{"id": 212654, "h2h": {"draws": 1, "away_wins": 6, "home_wins": 1, "away_goals": 21, "home_goals": 9, "away_win_rate": 0.75, "home_win_rate": 0.125, "total_matches": 8, "recent_matches": [{"away": "Croatia", "date": "2026-06-17T20:00:00+00:00", "home": "England", "score": "4-2", "event_id": 8308, "away_score": 2, "home_score": 4, "away_team_id": 494, "home_team_id": 493}, {"away": "Croatia", "date": "2021-06-13T13:00:00+00:00", "home": "England", "score": "1-0", "event_id": 274811, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 494, "home_team_id": 493}, {"away": "Croatia", "date": "2018-11-18T14:00:00+00:00", "home": "England", "score": "2-1", "event_id": 338727, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 494, "home_team_id": 493}, {"away": "England", "date": "2018-10-12T18:45:00+00:00", "home": "Croatia", "score": "0-0", "event_id": 338666, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 493, "home_team_id": 494}, {"away": "England", "date": "2018-07-11T18:00:00+00:00", "home": "Croatia", "score": "2-1", "event_id": 339599, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 493, "home_team_id": 494}, {"away": "Croatia", "date": "2009-09-09T19:00:00+00:00", "home": "England", "score": "5-1", "event_id": 460497, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 5, "away_team_id": 494, "home_team_id": 493}, {"away": "England", "date": "2008-09-10T19:00:00+00:00", "home": "Croatia", "score": "1-4", "event_id": 460321, "away_score": 4, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 493, "home_team_id": 494}, {"away": "England", "date": "2004-06-21T18:45:00+00:00", "home": "Croatia", "score": "2-4", "event_id": 499674, "away_score": 4, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 493, "home_team_id": 494}], "avg_total_goals": 3.75}, "away": "England", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1.67, "record": "3-1-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WDLWLW", "goals_for": 2.5, "venue_ppg": 2.5, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 2}, "home": {"ppg": 1.5, "record": "3-0-3", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LWWLWL", "goals_for": 1.5, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 2}}, "home": "Croatia", "pass": "Croatia v England is one to leave alone. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 3, "read": {"side": "away", "text": "England to edge it"}, "flags": [], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Rijeka", "name": "Stadion HNK Rijeka Dean Šćulac", "capacity": 8279}, "colors": {"away": "#cd1124", "home": "#181794"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": {"above": {"d": 0, "l": 1, "w": 0}, "below": {"d": 0, "l": 0, "w": 1}}, "home": {"above": {"d": 0, "l": 1, "w": 0}, "below": {"d": 0, "l": 0, "w": 1}}}, "teams": {"away": 493, "home": 494}, "best_xi": [], "players": {"422": {"caps": 51, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "England"}, "699": {"caps": 13, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "England"}, "711": {"caps": 36, "goals": 6, "signed": null, "country": "England"}, "854": {"caps": 105, "goals": 3, "signed": null, "country": "England"}, "2466": {"caps": 113, "goals": 58, "signed": null, "country": "England"}, "2669": {"caps": 59, "goals": 5, "signed": null, "country": "Croatia"}, "3243": {"caps": 36, "goals": 1, "signed": null, "country": "Croatia"}}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 108, "vs": {"d": 0, "l": 0, "w": 1, "last": {"score": "4-2", "result": "W", "kickoff": 1781726400}}, "name": "Thomas Tuchel"}, "home": {"id": 2069, "vs": null, "name": "Slaven Bilić"}}}, "lambda": [1.07, 1.62], "league": "UEFA Nations League", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.absences", "note": "Croatia are without 1 player, none of them central to how the side plays.", "tier": 1, "moves": [{"pct": -0.1, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": 0.4, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": 0.1, "side": "both", "channel": "cards"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"count": 1, "players": [{"role": "DEF", "player": "Martin Erlić", "reason": "Unknown", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.027, "cover_at_position": 0}], "measured": 1, "combined_goal_share": 0, "combined_importance": 0.027}, "strength": 0.15}, {"id": "availability.away.absences", "note": "England are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.", "tier": 1, "moves": [{"pct": 0, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": 0.6, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": 0.1, "side": "both", "channel": "cards"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"count": 3, "players": [{"role": "GK", "player": "Dean Henderson", "reason": "Foot Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.018, "cover_at_position": 0}, {"role": "DEF", "player": "John Stones", "reason": "Thigh Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.017, "cover_at_position": 0}, {"role": "DEF", "player": "Tino Livramento", "reason": "Knock Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.005, "cover_at_position": 0}], "measured": 3, "combined_goal_share": 0, "combined_importance": 0.04}, "strength": 0.15}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.782, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.218}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "The reverse fixture finished 4-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {"reverse_margin": -2}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Slaven Bilić is 2 games into the job at Croatia. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 4.2, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.5, "manager": "Slaven Bilić", "tenure_days": 8, "matches_in_charge": 2, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.5, "before_ppm": 1.8}}, "strength": 0.467}, {"id": "manager.away.settling", "note": "Thomas Tuchel is 13 games into the job at England, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 2.15, "manager": "Thomas Tuchel", "tenure_days": 187, "matches_in_charge": 13, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 2.2, "before_ppm": 2.5}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Croatia come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8854166666666665, "days_rest": 3.9, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "England come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.8854166666666665, "days_rest": 3.9, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 2.01643858576596 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.071, "shrunk": 0.8, "defence": -0.03, "effective_matches": 2}, "home": {"attack": -0.013, "shrunk": 0.79, "defence": -0.105, "effective_matches": 2.1}, "sample": 2.01643858576596, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 17.1, "corners": 5.9, "matches": 12, "possession": 58.2, "xg_per_shot": 0.109, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.39, "corners_per_shot": 0.346}, "home": {"shots": 12.2, "corners": 4.3, "matches": 12, "possession": 54.7, "xg_per_shot": 0.108, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.35, "corners_per_shot": 0.349}, "possession_gap": -3.5}, "strength": 0.14}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Croatia have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.35}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "England have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.39}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "131 yellow cards in this referee's last 40 games, where 164 would be usual in this league, and 4 reds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [{"pct": -4.5, "side": "both", "channel": "cards"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§13", "evidence": {"matches": 40, "red_ratio": 0.47, "yellow_ratio": 0.8, "reds_per_match": 0.1, "yellows_per_match": 3.27, "league_reds_per_match": 0.213, "league_yellows_per_match": 4.09}, "strength": 0.179}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {"rain_mm": null, "wind_kph": 7.4, "description": "rain", "temperature_c": 23}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": -0.304451477725764}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 1053, "name": "Dominik Livaković", "side": "home"}, {"id": 846, "name": "Joško Gvardiol", "side": "home"}, {"id": 3767, "name": "Josip Šutalo", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1591, "name": "Luka Vušković", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2468, "name": "Josip Stanišić", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1685, "name": "Petar Sučić", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1993, "name": "Luka Modrić", "side": "home"}, {"id": 3510, "name": "Ivan Perišić", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2833, "name": "Martin Baturina", "side": "home"}, {"id": 9568, "name": "Marco Pašalić", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2669, "name": "Ante Budimir", "side": "home"}, {"id": 4350, "name": "Mateo Kovačić", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1322, "name": "Marin Pongračić", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1844, "name": "Nikola Vlašić", "side": 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