{"id":213430,"league_id":2,"league":"Liga Portugal Betclic","kickoff":1789846200,"home":"Sporting CP","away":"FC Arouca","home_id":22,"away_id":25,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[2,2],"colors":{"home":"#1a6f47","away":null},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"12","line":null,"odds":1.11,"bookmaker":"BetVictor","model_prob":0.867,"narrative":"Double chance 12 at 1.11. The model reads this as a 3.01-goal match, and the call follows from that number rather than from either side. Add it up and a winner rather than a draw is what this points to. 87% likely, returning 11p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"LOST","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"missed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal away from settling the other way."}},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.12,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","model_prob":0.845,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.12. Expected goals total 3.01 against a line of 1.5: above it, which is the call. On that evidence, more than 1.5 goals in it. That puts it at 85%, priced 1.12 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":3,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}