{"id": 212655, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 2, "away_goals": 0, "home_goals": 7, "away_win_rate": 0, "home_win_rate": 1, "total_matches": 2, "recent_matches": [{"away": "Belarus", "date": "2018-11-18T17:00:00+00:00", "home": "San Marino", "score": "0-2", "event_id": 338730, "away_score": 2, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 677, "home_team_id": 710}, {"away": "San Marino", "date": "2018-09-08T16:00:00+00:00", "home": "Belarus", "score": "5-0", "event_id": 338631, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 5, "away_team_id": 710, "home_team_id": 677}], "avg_total_goals": 3.5}, "away": "San Marino", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 0.17, "record": "0-1-5", "streak": "lost 4", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LDLLLL", "goals_for": 0.5, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 2.67}, "home": {"ppg": 1.83, "record": "3-2-1", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WWWDLD", "goals_for": 1.5, "venue_ppg": 2, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1}}, "home": "Belarus", "pass": "Passing on Belarus v San Marino. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 3, "read": {"side": "home", "text": "Belarus to win, with goals"}, "flags": [{"id": "form.away", "note": "San Marino have taken 0.17 points a game from their last 6 (0W 1D 5L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 2.7.", "section": "§2.1"}, {"id": "market.movement", "note": "Since opening, DRAW has drifted 15.0% since the market opened.", "section": "§7.1"}], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Budapest", "name": "Stadion Rudolf Illovszky", "capacity": 5054}, "colors": {"away": null, "home": "#a50e0d"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": {"above": {"d": 0, "l": 2, "w": 0}, "below": null}, "home": {"above": {"d": 1, "l": 1, "w": 0}, "below": null}}, "teams": {"away": 710, "home": 677}, "best_xi": [], "players": {"13930": {"caps": 19, "goals": 1, "signed": null, "country": "Belarus"}, "17057": {"caps": 46, "goals": 3, "signed": null, "country": "San Marino"}, "17058": {"caps": 14, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "San Marino"}, "54098": {"caps": 25, "goals": 5, "signed": null, "country": "Belarus"}}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 75, "vs": null, "name": "Roberto Cevoli"}, "home": {"id": 804, "vs": null, "name": "Viktor Gancharenko"}}}, "lambda": [1.19, 1.16], "league": "UEFA Nations League", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Belarus report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "San Marino report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.545, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.455}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.settling", "note": "Viktor Gancharenko is 6 games into the job at Belarus, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.83, "manager": "Viktor Gancharenko", "tenure_days": 192, "matches_in_charge": 6, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.83, "before_ppm": 1.1}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Roberto Cevoli is 5 games into the job at San Marino. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 0.7, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 0.2, "manager": "Roberto Cevoli", "tenure_days": 187, "matches_in_charge": 5, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 0.2, "before_ppm": 0}}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Belarus come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 4, "days_rest": 4, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "San Marino come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8854166666666665, "days_rest": 3.9, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 1.99877163356929 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": -0.135, "shrunk": 0.8, "defence": -0.345, "effective_matches": 2}, "home": {"attack": -0.138, "shrunk": 0.8, "defence": 0.03, "effective_matches": 2}, "sample": 1.99877163356929, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; San Marino work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.", "tier": 5, "moves": [{"pct": -3, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 3.8, "corners": 2.5, "matches": 12, "possession": 31.5, "xg_per_shot": 0.104, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.02, "corners_per_shot": 0.652}, "home": {"shots": 9.8, "corners": 3.2, "matches": 12, "possession": 36.7, "xg_per_shot": 0.066, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.44, "corners_per_shot": 0.325}, "possession_gap": 5.2}, "strength": 0.209}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Belarus have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.44}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "San Marino are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.02}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": -0.304451477725764}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 10772, "name": "Fedor Lapoukhov", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16421, "name": "Kirill Pechenin", "side": "home"}, {"id": 13180, "name": "Vladislav Kalinin", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16419, "name": "Zakhar Volkov", "side": "home"}, {"id": 13175, "name": "Roman Begunov", "side": "home"}, {"id": 10789, "name": "Max Ebong", "side": "home"}, {"id": 3584, "name": "Valeriy Gromyko", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54098, "name": "Vitaliy Lisakovich", "side": "home"}, {"id": 10900, "name": "Evgeniy Yablonskiy", "side": "home"}, {"id": 13184, "name": "Yevgeniy Malashevich", "side": "home"}, {"id": 13930, "name": "German Barkovskiy", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16424, "name": "Aleksandr Selyava", "side": "home"}, {"id": 11597, "name": "Egor Parkhomenko", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16423, "name": "Artem Shumanskiy", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54099, "name": "Trofim Melnichenko", "side": "home"}, {"id": 59568, "name": "Kirill Gomanov", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54097, "name": "Vladislav Malkevich", "side": "home"}, {"id": 95250, "name": "Anton Kovalev", "side": "home"}, {"id": 69724, "name": "Aliaksandr Svirepa", "side": "home"}, {"id": 84935, "name": "Anton Lukashov", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16427, "name": "Artem Kontsevoy", "side": "home"}, {"id": 59569, "name": "Ivan Tsikhamirau", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16429, "name": "Pavel Pavlyuchenko", "side": "home"}, {"id": 17049, "name": "Edoardo Colombo", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17063, "name": "Alberto Riccardi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17051, "name": "Michele Cevoli", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17052, "name": "Dante Rossi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17060, "name": "Giacomo Benvenuti", "side": "away"}, {"id": 60615, "name": "Cristian Meloni", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17054, "name": "Lorenzo Capicchioni", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17061, "name": "Marcello Mularoni", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54087, "name": "Samuele Zannoni", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17057, "name": "Nicola Nanni", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17058, "name": "Samuel Pancotti", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17050, "name": "Filippo Fabbri", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17055, "name": "Lorenzo Lazzari", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17053, "name": "Alessandro Tosi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17056, "name": "Nicolas Giacopetti", "side": "away"}, {"id": 13479, "name": "Alessandro Golinucci", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17059, "name": "Filippo Berardi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17066, "name": "Marco Pasolini", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17064, "name": "Simone Giocondi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17062, "name": "Gabriel Capicchioni", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17065, "name": "Matteo Valli Casadei", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54088, "name": "Matteo Vitaioli", "side": "away"}, {"id": 215132, "name": "Enea Dell Balda", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 710, "home_id": 677, "kickoff": 1791043200, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 17049, "name": "Edoardo Colombo", "ai_score": 0.536, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 17063, "name": "Alberto Riccardi", "ai_score": 0.313, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 17051, "name": "Michele Cevoli", "ai_score": 0.488, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 17052, "name": "Dante Rossi", "ai_score": 0.347, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 17060, "name": "Giacomo Benvenuti", "ai_score": 0.28, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 60615, "name": "Cristian Meloni", "ai_score": 0.247, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 17054, "name": "Lorenzo Capicchioni", "ai_score": 0.4, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 17061, "name": "Marcello Mularoni", "ai_score": 0.325, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 54087, "name": "Samuele Zannoni", "ai_score": 0.439, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 17057, "name": "Nicola Nanni", "ai_score": 0.454, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 17058, "name": "Samuel Pancotti", "ai_score": 0.316, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 17050, "name": "Filippo Fabbri", "ai_score": 0.312, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 17055, "name": "Lorenzo Lazzari", "ai_score": 0.312, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 17053, "name": "Alessandro Tosi", "ai_score": 0.297, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 17056, "name": "Nicolas Giacopetti", "ai_score": 0.27, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 13479, "name": "Alessandro Golinucci", "ai_score": 0.268, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 17059, "name": "Filippo Berardi", "ai_score": 0.259, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 17066, "name": "Marco Pasolini", "ai_score": 0.25, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 17064, "name": "Simone Giocondi", "ai_score": 0.245, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 17062, "name": "Gabriel Capicchioni", "ai_score": 0.236, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 17065, "name": "Matteo Valli Casadei", "ai_score": 0.231, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 54088, "name": "Matteo Vitaioli", "ai_score": 0.165, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 215132, "name": "Enea Dell Balda", "ai_score": 0.154, "position": "M", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-3-2-1", "confidence": 0.545}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 10772, "name": "Fedor Lapoukhov", "ai_score": 0.622, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 16421, "name": "Kirill Pechenin", "ai_score": 0.54, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 13180, "name": "Vladislav Kalinin", "ai_score": 0.402, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 16419, "name": "Zakhar Volkov", "ai_score": 0.362, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 13175, "name": "Roman Begunov", "ai_score": 0.314, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 10789, "name": "Max Ebong", "ai_score": 0.584, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 3584, "name": "Valeriy Gromyko", "ai_score": 0.479, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 54098, "name": "Vitaliy Lisakovich", "ai_score": 0.376, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 10900, "name": "Evgeniy Yablonskiy", "ai_score": 0.383, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 13184, "name": "Yevgeniy Malashevich", "ai_score": 0.395, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 13930, "name": "German Barkovskiy", "ai_score": 0.459, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 16424, "name": "Aleksandr Selyava", "ai_score": 0.333, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 11597, "name": "Egor Parkhomenko", "ai_score": 0.309, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 16423, "name": "Artem Shumanskiy", "ai_score": 0.267, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 54099, "name": "Trofim Melnichenko", "ai_score": 0.258, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 59568, "name": "Kirill Gomanov", "ai_score": 0.255, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 54097, "name": "Vladislav Malkevich", "ai_score": 0.234, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 95250, "name": "Anton Kovalev", "ai_score": 0.228, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 69724, "name": "Aliaksandr Svirepa", "ai_score": 0.215, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 84935, "name": "Anton Lukashov", "ai_score": 0.203, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 16427, "name": "Artem Kontsevoy", "ai_score": 0.179, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 59569, "name": "Ivan Tsikhamirau", "ai_score": 0.145, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 16429, "name": "Pavel Pavlyuchenko", "ai_score": 0.04, "position": "G", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "confidence": 0.577}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.545, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 852, "name": "Erling Haaland", "rank": 1, "goals": 3}, {"id": 28704, "name": "Joel Pohjanpalo", "rank": 2, "goals": 3}, {"id": 745, "name": "Lamine Yamal", "rank": 3, "goals": 3}, {"id": 22868, "name": "Zeki Amdouni", "rank": 4, "goals": 3}, {"id": 6450, "name": "Andri Guðjohnsen", "rank": 5, "goals": 2}, {"id": 711, "name": "Anthony Gordon", "rank": 6, "goals": 2}, {"id": 2466, "name": "Harry Kane", "rank": 7, "goals": 2}, {"id": 7881, "name": "João Félix", "rank": 8, "goals": 2}, {"id": 8996, "name": "Leo Walta", "rank": 9, "goals": 2}, {"id": 5591, "name": "Mexx Meerdink", "rank": 10, "goals": 2}, {"id": 1311, "name": "Nikola Krstović", "rank": 11, "goals": 2}, {"id": 456, "name": "Viktor Gyökeres", "rank": 12, "goals": 2}, {"id": 6537, "name": "Adam Idah", "rank": 13, "goals": 1}, {"id": 1117, "name": "Adam Karabec", "rank": 14, "goals": 1}, {"id": 12738, "name": "Adrian Svanback", "rank": 15, "goals": 1}], "players": [{"id": 13930, "club": "Polonia Warszawa", "load": {"games": 2, "country": 2, "minutes": 147}, "name": "German Barkovskiy", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Belarus", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 2, "team": "Belarus", "goals": 0, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0}, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 54098, "club": "FC Tobyl", "load": {"games": 2, "country": 2, "minutes": 87}, "name": "Vitaliy Lisakovich", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Belarus", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 2, "team": "Belarus", "goals": 0, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0}, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 17057, "club": "Arzignano Valchiampo", "load": {"games": 2, "country": 2, "minutes": 180}, "name": "Nicola Nanni", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "San Marino", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 2, "team": "San Marino", "goals": 0, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0}, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 17058, "club": "La Fiorita", "load": {"games": 2, "country": 2, "minutes": 105}, "name": "Samuel Pancotti", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "San Marino", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 2, "team": "San Marino", "goals": 0, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0}, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4116, "event": {"id": 212655, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "San Marino", "home_team": "Belarus", "league_id": 64, "event_date": "2026-10-03T16:00:00Z", "league_name": "UEFA Nations League", "away_team_id": 710, "home_team_id": 677}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.8537}, "created_at": "2026-09-27T02:15:30Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 85.4}}}, "venue_id": 988, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.231, "league_id": 64, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 0, "lost": 2, "drawn": 0, "group": "League C, Group 1", "played": 2, "points": 0, "team_id": 710, "position": 4, "goal_diff": -10, "goals_for": 0, "team_name": "San Marino", "goals_against": 10}, "home": {"won": 0, "lost": 1, "drawn": 1, "group": "League C, Group 1", "played": 2, "points": 1, "team_id": 677, "position": 3, "goal_diff": -2, "goals_for": 0, "team_name": "Belarus", "goals_against": 2}, "size": 54}, "confidence": 0.374, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871789, "corner_rate": 7.87, "lambda_away": 1.1591813695317115, "lambda_home": 1.1948531847882569, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was double chance X2 at 6.85, where the model confidence of 37% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "League C, Group 1 · Matchday 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}