{"id":213589,"league_id":3,"league":"La Liga","kickoff":1789921800,"home":"Villarreal","away":"Levante UD","home_id":41,"away_id":46,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[3,1],"colors":{"home":"#0b5282","away":"#a80e41"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.13,"bookmaker":"betfair","model_prob":0.835,"narrative":"Forget that tight 1-0 finish from their last meeting; expect plenty of goalmouth action this time. Villarreal are in real trouble. They have lost four of their last six matches while the new manager is still settling in. They are oddly poor at home, and having played only three days ago, fatigue will hit them hard. Can they really hold out with Juan Foyth out with a muscle problem? Levante UD have won two of their last six, though Etta Eyong is out with a thigh problem. Villarreal have won 20 of the last 30 meetings, and everything points to goals.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":3,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":"as we read it","expected_total":3.3,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":1.13,"line":"The game went almost exactly as we read it."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":1.16,"bookmaker":"1xBet","model_prob":0.83,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 1.16. For this to go wrong, Levante UD have to beat an expected 1.23 goals by some distance — which is the risk, stated plainly. Pulling the same way, Villarreal should see more of the ball, though 11 points is a tilt rather than a siege. What the confidence number does not see: Villarreal have had only 2.9 days since their last match. Everything above points the same way: Villarreal avoiding defeat. We make it 83% at 1.16. Short, and short for a reason — the market has this one read the same way we do.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":3,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}