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Sevilla have made three changes from the side expected, with Arouna Sangante, Giorgi Kochorashvili and Robbie Ure out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":3,"out":["Zaid Romero","Orel Mangala","Sebastian Salazar Trujillo"],"in":["Sebastián Boselli","Jean Ives Valou","Andrés García"]},"away":{"n":3,"out":["Arouna Sangante","Giorgi Kochorashvili","Robbie Ure"],"in":["Andrés Castrin","Félix Correia","Lucas Stassin"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":18,"points":9,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":21,"gap_to_safety":-1,"gap_to_europe":8},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":6,"points":17,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":13,"gap_to_safety":7,"gap_to_europe":0},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"José Bordalás has 30 matches in charge at Getafe, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"José Bordalás","matches_in_charge":30,"tenure_days":211,"ppm":1.23,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Luis Garcia has 28 matches in charge at Sevilla, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Luis Garcia","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":211,"ppm":1.61,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.1,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.356,"defence":0.105,"effective_matches":14.6,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":-0.068,"defence":0.003,"effective_matches":14.6,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Getafe work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":41.5,"shots":12.8,"xg_per_shot":0.071,"corners":5.4,"corners_per_shot":0.422,"finishing_vs_xg":0.01},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":44.3,"shots":13.9,"xg_per_shot":0.094,"corners":4,"corners_per_shot":0.288,"finishing_vs_xg":0.37},"possession_gap":-2.8},"strength":0.113,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Getafe are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.01,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sevilla have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.37,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"107 yellow cards in this referee's last 29 games, where 130 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds. — though 29 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":29,"yellows_per_match":3.69,"reds_per_match":0.172,"league_yellows_per_match":4.49,"league_reds_per_match":0.289,"yellow_ratio":0.82,"red_ratio":0.6,"sample":29,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 382 km for Sevilla.","evidence":{"travel_km":382},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":21.3,"temperature_c":17,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3090485025823161},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Sevilla are the side doing the right things underneath the results. Sevilla are trending up: in their last four games they have made clearly better chances than in the games before. Meanwhile, Getafe have conceded 19 in their last ten from chances that would usually cost about 12. They have been punished for very little. If that carries on, Sevilla should have the better of it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6617,"created_at":"2026-10-26T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":213624,"event_date":"2026-11-01T13:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":50,"home_team":"Getafe","away_team_id":52,"away_team":"Sevilla","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":38.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.383,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213624,"event_date":"2026-11-01T13:00:00Z","home_team":"Getafe","away_team":"Sevilla","polymarket_event_id":"1246217","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-31T16:57:09Z"}},"computed_at":1793534947,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"live_minute":3,"colors":{"home":"#1559a2","away":"#ca1021"},"venue":{"name":"Coliseum Alfonso Pérez","city":"Getafe","capacity":17393},"pulled":[],"published":[]}