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Funes","matches_in_charge":102,"tenure_days":784,"ppm":1.43,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manolo Gonzalez has 22 matches in charge at Espanyol, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Manolo Gonzalez","matches_in_charge":22,"tenure_days":189,"ppm":1.14,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.3,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Málaga CF come in on 19 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":19.291666666666668,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":19.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Espanyol come in on 21 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":21,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":21},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 5.698450193770674 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.193,"defence":-0.055,"effective_matches":5.7,"shrunk":0.58},"away":{"attack":-0.078,"defence":-0.016,"effective_matches":13.9,"shrunk":0.37},"sample":5.698450193770674,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Málaga CF work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51.4,"shots":10.5,"xg_per_shot":0.082,"corners":4.9,"corners_per_shot":0.468,"finishing_vs_xg":0.39},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.4,"shots":13.6,"xg_per_shot":0.09,"corners":2.8,"corners_per_shot":0.208,"finishing_vs_xg":0.52},"possession_gap":2.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Málaga CF have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.39,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Espanyol have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.52,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":11.9,"temperature_c":20,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.31180013971022613},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Málaga CF are in trouble, and not only on results. Málaga CF have been out-created in five of their last seven games. On top of that, they shoot plenty but from poor positions: 13 on target from 65 shots in their last six. Until Málaga CF sort that out, they are there to be got at.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4355,"created_at":"2026-10-03T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":213594,"event_date":"2026-10-09T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1259,"home_team":"Málaga CF","away_team_id":53,"away_team":"Espanyol","league_id":3,"league_name":"La Liga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":35.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3547,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1791421969,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0c4a91","away":"#ed232a"},"venue":{"name":"La Rosaleda","city":"Malaga","capacity":30044},"pulled":[],"published":[]}