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plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.05,"combined_importance":0.145,"players":[{"player":"Cristian Romero","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.05,"importance":0.074,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Koke","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.039,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Johnny Cardoso","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.032,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.362,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.777,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.223,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":14,"points":10,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":17,"gap_to_safety":1,"gap_to_europe":7},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":2,"points":25,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":2,"gap_to_safety":16,"gap_to_europe":-8},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 3-1, too close to carry a revenge 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them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.75,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.071,"defence":-0.149,"effective_matches":14.5,"shrunk":0.36},"away":{"attack":0.154,"defence":0.131,"effective_matches":14.8,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Atlético Madrid average 14 points more possession than Levante UD, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":43.9,"shots":11.3,"xg_per_shot":0.128,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.338,"finishing_vs_xg":0.14},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":58.3,"shots":16.2,"xg_per_shot":0.099,"corners":5.4,"corners_per_shot":0.335,"finishing_vs_xg":0.24},"possession_gap":-14.3},"strength":0.573,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":3},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Levante UD are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.14,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Atlético Madrid are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.24,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 296 km for Atlético Madrid.","evidence":{"travel_km":296},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":12.9,"temperature_c":22,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.30231392731494855},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Atlético Madrid will pull through here despite their recent defensive wobble. The visitors took victory in five of their last six, but those outcomes mask a real drop off. Indeed, their recent four outings were their worst for generating and surrendering opportunities. Still, they kept command of possession in six of their last eight matches and consistently turned that dominance into danger. Levante UD, having dropped three of their last six, cannot capitalize. Missing leading marksman Roger Brugué with a muscle problem strips away five goals and leaves a major portion of their attack missing. Possession control decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6437,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":213625,"event_date":"2026-10-31T13:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":46,"home_team":"Levante UD","away_team_id":54,"away_team":"Atlético Madrid","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":61.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6108,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213625,"event_date":"2026-10-31T13:00:00Z","home_team":"Levante UD","away_team":"Atlético Madrid","polymarket_event_id":"1240747","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-30T13:27:05Z"}},"computed_at":1793370670,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#a80e41","away":"#282a6d"},"venue":{"name":"Ciudad de Valencia","city":"Valencia","capacity":26354},"pulled":[],"published":[]}