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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.217,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Getafe are without 5 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.2,"combined_importance":0.145,"players":[{"player":"Djené","role":"DEF","reason":"yellow_or_red_card_suspension","goal_share":0,"importance":0.059,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":12},{"player":"Ramón Terrats","role":"MID","reason":"Shoulder Injury","goal_share":0.2,"importance":0.042,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Orel Mangala","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.025,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Zaid Romero","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.019,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":12},{"player":"Juanmi","role":"ATT","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.362,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.9},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.682,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.318,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":28,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":9,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":18,"gap_to_safety":1,"gap_to_europe":5},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":15,"points":9,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":18,"gap_to_safety":1,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Edin Terzić is 9 games into the job at Athletic Club, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Edin Terzić","matches_in_charge":9,"tenure_days":71,"ppm":1.33,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.33,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"José Bordalás has 28 matches in charge at Getafe, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"José Bordalás","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":1.21,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Athletic Club come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.7916666666666665,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.032,"defence":0.078,"effective_matches":13.7,"shrunk":0.37},"away":{"attack":-0.347,"defence":0.136,"effective_matches":14.5,"shrunk":0.36}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Athletic Club average 11 points more possession than Getafe, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":53,"shots":14.3,"xg_per_shot":0.102,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.412,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.38},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":41.6,"shots":12.7,"xg_per_shot":0.074,"corners":5.2,"corners_per_shot":0.408,"finishing_vs_xg":0.06},"possession_gap":11.4},"strength":0.457,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":2.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Athletic Club have scored 5 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.38,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Getafe are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.06,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3050431651835757},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Everything underneath the results points to Athletic Club. Athletic Club have failed to win three of their last eight games in which they made the better chances. Their football is better than their results. And they have scored only 8 in their last eight from chances that would usually bring about 12. The goals are coming. As for the other side, away from home, Getafe have been out-created in four of their last five away games. That is the pattern to trust here, and it favours Athletic Club.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6010,"created_at":"2026-10-19T02:15:31Z","event":{"id":213610,"event_date":"2026-10-25T13:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":51,"home_team":"Athletic Club","away_team_id":50,"away_team":"Getafe","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":60.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6024,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213610,"event_date":"2026-10-25T13:00:00Z","home_team":"Athletic Club","away_team":"Getafe","polymarket_event_id":"1226563","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T02:27:07Z"}},"computed_at":1792817856,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#cf1127","away":"#1559a2"},"venue":{"name":"San Mamés","city":"Bilbao","capacity":53289},"pulled":[],"published":[]}