{"id": 212657, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 2, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": 6, "home_goals": 3, "away_win_rate": 1, "home_win_rate": 0, "total_matches": 2, "recent_matches": [{"away": "Iceland", "date": "2005-09-07T16:00:00+00:00", "home": "Bulgaria", "score": "3-2", "event_id": 492243, "away_score": 2, "home_score": 3, "away_team_id": 665, "home_team_id": 2090}, {"away": "Bulgaria", "date": "2004-09-04T16:00:00+00:00", "home": "Iceland", "score": "1-3", "event_id": 492049, "away_score": 3, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 2090, "home_team_id": 665}], "avg_total_goals": 4.5}, "away": "Bulgaria", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 0.83, "record": "1-2-3", "streak": "winless 4", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LWLDLD", "goals_for": 0.83, "venue_ppg": 0.5, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 1.33}, "home": {"ppg": 1, "record": "1-3-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "DDLLDW", "goals_for": 1.17, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 1.33}}, "home": "Iceland", "pass": "Iceland v Bulgaria is one to leave alone. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 3, "read": {"side": "home", "text": "Iceland to win"}, "flags": [{"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Iceland average 14 points more possession than Bulgaria, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Bulgaria work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.", "section": "§4.2"}], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Reykjavik", "name": "Ice Rink Laugardalur", "capacity": 1000}, "colors": {"away": "#0b8a68", "home": "#0b3b8b"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": {"above": {"d": 1, "l": 1, "w": 0}, "below": null}, "home": {"above": null, "below": {"d": 1, "l": 0, "w": 1}}}, "teams": {"away": 2090, "home": 665}, "best_xi": [], "players": {"3241": {"caps": 31, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "Iceland"}, "4814": {"caps": 12, "goals": 7, "signed": null, "country": "Iceland"}, "6450": {"caps": 35, "goals": 8, "signed": null, "country": "Iceland"}, "13856": {"caps": 30, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "Bulgaria"}}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 1514, "vs": null, "name": "Aleksandar Dimitrov"}, "home": {"id": 84, "vs": null, "name": "Arnar Bergmann Gunnlaugsson"}}}, "lambda": [1.07, 1.23], "league": "UEFA Nations League", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.absences", "note": "Iceland are without 1 player, none of them central to how the side plays.", "tier": 1, "moves": [{"pct": 1.2, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"count": 1, "players": [{"role": "GK", "tags": ["first_choice_keeper"], "player": "Elías Ólafsson", "reason": "Unknown", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.065, "cover_at_position": 0}], "measured": 1, "combined_goal_share": 0, "combined_importance": 0.065}, "strength": 0.163}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Bulgaria report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.545, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.455}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Arnar Bergmann Gunnlaugsson is 5 games into the job at Iceland. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 1, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1, "manager": "Arnar Bergmann Gunnlaugsson", "tenure_days": 187, "matches_in_charge": 5, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1, "before_ppm": 1.1}}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Aleksandar Dimitrov is 4 games into the job at Bulgaria. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 1.4, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 0.5, "manager": "Aleksandar Dimitrov", "tenure_days": 125, "matches_in_charge": 4, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 0.5, "before_ppm": 0.4}}, "strength": 0.233}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Iceland come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8854166666666665, "days_rest": 3.9, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Bulgaria come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8854166666666665, "days_rest": 3.9, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 2.0690776837927 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": -0.044, "shrunk": 0.79, "defence": 0.052, "effective_matches": 2.1}, "home": {"attack": 0.106, "shrunk": 0.79, "defence": 0.077, "effective_matches": 2.1}, "sample": 2.0690776837927, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Iceland average 14 points more possession than Bulgaria, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Bulgaria work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.", "tier": 5, "moves": [{"pct": 3, "side": "home", "channel": "corners"}, {"pct": -3, "side": "away", "channel": "corners"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 6.8, "corners": 3, "matches": 12, "possession": 33.4, "xg_per_shot": 0.085, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.1, "corners_per_shot": 0.444}, "home": {"shots": 8.8, "corners": 2.9, "matches": 12, "possession": 47.6, "xg_per_shot": 0.121, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.18, "corners_per_shot": 0.33}, "possession_gap": 14.2}, "strength": 0.568}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Iceland are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.18}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "Bulgaria are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": -0.304451477725764}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 478, "name": "Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 5734, "name": "Logi Tomasson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16950, "name": "Victor Pálsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 29483, "name": "Daníel Grétarsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 9578, "name": "Dagur Dan Þórhallsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2592, "name": "Mikael Ellertsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2521, "name": "Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16575, "name": "Gylfi Sigurðsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1459, "name": "Hakon Arnar Haraldsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 6450, "name": "Andri Guðjohnsen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 4814, "name": "Orri Óskarsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2942, "name": "Sverrir Ingason", "side": "home"}, {"id": 10727, "name": "Hörður Magnússon", "side": "home"}, {"id": 5263, "name": "Kristian Hlynsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 12268, "name": "Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 5393, "name": "Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 12682, "name": "Anton Ari Einarsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 6744, "name": "Andri Fannar Baldursson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1333, "name": "Albert Guðmundsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 28353, "name": "Ísak Snær Þorvaldsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16140, "name": "Mikael Anderson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 4575, "name": "Arnór Sigurðsson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 12267, "name": "Kristall Máni Ingason", "side": "home"}, {"id": 5745, "name": "Dimitar Mitov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 10638, "name": "Dimitar Velkovski", "side": "away"}, {"id": 11243, "name": "Kristian Dimitrov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 11873, "name": "Emil Tsenov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 10773, "name": "Ivan Turitsov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 5315, "name": "Hristiyan Petrov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 373, "name": "Ilia Gruev", "side": "away"}, {"id": 11550, "name": "Kristiyan Stoyanov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54090, "name": "Zdravko Dimitrov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 13856, "name": "Martin Minchev", "side": "away"}, {"id": 8971, "name": "Marin Petkov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 29722, "name": "Stefan Velkov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 10901, "name": "Daniel Naumov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 41480, "name": "Lukas Petkov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 10742, "name": "Georgi Rusev", "side": "away"}, {"id": 10800, "name": "Petko Panayotov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 3319, "name": "Ivajlo Chochev", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54093, "name": "Andrian Kraev", "side": "away"}, {"id": 24808, "name": "Yoni Stoyanov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 10776, "name": "Teodor Ivanov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 11359, "name": "Asen Chandarov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 13748, "name": "Vladimir Nikolov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 10744, "name": "Borislav Tsonev", "side": "away"}, {"id": 3241, "name": "Elías Ólafsson", "side": "home"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 2090, "home_id": 665, "kickoff": 1791043200, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 5745, "name": "Dimitar Mitov", "ai_score": 0.373, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 10638, "name": "Dimitar Velkovski", "ai_score": 0.434, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 11243, "name": "Kristian Dimitrov", "ai_score": 0.602, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 11873, "name": "Emil Tsenov", "ai_score": 0.381, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 10773, "name": "Ivan Turitsov", "ai_score": 0.368, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 5315, "name": "Hristiyan Petrov", "ai_score": 0.373, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 373, "name": "Ilia Gruev", "ai_score": 0.639, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 11550, "name": "Kristiyan Stoyanov", "ai_score": 0.324, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 54090, "name": "Zdravko Dimitrov", "ai_score": 0.413, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 13856, "name": "Martin Minchev", "ai_score": 0.265, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 8971, "name": "Marin Petkov", "ai_score": 0.427, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 29722, "name": "Stefan Velkov", "ai_score": 0.346, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 10901, "name": "Daniel Naumov", "ai_score": 0.343, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 41480, "name": "Lukas Petkov", "ai_score": 0.328, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 10742, "name": "Georgi Rusev", "ai_score": 0.327, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 10800, "name": "Petko Panayotov", "ai_score": 0.313, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 3319, "name": "Ivajlo Chochev", "ai_score": 0.305, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 54093, "name": "Andrian Kraev", "ai_score": 0.29, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 24808, "name": "Yoni Stoyanov", "ai_score": 0.285, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 10776, "name": "Teodor Ivanov", "ai_score": 0.253, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 11359, "name": "Asen Chandarov", "ai_score": 0.248, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 13748, "name": "Vladimir Nikolov", "ai_score": 0.244, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 10744, "name": "Borislav Tsonev", "ai_score": 0.216, "position": "M", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0.545}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 478, "name": "Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson", "ai_score": 0.465, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 5734, "name": "Logi Tomasson", "ai_score": 0.477, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 16950, "name": "Victor Pálsson", "ai_score": 0.686, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 29483, "name": "Daníel Grétarsson", "ai_score": 0.635, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 9578, "name": "Dagur Dan Þórhallsson", "ai_score": 0.241, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 2592, "name": "Mikael Ellertsson", "ai_score": 0.728, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 2521, "name": "Ísak Bergmann 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Einarsson", "ai_score": 0.301, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 6744, "name": "Andri Fannar Baldursson", "ai_score": 0.267, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 1333, "name": "Albert Guðmundsson", "ai_score": 0.245, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 28353, "name": "Ísak Snær Þorvaldsson", "ai_score": 0.241, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 16140, "name": "Mikael Anderson", "ai_score": 0.231, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 4575, "name": "Arnór Sigurðsson", "ai_score": 0.229, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 12267, "name": "Kristall Máni Ingason", "ai_score": 0.223, "position": "M", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-4-2", "confidence": 0.586}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.545, "unavailable": [{"id": 3241, "name": "Elías Ólafsson", "side": "home", "reason": "Unknown", "team_id": null}]}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 852, "name": "Erling Haaland", "rank": 1, "goals": 3}, {"id": 28704, "name": "Joel Pohjanpalo", "rank": 2, "goals": 3}, {"id": 745, "name": "Lamine Yamal", "rank": 3, "goals": 3}, {"id": 22868, "name": "Zeki Amdouni", "rank": 4, "goals": 3}, {"id": 6450, "name": "Andri Guðjohnsen", "rank": 5, "goals": 2}, {"id": 711, "name": "Anthony Gordon", "rank": 6, "goals": 2}, {"id": 2466, "name": "Harry Kane", "rank": 7, "goals": 2}, {"id": 7881, "name": "João Félix", "rank": 8, "goals": 2}, {"id": 8996, "name": "Leo Walta", "rank": 9, "goals": 2}, {"id": 5591, "name": "Mexx Meerdink", "rank": 10, "goals": 2}, {"id": 1311, "name": "Nikola Krstović", "rank": 11, "goals": 2}, {"id": 456, "name": "Viktor Gyökeres", "rank": 12, "goals": 2}, {"id": 6537, "name": "Adam Idah", "rank": 13, "goals": 1}, {"id": 1117, "name": "Adam Karabec", "rank": 14, "goals": 1}, {"id": 12738, "name": "Adrian Svanback", "rank": 15, "goals": 1}], "players": [{"id": 3241, "club": "FC Midtjylland", "load": {"games": 1, "country": 0, "minutes": 96}, "name": "Elías Ólafsson", "role": "GK", "side": "home", "tags": ["first_choice_keeper"], "team": "Iceland", "reason": "Unknown", "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 13, "goals": 0, "starts": 13, "assists": 0, "team_games": 18, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 4, "tracked_apps": 13, "tracked_starts": 13}, "status": "out", "country": {"apps": 1, "team": "Iceland", "goals": 0, "lately": null, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "GK", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.065, "expected_return": "2026-10-20"}, {"id": 6450, "club": "Blackburn Rovers", "load": {"games": 2, "country": 2, "minutes": 160}, "name": "Andri Guðjohnsen", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": ["in_form"], "team": "Iceland", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 3, "assists": 1, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 2}, "season": {"apps": 8, "goals": 4, "starts": 5, "assists": 1, "team_games": 14, "big_chances": 3, "clean_sheets": 1, "tracked_apps": 8, "tracked_starts": 5}, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 2, "team": "Iceland", "goals": 2, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 2, "assists": 1}, "assists": 1, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": false, "goals": 1, "score": "2-2", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1786734000, "opponent": "Wolverhampton"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.166, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 4814, "club": "Real Sociedad", "load": {"games": 3, "country": 2, "minutes": 199}, "name": "Orri Óskarsson", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Iceland", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 1}, "season": {"apps": 8, "goals": 1, "starts": 5, "assists": 0, "team_games": 15, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 1, "tracked_apps": 8, "tracked_starts": 5}, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 3, "team": "Iceland", "goals": 1, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "assists": 1}, "assists": 1, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": true, "goals": 1, "score": "2-1", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1788022800, "opponent": "Espanyol"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.031, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 13856, "club": "KS Cracovia", "load": {"games": 1, "country": 1, "minutes": 34}, "name": "Martin Minchev", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Bulgaria", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "country": 1, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 8, "goals": 2, "starts": 7, "assists": 0, "team_games": 14, "big_chances": 1, "clean_sheets": 2, "tracked_apps": 8, "tracked_starts": 7}, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 1, "team": "Bulgaria", "goals": 0, "lately": {"apps": 1, "goals": 0, "assists": 0}, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": false, "goals": 1, "score": "1-2", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1787998500, "opponent": "Radomiak Radom"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.074, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4115, "event": {"id": 212657, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Bulgaria", "home_team": "Iceland", "league_id": 64, "event_date": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "league_name": "UEFA Nations League", "away_team_id": 2090, "home_team_id": 665}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.6629}, "created_at": "2026-09-27T02:15:30Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 66.3}}}, "venue_id": 3084, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.208, "league_id": 64, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 0, "lost": 1, "drawn": 1, "group": "League C, Group 4", "played": 2, "points": 1, "team_id": 2090, "position": 4, "goal_diff": -1, "goals_for": 1, "team_name": "Bulgaria", "goals_against": 2}, "home": {"won": 1, "lost": 0, "drawn": 1, "group": "League C, Group 4", "played": 2, "points": 4, "team_id": 665, "position": 1, "goal_diff": 3, "goals_for": 4, "team_name": "Iceland", "goals_against": 1}, "size": 54}, "confidence": 0.372, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871093, "corner_rate": 8.38, "lambda_away": 1.2334260463039692, "lambda_home": 1.0675339418414047, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was double chance X2 at 2.86, where the model confidence of 37% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "League C, Group 4 · Matchday 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}