani Cárdenas","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.4},{"id":915,"name":"Alemão","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.339},{"id":4311,"name":"Randy Nteka","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.312},{"id":209479,"name":"Gnangoro Bouaré","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.308},{"id":2654,"name":"Marash Kumbulla","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.299},{"id":4764,"name":"Pelayo Fernández","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.293},{"id":921,"name":"Jozhua Vertrouwd","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.259},{"id":4713,"name":"Rayane Belaid","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.252},{"id":909,"name":"Fran Pérez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.223},{"id":37023,"name":"Ivan Alonso Martin","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.192}],"confidence":0.714},"away":{"formation":"3-4-3","players":[{"id":1251,"name":"Ionuț Radu","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.887},{"id":1254,"name":"Marcos Alonso","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.754},{"id":3330,"name":"Yoel Lago","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.736},{"id":10103,"name":"Sebastián Cáceres","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.495},{"id":1273,"name":"Hugo Álvarez","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.631},{"id":1255,"name":"Javier Rueda","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.625},{"id":1262,"name":"Ilaix Moriba","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.683},{"id":2765,"name":"Aleix Febas","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.495},{"id":1264,"name":"Williot Swedberg","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.427},{"id":1266,"name":"Ferrán Jutglà","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.663},{"id":5659,"name":"Hugo González","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.362},{"id":1252,"name":"Javi Rodríguez","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.617},{"id":1258,"name":"Sergio Carreira","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.614},{"id":8615,"name":"Hugo Burcio","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.45},{"id":779,"name":"Javi Galán","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.425},{"id":1259,"name":"Iago Aspas","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.368},{"id":3514,"name":"Couhaib Driouech","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.292},{"id":8822,"name":"Andrés Antañón","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.226},{"id":1260,"name":"Borja Iglesias","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.195},{"id":1803,"name":"Altay Bayındır","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":4453,"name":"Abdoulaye Faye","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":1267,"name":"Iván Villar","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02}],"confidence":0.777},"unavailable":[{"id":904,"name":"Andrei Rațiu","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":903,"name":"Augusto Batalla","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Broken Leg"},{"id":917,"name":"Luiz Felipe","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"},{"id":3864,"name":"Pathé Ismaël Ciss","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"yellow_card_accumulation_suspension"},{"id":2760,"name":"Álvaro Núñez","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Thigh Injury"},{"id":1253,"name":"Carl Starfelt","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Hamstring Injury"},{"id":1263,"name":"Jones El-Abdellaoui","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knee Injury"},{"id":1257,"name":"Miguel Román","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knee Surgery"},{"id":1265,"name":"Pablo Durán","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Thigh Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":970,"name":"Emil Audero","side":"home"},{"id":2771,"name":"Adrià Pedrosa","side":"home"},{"id":905,"name":"Florian Lejeune","side":"home"},{"id":3123,"name":"Mujaid Sadick","side":"home"},{"id":916,"name":"Iván Balliu","side":"home"},{"id":910,"name":"Unai López","side":"home"},{"id":908,"name":"Óscar Valentín","side":"home"},{"id":912,"name":"Álvaro García","side":"home"},{"id":3863,"name":"Isi Palazón","side":"home"},{"id":913,"name":"Jorge de Frutos","side":"home"},{"id":918,"name":"Sergio Camello","side":"home"},{"id":4019,"name":"Pedro Díaz","side":"home"},{"id":2785,"name":"Giorgi Tsitaishvili","side":"home"},{"id":920,"name":"Dani Cárdenas","side":"home"},{"id":915,"name":"Alemão","side":"home"},{"id":4311,"name":"Randy Nteka","side":"home"},{"id":209479,"name":"Gnangoro Bouaré","side":"home"},{"id":2654,"name":"Marash Kumbulla","side":"home"},{"id":4764,"name":"Pelayo Fernández","side":"home"},{"id":921,"name":"Jozhua Vertrouwd","side":"home"},{"id":4713,"name":"Rayane Belaid","side":"home"},{"id":909,"name":"Fran Pérez","side":"home"},{"id":37023,"name":"Ivan Alonso Martin","side":"home"},{"id":904,"name":"Andrei Rațiu","side":"home"},{"id":917,"name":"Luiz Felipe","side":"home"},{"id":65503,"name":"Raúl de Tomás","side":"home"},{"id":903,"name":"Augusto Batalla","side":"home"},{"id":919,"name":"Adrián Molina","side":"home"},{"id":3864,"name":"Pathé Ismaël Ciss","side":"home"},{"id":1251,"name":"Ionuț Radu","side":"away"},{"id":1254,"name":"Marcos Alonso","side":"away"},{"id":3330,"name":"Yoel Lago","side":"away"},{"id":10103,"name":"Sebastián Cáceres","side":"away"},{"id":1273,"name":"Hugo Álvarez","side":"away"},{"id":1255,"name":"Javier Rueda","side":"away"},{"id":1262,"name":"Ilaix Moriba","side":"away"},{"id":2765,"name":"Aleix Febas","side":"away"},{"id":1264,"name":"Williot Swedberg","side":"away"},{"id":1266,"name":"Ferrán Jutglà","side":"away"},{"id":5659,"name":"Hugo González","side":"away"},{"id":1252,"name":"Javi Rodríguez","side":"away"},{"id":1258,"name":"Sergio Carreira","side":"away"},{"id":8615,"name":"Hugo Burcio","side":"away"},{"id":779,"name":"Javi Galán","side":"away"},{"id":1259,"name":"Iago Aspas","side":"away"},{"id":3514,"name":"Couhaib Driouech","side":"away"},{"id":8822,"name":"Andrés Antañón","side":"away"},{"id":1260,"name":"Borja Iglesias","side":"away"},{"id":1803,"name":"Altay Bayındır","side":"away"},{"id":4453,"name":"Abdoulaye Faye","side":"away"},{"id":1267,"name":"Iván Villar","side":"away"},{"id":1253,"name":"Carl Starfelt","side":"away"},{"id":2760,"name":"Álvaro Núñez","side":"away"},{"id":1265,"name":"Pablo Durán","side":"away"},{"id":1263,"name":"Jones El-Abdellaoui","side":"away"},{"id":1257,"name":"Miguel Román","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":903,"name":"Augusto Batalla","side":"home","team":"Rayo Vallecano","club":null,"role":"GK","position":"GK","status":"out","reason":"Broken Leg","expected_return":"2027-01-10","season":{"apps":2,"starts":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.008,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":904,"name":"Andrei Rațiu","side":"home","team":"Rayo Vallecano","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"RB","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":6,"starts":6,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":3},"standout":{"opponent":"Real Racing Club","kickoff":1788625800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.06,"country":{"team":"Romania","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":1,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":917,"name":"Luiz Felipe","side":"home","team":"Rayo Vallecano","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":3864,"name":"Pathé Ismaël Ciss","side":"home","team":"Rayo Vallecano","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"yellow_card_accumulation_suspension","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":9,"starts":9,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":9},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.036,"country":{"team":"Senegal","apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1782936000},"lately":null},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}},{"id":918,"name":"Sergio Camello","side":"home","team":"Rayo Vallecano","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":6,"goals":7,"assists":1,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Real Racing Club","kickoff":1788625800,"goals":2,"assists":1,"score":"3-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer"],"importance":0.495,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":180,"country":0}},{"id":913,"name":"Jorge de Frutos","side":"home","team":"Rayo Vallecano","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":6,"goals":1,"assists":2,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":1,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Recreativo de Huelva","kickoff":1793131200,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.124,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":173,"country":0}},{"id":1257,"name":"Miguel Román","side":"away","team":"Celta Vigo","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Knee Surgery","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":8,"starts":7,"goals":1,"assists":2,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":1,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Real Racing Club","kickoff":1789835400,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"5-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.12,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1265,"name":"Pablo Durán","side":"away","team":"Celta Vigo","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":9,"starts":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Real Racing Club","kickoff":1789835400,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"5-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.077,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":81,"country":0}},{"id":1253,"name":"Carl Starfelt","side":"away","team":"Celta Vigo","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Hamstring Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":4,"starts":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":3},"standout":{"opponent":"Getafe","kickoff":1788800400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.031,"country":{"team":"Sweden","apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1782428400},"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":2760,"name":"Álvaro Núñez","side":"away","team":"Celta Vigo","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"RB","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-30","season":{"apps":6,"starts":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.03,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1263,"name":"Jones El-Abdellaoui","side":"away","team":"Celta Vigo","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"out","reason":"Knee Injury","expected_return":"2027-01-20","season":{"apps":3,"starts":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":3,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.002,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1266,"name":"Ferrán Jutglà","side":"away","team":"Celta Vigo","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":13,"starts":9,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":13,"tracked_starts":9},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Málaga CF","kickoff":1789300800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.081,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":200,"country":0}},{"id":1264,"name":"Williot Swedberg","side":"away","team":"Celta Vigo","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":12,"starts":4,"goals":0,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":12,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Juventus","kickoff":1792090800,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"1-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.033,"country":{"team":null,"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":3,"minutes":104,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":40,"away":49},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":1,"d":2,"l":4},"below":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":1,"d":2,"l":1},"below":{"w":1,"d":4,"l":1}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":817,"name":"Benat San Jose","vs":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":0,"last":{"kickoff":1747587600,"score":"2-1","result":"W"}}},"away":{"id":396,"name":"Claudio Giráldez","vs":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1768757400,"score":"3-0","result":"W"}}}},"best_xi":[{"id":918,"name":"Sergio Camello","team_id":40,"position":"F","matches":9,"goals":7,"assists":1}],"players":{"904":{"caps":41,"goals":2,"country":"Romania","signed":null},"1253":{"caps":35,"goals":0,"country":"Sweden","signed":null},"1266":{"caps":3,"goals":0,"country":"Catalunya","signed":null},"2760":{"caps":1,"goals":0,"country":"Basque Country","signed":{"from":"Elche","fee":1000000,"at":1769990400}},"3864":{"caps":41,"goals":0,"country":"Senegal","signed":null}}},"notable":[{"id":747,"name":"Raphinha","goals":13,"rank":1},{"id":594,"name":"Kylian Mbappé","goals":11,"rank":2},{"id":2669,"name":"Ante Budimir","goals":8,"rank":3},{"id":745,"name":"Lamine Yamal","goals":8,"rank":4},{"id":2332,"name":"Yassir Zabiri","goals":8,"rank":5},{"id":918,"name":"Sergio Camello","goals":7,"rank":6},{"id":30392,"name":"Fernando Niño","goals":6,"rank":7},{"id":1284,"name":"Roberto Fernández","goals":6,"rank":8},{"id":769,"name":"Alex Baena","goals":5,"rank":9},{"id":2353,"name":"Lucas Boyé","goals":5,"rank":10},{"id":1932,"name":"Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang","goals":5,"rank":11},{"id":2123,"name":"Roger Brugué","goals":5,"rank":12},{"id":28408,"name":"Adrián Niño","goals":4,"rank":13},{"id":3663,"name":"Fermín López","goals":4,"rank":14},{"id":1577,"name":"Abdessamad Ezzalzouli","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 11","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":46,"home_wins":19,"draws":15,"away_wins":12,"home_goals":53,"away_goals":46,"avg_total_goals":2.152173913043478,"home_win_rate":0.41304347826086957,"away_win_rate":0.2608695652173913,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Rayo Vallecano","date":"2026-01-18T17:30:00+00:00","home":"Celta Vigo","score":"3-0","event_id":882,"away_score":0,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":40,"home_team_id":49},{"away":"Celta Vigo","date":"2025-09-21T12:00:00+00:00","home":"Rayo Vallecano","score":"1-1","event_id":736,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":49,"home_team_id":40},{"away":"Rayo Vallecano","date":"2025-05-18T17:00:00+00:00","home":"Celta Vigo","score":"1-2","event_id":305715,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":40,"home_team_id":49},{"away":"Celta Vigo","date":"2025-01-10T20:00:00+00:00","home":"Rayo Vallecano","score":"2-1","event_id":305536,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":49,"home_team_id":40},{"away":"Rayo Vallecano","date":"2024-03-31T12:00:00+00:00","home":"Celta Vigo","score":"0-0","event_id":311113,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":40,"home_team_id":49},{"away":"Celta Vigo","date":"2023-12-11T20:00:00+00:00","home":"Rayo Vallecano","score":"0-0","event_id":310977,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":49,"home_team_id":40},{"away":"Rayo Vallecano","date":"2023-03-11T17:30:00+00:00","home":"Celta Vigo","score":"3-0","event_id":316074,"away_score":0,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":40,"home_team_id":49},{"away":"Celta Vigo","date":"2022-11-10T18:00:00+00:00","home":"Rayo Vallecano","score":"0-0","event_id":315968,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":49,"home_team_id":40},{"away":"Rayo Vallecano","date":"2022-02-05T17:30:00+00:00","home":"Celta Vigo","score":"2-0","event_id":319818,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":40,"home_team_id":49},{"away":"Celta Vigo","date":"2021-11-01T17:30:00+00:00","home":"Rayo Vallecano","score":"0-0","event_id":319711,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":49,"home_team_id":40}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":40,"position":16,"played":9,"points":9,"goal_diff":-8,"team_name":"Rayo Vallecano","won":2,"drawn":3,"lost":4,"goals_for":12,"goals_against":20,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":49,"position":9,"played":10,"points":12,"goal_diff":3,"team_name":"Celta Vigo","won":2,"drawn":6,"lost":2,"goals_for":10,"goals_against":7,"group":null},"size":20},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1,"record":"1-3-2","goals_for":1,"goals_against":1.83,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"winless 4","sequence":"LWDDLD","venue_ppg":1.5},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.83,"record":"3-2-1","goals_for":1.67,"goals_against":0.67,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"none","sequence":"WDLWWD","venue_ppg":2}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rayo Vallecano are without 4 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.083,"combined_importance":0.104,"players":[{"player":"Andrei Rațiu","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.083,"importance":0.06,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Pathé Ismaël Ciss","role":"MID","reason":"yellow_card_accumulation_suspension","goal_share":0,"importance":0.036,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Augusto Batalla","role":"GK","reason":"Broken Leg","goal_share":0,"importance":0.008,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Luiz Felipe","role":"DEF","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.26,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.9},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Celta Vigo are without 5 players, and Miguel Román is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":5,"combined_goal_share":0.4,"combined_importance":0.26,"players":[{"player":"Miguel Román","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Surgery","goal_share":0.1,"importance":0.12,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Pablo Durán","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.2,"importance":0.077,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Carl Starfelt","role":"DEF","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0.1,"importance":0.031,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Álvaro Núñez","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.03,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Jones El-Abdellaoui","role":"ATT","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.002,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5}]},"strength":0.65,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.5}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.714,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.286,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":16,"points":9,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":18,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":8},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":9,"points":12,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rayo Vallecano lost the reverse fixture by 3 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":3,"beaten_side":"Rayo Vallecano","reverse_score":"3-0","reverse_date":1768757400},"strength":0.36,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":2.7}]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Benat San Jose has 22 matches in charge at Rayo Vallecano, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Benat San Jose","matches_in_charge":22,"tenure_days":299,"ppm":1.36,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Claudio Giráldez has 29 matches in charge at Celta Vigo, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Claudio Giráldez","matches_in_charge":29,"tenure_days":210,"ppm":1.28,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rayo Vallecano come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.8020833333333335,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.012,"defence":-0.06,"effective_matches":13.9,"shrunk":0.36},"away":{"attack":-0.128,"defence":0.101,"effective_matches":14.8,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.8,"shots":16.8,"xg_per_shot":0.097,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.347,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.29},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.6,"shots":11.7,"xg_per_shot":0.081,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.321,"finishing_vs_xg":0.14},"possession_gap":3.3},"strength":0.13,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rayo Vallecano have scored 3 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.29,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Celta Vigo are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.14,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 471 km for Celta Vigo.","evidence":{"travel_km":471},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":13.1,"temperature_c":19,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.30231392731494855},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Rayo Vallecano should turn their superior creative play into a home victory against a depleted Celta Vigo. The hosts lost two of their last six, but their underlying performance is climbing. They are creating much better openings now than they did before. Rayo often finish below their potential, failing to win three of ten games where they produced the better chances. Celta kept three clean sheets in six, but they now arrive for their fourth game in a fortnight without their midfield engine. Losing Miguel Román robs them of control. Other absences strip away a big chunk of their goals. Rayo just need better accuracy after finding the target 29 times from 127 shots. Home dominance settles it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6343,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:17Z","event":{"id":213626,"event_date":"2026-10-31T15:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":40,"home_team":"Rayo Vallecano","away_team_id":49,"away_team":"Celta Vigo","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":39.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3923,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213626,"event_date":"2026-10-31T15:15:00Z","home_team":"Rayo Vallecano","away_team":"Celta Vigo","polymarket_event_id":"1241407","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-30T16:57:06Z"}},"computed_at":1793416762,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d2a94c","away":"#e5254e"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio de Vallecas","city":"Madrid","capacity":14708},"pulled":[],"published":[]}