{"id":213613,"league_id":3,"league":"La Liga","kickoff":1792782000,"home":"Deportivo Alavés","away":"Málaga CF","home_id":45,"away_id":1259,"venue_id":45,"rank":2,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.571,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.64,0.88],"read":{"text":"Deportivo Alavés to edge it","side":"home"},"pass":"Deportivo Alavés v Málaga CF is one to leave alone. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","note":"Málaga CF have taken 0.50 points a game from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.7, and 0.33 a game on the road."}],"lambda_home":1.6406063834781928,"lambda_away":0.8754897968804559,"corner_rate":10.08,"card_rate":0.283,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.814,"home":{"formation":"3-5-2","players":[{"id":2343,"name":"Antonio Sivera","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.82},{"id":2345,"name":"Nahuel Tenaglia","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.763},{"id":13547,"name":"Ville Koski","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.74},{"id":2615,"name":"Nicolás Valentini","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.511},{"id":2352,"name":"Abderrahman Rebbach","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.789},{"id":2344,"name":"Jonny Otto","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.741},{"id":8845,"name":"Ángel Pérez","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.682},{"id":2350,"name":"Pablo Ibáñez","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.751},{"id":2348,"name":"Antonio Blanco","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.745},{"id":2353,"name":"Lucas Boyé","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.745},{"id":2358,"name":"Toni Martínez","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.547},{"id":2364,"name":"Mariano Díaz","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.448},{"id":2351,"name":"Denis Suárez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.444},{"id":2354,"name":"Carles Aleñá","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.349},{"id":36667,"name":"Hugo Novoa","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.345},{"id":2362,"name":"Carlos Benavídez","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.289},{"id":2363,"name":"Youssef Enriquez","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.285},{"id":2356,"name":"Ander Guevara","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.277},{"id":5139,"name":"Aitor Mañas","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.272},{"id":5636,"name":"Xanet Olaiz","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.216},{"id":2996,"name":"Miguel Rodríguez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.148},{"id":29087,"name":"Adrián Rodríguez","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":31393,"name":"Selu Diallo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03}],"confidence":0.836},"away":{"formation":"4-1-4-1","players":[{"id":28433,"name":"Alfonso Herrero","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.819},{"id":28431,"name":"Rafa Garrido","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.751},{"id":28432,"name":"Ángel Recio","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.81},{"id":28425,"name":"Einar Galilea","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.507},{"id":28426,"name":"Carlos Puga","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.537},{"id":28415,"name":"Izan Merino","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.526},{"id":28412,"name":"David Larrubia","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.746},{"id":28413,"name":"Carlos Dotor","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.678},{"id":28417,"name":"Dani Lorenzo","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.615},{"id":4353,"name":"Pablo Martínez","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.542},{"id":28406,"name":"Chupete","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.708},{"id":1289,"name":"Jose Salinas","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.437},{"id":28418,"name":"Rafa Rodríguez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.359},{"id":1276,"name":"Fernando Calero","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.342},{"id":28408,"name":"Adrián Niño","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.315},{"id":9636,"name":"Juan Berrocal","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.272},{"id":28420,"name":"Ramón Enríquez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.245},{"id":28407,"name":"Haitam Abaida","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.232},{"id":28409,"name":"Julen Lobete","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.19},{"id":819,"name":"Adam Aznou","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.173},{"id":28411,"name":"Eneko Jauregi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.168},{"id":28434,"name":"Carlos Lopez","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":28428,"name":"Álex Pastor","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.045}],"confidence":0.814},"unavailable":[{"id":4670,"name":"Facundo Garcés","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"},{"id":41286,"name":"Mikel Rodriguez","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"},{"id":28414,"name":"Aarón Ochoa","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Meniscus Injury"},{"id":28424,"name":"Diego Murillo","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"},{"id":6149,"name":"Jens-Lys Cajuste","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":28410,"name":"Joaquín Muñoz","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Calf Injury"},{"id":28257,"name":"Juan Cruz","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Hamstring Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":2343,"name":"Antonio Sivera","side":"home"},{"id":2345,"name":"Nahuel Tenaglia","side":"home"},{"id":13547,"name":"Ville Koski","side":"home"},{"id":2615,"name":"Nicolás Valentini","side":"home"},{"id":2352,"name":"Abderrahman Rebbach","side":"home"},{"id":2344,"name":"Jonny Otto","side":"home"},{"id":8845,"name":"Ángel Pérez","side":"home"},{"id":2350,"name":"Pablo Ibáñez","side":"home"},{"id":2348,"name":"Antonio Blanco","side":"home"},{"id":2353,"name":"Lucas Boyé","side":"home"},{"id":2358,"name":"Toni Martínez","side":"home"},{"id":2364,"name":"Mariano Díaz","side":"home"},{"id":2351,"name":"Denis Suárez","side":"home"},{"id":2354,"name":"Carles Aleñá","side":"home"},{"id":36667,"name":"Hugo Novoa","side":"home"},{"id":2362,"name":"Carlos Benavídez","side":"home"},{"id":2363,"name":"Youssef Enriquez","side":"home"},{"id":2356,"name":"Ander Guevara","side":"home"},{"id":5139,"name":"Aitor Mañas","side":"home"},{"id":5636,"name":"Xanet Olaiz","side":"home"},{"id":2996,"name":"Miguel Rodríguez","side":"home"},{"id":29087,"name":"Adrián Rodríguez","side":"home"},{"id":31393,"name":"Selu Diallo","side":"home"},{"id":4670,"name":"Facundo Garcés","side":"home"},{"id":2365,"name":"Izei Hernandez","side":"home"},{"id":3924,"name":"Grégoire Swiderski","side":"home"},{"id":41286,"name":"Mikel Rodriguez","side":"home"},{"id":28433,"name":"Alfonso Herrero","side":"away"},{"id":28431,"name":"Rafa Garrido","side":"away"},{"id":28432,"name":"Ángel Recio","side":"away"},{"id":28425,"name":"Einar Galilea","side":"away"},{"id":28426,"name":"Carlos Puga","side":"away"},{"id":28415,"name":"Izan Merino","side":"away"},{"id":28412,"name":"David Larrubia","side":"away"},{"id":28413,"name":"Carlos Dotor","side":"away"},{"id":28417,"name":"Dani Lorenzo","side":"away"},{"id":4353,"name":"Pablo Martínez","side":"away"},{"id":28406,"name":"Chupete","side":"away"},{"id":1289,"name":"Jose Salinas","side":"away"},{"id":28418,"name":"Rafa Rodríguez","side":"away"},{"id":1276,"name":"Fernando Calero","side":"away"},{"id":28408,"name":"Adrián Niño","side":"away"},{"id":9636,"name":"Juan Berrocal","side":"away"},{"id":28420,"name":"Ramón Enríquez","side":"away"},{"id":28407,"name":"Haitam Abaida","side":"away"},{"id":28409,"name":"Julen Lobete","side":"away"},{"id":819,"name":"Adam Aznou","side":"away"},{"id":28411,"name":"Eneko Jauregi","side":"away"},{"id":28434,"name":"Carlos Lopez","side":"away"},{"id":28428,"name":"Álex Pastor","side":"away"},{"id":28424,"name":"Diego Murillo","side":"away"},{"id":28435,"name":"Andres Cespedes","side":"away"},{"id":6149,"name":"Jens-Lys Cajuste","side":"away"},{"id":28410,"name":"Joaquín Muñoz","side":"away"},{"id":28257,"name":"Juan Cruz","side":"away"},{"id":28414,"name":"Aarón Ochoa","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":41286,"name":"Mikel Rodriguez","side":"home","team":"Deportivo Alavés","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":3,"starts":1,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":3,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Getafe","kickoff":1786815000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.035,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":4670,"name":"Facundo Garcés","side":"home","team":"Deportivo Alavés","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":2353,"name":"Lucas Boyé","side":"home","team":"Deportivo Alavés","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":8,"goals":5,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Osasuna","kickoff":1788712200,"goals":3,"assists":0,"score":"5-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.308,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":154,"country":0}},{"id":2358,"name":"Toni Martínez","side":"home","team":"Deportivo Alavés","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.012,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":126,"country":0}},{"id":28257,"name":"Juan Cruz","side":"away","team":"Málaga CF","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"RW","status":"out","reason":"Hamstring Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":8,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":1,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Villarreal","kickoff":1789673400,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"1-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.031,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":28414,"name":"Aarón Ochoa","side":"away","team":"Málaga CF","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"AM","status":"out","reason":"Meniscus Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":1,"starts":0,"goals":1,"assists":1,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":1,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":1,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Leicester City","kickoff":1784998800,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"3-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.022,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":28424,"name":"Diego Murillo","side":"away","team":"Málaga CF","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":"2027-01-10","season":null,"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":6149,"name":"Jens-Lys Cajuste","side":"away","team":"Málaga CF","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":1,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":1,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":28410,"name":"Joaquín Muñoz","side":"away","team":"Málaga CF","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LW","status":"out","reason":"Calf Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":10,"starts":6,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.023,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":84,"country":0}},{"id":28408,"name":"Adrián Niño","side":"away","team":"Málaga CF","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":6,"starts":1,"goals":3,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":2,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Real Sociedad","kickoff":1792341000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-5","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.12,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":110,"country":0}},{"id":28406,"name":"Chupete","side":"away","team":"Málaga CF","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":8,"goals":2,"assists":1,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Leicester City","kickoff":1784998800,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"3-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.142,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":45,"away":1259},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":1},"below":{"w":3,"d":2,"l":3}},"away":{"above":{"w":0,"d":4,"l":5},"below":null}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":441,"name":"Quique Sánchez Flores","vs":null},"away":{"id":820,"name":"Juan Funes","vs":null}},"best_xi":[],"players":{"2353":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Granada","fee":5800000,"at":1755820800}},"4670":{"caps":1,"goals":0,"country":"Malaysia","signed":null},"41286":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Real Sociedad B","fee":2000000,"at":1784160000}}}},"notable":[{"id":747,"name":"Raphinha","goals":12,"rank":1},{"id":594,"name":"Kylian Mbappé","goals":9,"rank":2},{"id":2669,"name":"Ante Budimir","goals":8,"rank":3},{"id":745,"name":"Lamine Yamal","goals":8,"rank":4},{"id":918,"name":"Sergio Camello","goals":7,"rank":5},{"id":2332,"name":"Yassir Zabiri","goals":7,"rank":6},{"id":1284,"name":"Roberto Fernández","goals":6,"rank":7},{"id":769,"name":"Alex Baena","goals":5,"rank":8},{"id":30392,"name":"Fernando Niño","goals":5,"rank":9},{"id":2353,"name":"Lucas Boyé","goals":5,"rank":10},{"id":1932,"name":"Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang","goals":5,"rank":11},{"id":2123,"name":"Roger Brugué","goals":5,"rank":12},{"id":3663,"name":"Fermín López","goals":4,"rank":13},{"id":1577,"name":"Abdessamad Ezzalzouli","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":28408,"name":"Adrián Niño","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 10","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":16,"home_wins":8,"draws":3,"away_wins":5,"home_goals":18,"away_goals":14,"avg_total_goals":2,"home_win_rate":0.5,"away_win_rate":0.3125,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Málaga CF","date":"2023-05-20T16:30:00+00:00","home":"Deportivo Alavés","score":"2-1","event_id":259906,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1259,"home_team_id":45},{"away":"Deportivo Alavés","date":"2022-12-18T20:00:00+00:00","home":"Málaga CF","score":"1-0","event_id":259693,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":45,"home_team_id":1259},{"away":"Deportivo Alavés","date":"2018-05-06T10:00:00+00:00","home":"Málaga CF","score":"0-3","event_id":347225,"away_score":3,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":45,"home_team_id":1259},{"away":"Málaga CF","date":"2017-12-21T20:30:00+00:00","home":"Deportivo Alavés","score":"1-0","event_id":347034,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1259,"home_team_id":45},{"away":"Deportivo Alavés","date":"2017-03-11T17:30:00+00:00","home":"Málaga CF","score":"1-2","event_id":362171,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":45,"home_team_id":1259},{"away":"Málaga CF","date":"2016-10-16T10:00:00+00:00","home":"Deportivo Alavés","score":"1-1","event_id":361981,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1259,"home_team_id":45},{"away":"Málaga CF","date":"2006-02-12T16:00:00+00:00","home":"Deportivo Alavés","score":"3-2","event_id":493876,"away_score":2,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":1259,"home_team_id":45},{"away":"Deportivo Alavés","date":"2005-09-21T19:00:00+00:00","home":"Málaga CF","score":"0-0","event_id":493685,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":45,"home_team_id":1259},{"away":"Málaga CF","date":"2003-04-20T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Deportivo Alavés","score":"0-1","event_id":505085,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":1259,"home_team_id":45},{"away":"Deportivo Alavés","date":"2002-11-24T16:00:00+00:00","home":"Málaga CF","score":"0-0","event_id":504898,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":45,"home_team_id":1259}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":45,"position":7,"played":9,"points":11,"goal_diff":3,"team_name":"Deportivo Alavés","won":3,"drawn":2,"lost":4,"goals_for":13,"goals_against":10,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":1259,"position":20,"played":9,"points":4,"goal_diff":-12,"team_name":"Málaga CF","won":0,"drawn":4,"lost":5,"goals_for":6,"goals_against":18,"group":null},"size":20},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.17,"record":"2-1-3","goals_for":1.33,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"winless 4","sequence":"WWLLDL","venue_ppg":1.5},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.5,"record":"0-3-3","goals_for":0.5,"goals_against":1.67,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"winless 6","sequence":"LDDLLD","venue_ppg":0.33}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Alavés are without 2 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0.077,"combined_importance":0.035,"players":[{"player":"Mikel Rodriguez","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0.077,"importance":0.035,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Facundo Garcés","role":"DEF","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Málaga CF are without 5 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.076,"players":[{"player":"Juan Cruz","role":"MID","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.031,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Joaquín Muñoz","role":"MID","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.023,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Aarón Ochoa","role":"MID","reason":"Meniscus Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.022,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Diego Murillo","role":"DEF","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Jens-Lys Cajuste","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.19,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.814,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.186,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":28,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":7,"points":11,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":16,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":20,"points":4,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":23,"gap_to_safety":-4,"gap_to_europe":10},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Quique Sánchez Flores has 22 matches in charge at Deportivo Alavés, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Quique Sánchez Flores","matches_in_charge":22,"tenure_days":202,"ppm":1.41,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settled","section":"§1.3","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Juan Funes has been at Málaga CF for 2 years and 104 matches: a settled regime with a large, stable sample behind it.","evidence":{"manager":"Juan Funes","matches_in_charge":104,"tenure_days":798,"ppm":1.41,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Alavés come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.197916666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Málaga CF come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.104166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.036,"defence":0.048,"effective_matches":14.2,"shrunk":0.36},"away":{"attack":-0.214,"defence":-0.05,"effective_matches":6.4,"shrunk":0.56}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Málaga CF average 9 points more possession than Deportivo Alavés, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Málaga CF work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":43.3,"shots":11.9,"xg_per_shot":0.111,"corners":4.4,"corners_per_shot":0.372,"finishing_vs_xg":0.19},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52,"shots":10.6,"xg_per_shot":0.077,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.494,"finishing_vs_xg":0.27},"possession_gap":-8.7},"strength":0.349,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":1.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1.8},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Alavés are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.19,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Málaga CF have scored 3 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.27,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 696 km for Málaga CF.","evidence":{"travel_km":696},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":7.6,"temperature_c":6,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.31944861590591533},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"This battle of struggling sides favors Alavés as they face a Málaga team that simply cannot create enough danger. Both teams are suffering through their poorest spells for making chances and protecting their goals, but the visitors are particularly weak when traveling. They have been out-played in every away game lately. While Alavés lose a key defender to a cruciate ligament injury, Málaga are missing their entire midfield engine until at least 20 November. This leaves them without the passing needed to feed Adrián Niño, who has three goals in five games. Alavés will dictate the flow and should win. The visitors' inability to build play from the middle will decide it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5555,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":213613,"event_date":"2026-10-23T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":45,"home_team":"Deportivo Alavés","away_team_id":1259,"away_team":"Málaga CF","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":53.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5362,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213613,"event_date":"2026-10-23T19:00:00Z","home_team":"Deportivo Alavés","away_team":"Málaga CF","polymarket_event_id":"1226578","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-22T07:27:06Z"}},"computed_at":1792657897,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0d379a","away":"#0c4a91"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio de Mendizorroza","city":"Vitoria-Gasteiz","capacity":19840},"pulled":[],"published":[]}