{"id": 212656, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 2, "away_goals": 0, "home_goals": 6, "away_win_rate": 0, "home_win_rate": 1, "total_matches": 2, "recent_matches": [{"away": "Estonia", "date": "2005-10-12T18:15:00+00:00", "home": "Luxembourg", "score": "0-2", "event_id": 492314, "away_score": 2, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 2208, "home_team_id": 2091}, {"away": "Luxembourg", "date": "2004-09-04T15:00:00+00:00", "home": "Estonia", "score": "4-0", "event_id": 492066, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 4, "away_team_id": 2091, "home_team_id": 2208}], "avg_total_goals": 3}, "away": "Luxembourg", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 2, "record": "4-0-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WWLWWL", "goals_for": 1.33, "venue_ppg": 3, "clean_sheets": 3, "goals_against": 0.83}, "home": {"ppg": 1, "record": "1-3-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LDLWDD", "goals_for": 1.33, "venue_ppg": 0.5, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 1.83}}, "home": "Estonia", "pass": "Nothing to take on Estonia against Luxembourg. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 3, "read": {"side": null, "text": "Too close to call. A draw is live"}, "flags": [], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Tallinn", "name": "A. Le Coq Arena", "capacity": 14336}, "colors": {"away": "#1098cb", "home": "#2890ee"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": {"above": {"d": 0, "l": 1, "w": 0}, "below": {"d": 0, "l": 0, "w": 1}}, "home": {"above": {"d": 1, "l": 0, "w": 0}, "below": {"d": 1, "l": 0, "w": 0}}}, "teams": {"away": 2091, "home": 2208}, "best_xi": [], "players": {"4382": {"caps": 15, "goals": 1, "signed": null, "country": "Luxembourg"}, "54272": {"caps": 44, "goals": 9, "signed": null, "country": "Estonia"}, "54416": {"caps": 4, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "Estonia"}}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 1674, "vs": null, "name": "Jeff Strasser"}, "home": {"id": 1566, "vs": null, "name": "Jurgen Henn"}}}, "lambda": [1.03, 1.3], "league": "UEFA Nations League", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Estonia report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Luxembourg report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.595, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.405}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Jurgen Henn is 2 games into the job at Estonia. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 4.2, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1, "manager": "Jurgen Henn", "tenure_days": 120, "matches_in_charge": 2, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1, "before_ppm": 0.8}}, "strength": 0.467}, {"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Jeff Strasser is 4 games into the job at Luxembourg. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 1.4, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.5, "manager": "Jeff Strasser", "tenure_days": 123, "matches_in_charge": 4, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.5, "before_ppm": 0.7}}, "strength": 0.233}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Estonia come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8854166666666665, "days_rest": 3.9, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Luxembourg come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8854166666666665, "days_rest": 3.9, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 2.01594630375431 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": -0.012, "shrunk": 0.75, "defence": -0.069, "effective_matches": 2.6}, "home": {"attack": -0.086, "shrunk": 0.8, "defence": 0.041, "effective_matches": 2}, "sample": 2.01594630375431, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 8.5, "corners": 2.9, "matches": 12, "possession": 49.1, "xg_per_shot": 0.088, "finishing_vs_xg": 0, "corners_per_shot": 0.34}, "home": {"shots": 7.6, "corners": 2.8, "matches": 12, "possession": 42.4, "xg_per_shot": 0.111, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.24, "corners_per_shot": 0.368}, "possession_gap": -6.6}, "strength": 0.266}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Estonia are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.24}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "Luxembourg are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {"rain_mm": null, "wind_kph": 9.5, "description": "cloudy", "temperature_c": 14}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": -0.304451477725764}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 2510, "name": "Karl Hein", "side": "home"}, {"id": 8443, "name": "Michael Schjønning-Larsen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 7469, "name": "Maksim Paskotsi", "side": "home"}, {"id": 13876, "name": "Märten Kuusk", "side": "home"}, {"id": 13346, "name": "Frank Liivak", "side": "home"}, {"id": 7815, "name": "Mattias Käit", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54275, "name": "Markus Poom", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54270, "name": "Robi Saarma", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54274, "name": "Patrik Kristal", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54416, "name": "Karel Mustmaa", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54272, "name": "Rauno Sappinen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2480, "name": "Karol Mets", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54271, "name": "Kevor Palumets", "side": "home"}, {"id": 22459, "name": "Rasmus Peetson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 50173, "name": "Markus Soomets", "side": "home"}, {"id": 22461, "name": "Joseph Saliste", "side": "home"}, {"id": 8510, "name": "Alex Matthias Tamm", "side": "home"}, {"id": 24793, "name": "Erko Tõugjas", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54273, "name": "Martin Miller", "side": "home"}, {"id": 13341, "name": "Mihkel Ainsalu", "side": "home"}, {"id": 60017, "name": "Mattias Männilaan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54277, "name": "Henri Anier", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54417, "name": "Joonas Tamm", "side": "home"}, {"id": 7891, "name": "Anthony Moris", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54159, "name": "Dirk Carlson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 29749, "name": "Seid Korać", "side": "away"}, {"id": 5248, "name": "Enes Mahmutović", "side": "away"}, {"id": 26629, "name": "Florian Bohnert", "side": "away"}, {"id": 56263, "name": "Vincent Thill", "side": "away"}, {"id": 4382, "name": "Aiman Dardari", "side": "away"}, {"id": 2059, "name": "Leandro Barreiro", "side": "away"}, {"id": 30893, "name": "Mathias Olesen", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54162, "name": "Tomas de Sousa Moreira", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54161, "name": "Olivier Thill", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54160, "name": "Laurent Jans", "side": "away"}, {"id": 7561, "name": "Marvin Martins", "side": "away"}, {"id": 60152, "name": "Hamza Kadamani", "side": "away"}, {"id": 2487, "name": "Danel Sinani", "side": "away"}, {"id": 11970, "name": "Vahid Selimović", "side": "away"}, {"id": 39121, "name": "Sebastien Thill", "side": "away"}, {"id": 2882, "name": "Tiago Pereira Cardoso", "side": "away"}, {"id": 77389, "name": "Omar Natami", "side": "away"}, {"id": 56264, "name": "Jayson Videira Pereira", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42102, "name": "Eldin Džogović", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54165, "name": "Eric Veiga", "side": "away"}, {"id": 56375, "name": "Timothé Rupil", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 2091, "home_id": 2208, "kickoff": 1791043200, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 7891, "name": "Anthony Moris", "ai_score": 0.802, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 54159, "name": "Dirk Carlson", "ai_score": 0.686, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 29749, "name": "Seid Korać", "ai_score": 0.66, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 5248, "name": "Enes Mahmutović", "ai_score": 0.493, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 26629, "name": "Florian Bohnert", "ai_score": 0.556, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 56263, "name": "Vincent Thill", "ai_score": 0.577, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 4382, "name": "Aiman Dardari", "ai_score": 0.694, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 2059, "name": "Leandro Barreiro", "ai_score": 0.683, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 30893, "name": "Mathias Olesen", "ai_score": 0.671, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 54162, "name": "Tomas de Sousa Moreira", "ai_score": 0.484, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 54161, "name": "Olivier Thill", "ai_score": 0.353, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 54160, "name": "Laurent Jans", "ai_score": 0.359, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 7561, "name": "Marvin Martins", "ai_score": 0.342, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 60152, "name": "Hamza Kadamani", "ai_score": 0.321, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 2487, "name": "Danel Sinani", "ai_score": 0.289, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 11970, "name": "Vahid Selimović", "ai_score": 0.214, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 39121, "name": "Sebastien Thill", "ai_score": 0.213, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 2882, "name": "Tiago Pereira Cardoso", "ai_score": 0.207, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 77389, "name": "Omar Natami", "ai_score": 0.191, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 56264, "name": "Jayson Videira Pereira", "ai_score": 0.178, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 42102, "name": "Eldin Džogović", "ai_score": 0.161, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 54165, "name": "Eric Veiga", "ai_score": 0.154, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 56375, "name": "Timothé Rupil", "ai_score": 0.154, "position": "M", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-1-4-1", "confidence": 0.7}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 2510, "name": "Karl Hein", "ai_score": 0.755, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 8443, "name": "Michael Schjønning-Larsen", "ai_score": 0.667, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 7469, "name": "Maksim Paskotsi", "ai_score": 0.69, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 13876, "name": "Märten Kuusk", "ai_score": 0.579, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 13346, "name": "Frank Liivak", "ai_score": 0.203, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 7815, "name": "Mattias Käit", "ai_score": 0.553, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 54275, "name": "Markus Poom", "ai_score": 0.308, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 54270, "name": "Robi Saarma", "ai_score": 0.42, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 54274, "name": "Patrik Kristal", "ai_score": 0.406, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 54416, "name": "Karel Mustmaa", "ai_score": 0.249, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 54272, "name": "Rauno Sappinen", "ai_score": 0.438, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 2480, "name": "Karol Mets", "ai_score": 0.485, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 54271, "name": "Kevor Palumets", "ai_score": 0.472, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 22459, "name": "Rasmus Peetson", "ai_score": 0.417, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 50173, "name": "Markus Soomets", "ai_score": 0.406, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 22461, "name": "Joseph Saliste", "ai_score": 0.363, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 8510, "name": "Alex Matthias Tamm", "ai_score": 0.303, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 24793, "name": "Erko Tõugjas", "ai_score": 0.253, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 54273, "name": "Martin Miller", "ai_score": 0.25, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 13341, "name": "Mihkel Ainsalu", "ai_score": 0.239, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 60017, "name": "Mattias Männilaan", "ai_score": 0.213, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 54277, "name": "Henri Anier", "ai_score": 0.209, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 54417, "name": "Joonas Tamm", "ai_score": 0.15, "position": "D", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "confidence": 0.595}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.595, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 852, "name": "Erling Haaland", "rank": 1, "goals": 3}, {"id": 28704, "name": "Joel Pohjanpalo", "rank": 2, "goals": 3}, {"id": 745, "name": "Lamine Yamal", "rank": 3, "goals": 3}, {"id": 22868, "name": "Zeki Amdouni", "rank": 4, "goals": 3}, {"id": 6450, "name": "Andri Guðjohnsen", "rank": 5, "goals": 2}, {"id": 711, "name": "Anthony Gordon", "rank": 6, "goals": 2}, {"id": 2466, "name": "Harry Kane", "rank": 7, "goals": 2}, {"id": 7881, "name": "João Félix", "rank": 8, "goals": 2}, {"id": 8996, "name": "Leo Walta", "rank": 9, "goals": 2}, {"id": 5591, "name": "Mexx Meerdink", "rank": 10, "goals": 2}, {"id": 1311, "name": "Nikola Krstović", "rank": 11, "goals": 2}, {"id": 456, "name": "Viktor Gyökeres", "rank": 12, "goals": 2}, {"id": 6537, "name": "Adam Idah", "rank": 13, "goals": 1}, {"id": 1117, "name": "Adam Karabec", "rank": 14, "goals": 1}, {"id": 12738, "name": "Adrian Svanback", "rank": 15, "goals": 1}], "players": [{"id": 54272, "club": "Olympiakos Nicosia", "load": null, "name": "Rauno Sappinen", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Estonia", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 54416, "club": "FK Čukarički", "load": {"games": 2, "country": 2, "minutes": 123}, "name": "Karel Mustmaa", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Estonia", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 2, "team": "Estonia", "goals": 0, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0}, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "RW", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 4382, "club": "Rot-Weiss Essen", "load": {"games": 2, "country": 2, "minutes": 173}, "name": "Aiman Dardari", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Luxembourg", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 2, "team": "Luxembourg", "goals": 0, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0}, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "LW", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4112, "event": {"id": 212656, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Luxembourg", "home_team": "Estonia", "league_id": 64, "event_date": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "league_name": "UEFA Nations League", "away_team_id": 2091, "home_team_id": 2208}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.3775}, "created_at": "2026-09-27T02:15:30Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "A", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 37.8}}}, "venue_id": 375, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.207, "league_id": 64, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 1, "lost": 1, "drawn": 0, "group": "League C, Group 4", "played": 2, "points": 3, "team_id": 2091, "position": 2, "goal_diff": -2, "goals_for": 2, "team_name": "Luxembourg", "goals_against": 4}, "home": {"won": 0, "lost": 0, "drawn": 2, "group": "League C, Group 4", "played": 2, "points": 2, "team_id": 2208, "position": 3, "goal_diff": 0, "goals_for": 1, "team_name": "Estonia", "goals_against": 1}, "size": 54}, "confidence": 0.394, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871094, "corner_rate": 8.16, "lambda_away": 1.3049933952358457, "lambda_home": 1.0261679244851676, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was under 9.5 corners at 1.50, where the model confidence of 39% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "League C, Group 4 · Matchday 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}