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either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":30,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":16,"points":7,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":17,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":4},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":20,"points":4,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":20,"gap_to_safety":-1,"gap_to_europe":7},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settled","section":"§1.3","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"José Alberto López has been at Real Racing Club for 2 years and 103 matches: a settled regime with a large, stable sample behind it.","evidence":{"manager":"José Alberto López","matches_in_charge":103,"tenure_days":785,"ppm":1.7,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":2.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Javier Aguirre is 1 game into the job at Valencia. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Javier Aguirre","matches_in_charge":1,"tenure_days":61,"ppm":0,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":0.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.583,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3.5}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"THIN","note":"Real Racing Club have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.","evidence":{"daysRest":null,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Valencia come in on 21 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":21,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":21},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 5.540257920650413 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.027,"defence":-0.291,"effective_matches":5.5,"shrunk":0.59},"away":{"attack":-0.114,"defence":-0.026,"effective_matches":13.7,"shrunk":0.37},"sample":5.540257920650413,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Real Racing Club work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":49.5,"shots":10.3,"xg_per_shot":0.125,"corners":4.4,"corners_per_shot":0.429,"finishing_vs_xg":0.05},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.6,"shots":10.6,"xg_per_shot":0.081,"corners":3.4,"corners_per_shot":0.317,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.11},"possession_gap":1.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Real Racing Club are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.05,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Valencia are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.11,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"149 yellow cards in this referee's last 28 games, where 123 would be usual in this league, and 7 reds. — though 28 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":28,"yellows_per_match":5.32,"reds_per_match":0.25,"league_yellows_per_match":4.39,"league_reds_per_match":0.278,"yellow_ratio":1.21,"red_ratio":0.9,"sample":28,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3136387022387473},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4645,"created_at":"2026-10-05T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":213598,"event_date":"2026-10-11T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1400,"home_team":"Real Racing Club","away_team_id":47,"away_team":"Valencia","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":41.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4107,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":213598,"event_date":"2026-10-11T19:00:00Z","home_team":"Real Racing Club","away_team":"Valencia","polymarket_event_id":"1126345","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-10T17:57:11Z"}},"computed_at":1791699789,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Neither of these is in good shape underneath the results. Real Racing Club have faced six or more efforts on target in five of their last six games. They are getting opened up. As for the other side, Valencia are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. The side that stops giving up the better chances first takes this one.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Valencia are without 8 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":8,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.667,"combined_importance":0.11,"players":[{"player":"Umar Sadiq","role":"ATT","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0.333,"importance":0.043,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Luis Rioja","role":"MID","reason":"Foot Injury","goal_share":0.333,"importance":0.037,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"César Tárrega","role":"DEF","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.024,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"David Otorbi","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.006,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Diego López","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Dimitri Foulquier","role":"DEF","reason":"Physical Discomfort","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"Sergi Canós","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Arnaut Danjuma","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3}]},"strength":0.275,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-2.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.6}]},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Javier Aguirre is 1 game into the job at Valencia. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Javier Aguirre","matches_in_charge":1,"tenure_days":61,"ppm":0,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":0.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.583,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3.5}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.582,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.418,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#2d9829","away":"#ed3724"},"venue":{"name":"El Sardinero","city":"Santander","capacity":22308},"pulled":[],"published":[]}