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The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Javier Aguirre","matches_in_charge":4,"tenure_days":82,"ppm":0.5,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":0.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.233,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":1.4}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Elche come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.979166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Valencia come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.8958333333333335,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.028,"defence":-0.068,"effective_matches":14.1,"shrunk":0.36},"away":{"attack":-0.115,"defence":-0.005,"effective_matches":14.7,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.6,"shots":13,"xg_per_shot":0.12,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.365,"finishing_vs_xg":0.11},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":45.3,"shots":10.9,"xg_per_shot":0.092,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.344,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.34},"possession_gap":7.3},"strength":0.292,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Elche are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.11,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Valencia have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.34,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"157 yellow cards in this referee's last 30 games, where 136 would be usual in this league, and 7 reds.","evidence":{"matches":30,"yellows_per_match":5.23,"reds_per_match":0.233,"league_yellows_per_match":4.53,"league_reds_per_match":0.297,"yellow_ratio":1.16,"red_ratio":0.79},"strength":0.14,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":3.5}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 137 km for Valencia.","evidence":{"travel_km":137},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.29365756777327195},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Elche will prove they are playing much better than the table suggests. In their last four games, the hosts have created much more dangerous chances than before. They are a team that does not need the ball to be a threat. In two of the four games with less possession, they still created the best openings. However, Elche are missing a big chunk of their goals because Fernando Niño is a doubt. He scored four goals in the last five games and is a difficult man to replace. Valencia are in the bottom three and have lost three of their last six. The result depends on which attack manages to cope without their missing finishers.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6508,"created_at":"2026-10-26T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":213622,"event_date":"2026-11-01T17:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":55,"home_team":"Elche","away_team_id":47,"away_team":"Valencia","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":40.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4007,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213622,"event_date":"2026-11-01T17:30:00Z","home_team":"Elche","away_team":"Valencia","polymarket_event_id":"1247628","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-31T18:57:06Z"}},"computed_at":1793524187,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d9b659","away":"#ed3724"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Martínez Valero","city":"Elche","capacity":31388},"pulled":[],"published":[]}