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behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.045,"defence":-0.013,"effective_matches":14.2,"shrunk":0.36},"away":{"attack":-0.078,"defence":-0.111,"effective_matches":7.3,"shrunk":0.52}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":50.9,"shots":14.3,"xg_per_shot":0.119,"corners":6.1,"corners_per_shot":0.427,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.29},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":51.4,"shots":11.1,"xg_per_shot":0.097,"corners":5.6,"corners_per_shot":0.505,"finishing_vs_xg":0.42},"possession_gap":-0.5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Standard Liège have scored 3 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.29,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SK Beveren have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.42,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"58 yellow cards in this referee's last 15 games, where 56 would be usual in this league, and 4 reds. — though 15 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":15,"yellows_per_match":3.87,"reds_per_match":0.267,"league_yellows_per_match":3.73,"league_reds_per_match":0.253,"yellow_ratio":1.04,"red_ratio":1.06,"sample":15,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 113 km for SK Beveren.","evidence":{"travel_km":113},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":3.5,"temperature_c":4,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.262968569707337},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6914,"created_at":"2026-10-31T02:15:20Z","event":{"id":212816,"event_date":"2026-11-06T19:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":239,"home_team":"Standard Liège","away_team_id":2414,"away_team":"SK Beveren","league_id":14,"league_name":"Pro League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":48.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4842,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793991567,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Neither of these is in good shape underneath the results. Standard Liège have faced six or more efforts on target in four of their last six games. They are getting opened up. As for the other side, SK Beveren have been out-created in six of their last ten games. And away from home, they have been out-created in four of their last five away games. The side that stops giving up the better chances first takes this one.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Standard Liège are without 4 players, and Casper Nielsen is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.133,"combined_importance":0.301,"players":[{"player":"Casper Nielsen","role":"MID","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0.133,"importance":0.166,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":13,"tags":["top_creator"]},{"player":"Marlon Fossey","role":"DEF","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.071,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Matthieu Epolo","role":"GK","reason":"Concussion","goal_share":0,"importance":0.064,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Josué Homawoo","role":"DEF","reason":"Achilles Tendon Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5}]},"strength":0.752,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.9},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":1.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.8}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SK Beveren are without 1 player, and Jearl Margaritha is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":1,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0.154,"combined_importance":0.13,"players":[{"player":"Jearl Margaritha","role":"MID","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0.154,"importance":0.13,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.325,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.lineup_confirmed","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The starting elevens are confirmed, so selection is known rather than guessed.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":null},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tim Bakens is 15 games into the job at SK Beveren, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Tim Bakens","matches_in_charge":15,"tenure_days":129,"ppm":1.27,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.7,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"live_minute":11,"colors":{"home":"#988344","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Maurice Dufrasne","city":"Liege","capacity":27670},"pulled":[],"published":[]}