{"id": 212653, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Albania", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1, "record": "2-0-4", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LLLLWW", "goals_for": 1, "venue_ppg": 1, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 0.83}, "home": {"ppg": 1.17, "record": "2-1-3", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LWLLWD", "goals_for": 2, "venue_ppg": 1.33, "clean_sheets": 3, "goals_against": 1.17}}, "home": "Finland", "pass": "Nothing to take on Finland against Albania. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 3, "read": {"side": null, "text": "Too close to call"}, "flags": [], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Helsinki", "name": "Helsinki Olympic Stadium", "capacity": 36200}, "colors": {"away": "#ec1313", "home": "#0a3976"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": {"above": null, "below": {"d": 0, "l": 0, "w": 2}}, "home": {"above": null, "below": {"d": 1, "l": 0, "w": 1}}}, "teams": {"away": 724, "home": 721}, "best_xi": [], "players": {"2637": {"caps": 9, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "Finland"}, "3346": {"caps": 28, "goals": 1, "signed": null, "country": "Albania"}, "12481": {"caps": 6, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "Albania"}, "28704": {"caps": 66, "goals": 12, "signed": null, "country": "Finland"}, "54216": {"caps": 45, "goals": 7, "signed": null, "country": "Albania"}}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 1603, "vs": null, "name": "Rolando Maran"}, "home": {"id": 573, "vs": null, "name": "Jacob Friis"}}}, "lambda": [1.1, 1.36], "league": "UEFA Nations League", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.absences", "note": "Finland are without 1 player, none of whom register in the scoring records.", "tier": 1, "moves": [{"pct": 0.9, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"count": 1, "players": [{"role": "GK", "player": "Lucas Bergström", "reason": "national_team", "doubtful": false, "measured": false, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.05, "cover_at_position": 0}], "measured": 0, "combined_goal_share": 0, "combined_importance": 0}, "strength": 0.15}, {"id": "availability.away.absences", "note": "Albania are without 1 player, none of whom register in the scoring records.", "tier": 1, "moves": [{"pct": -0.1, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": 0.7, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": 0.2, "side": "both", "channel": "cards"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"count": 1, "players": [{"role": "DEF", "player": "Klisman Cake", "reason": "Physical Discomfort", "doubtful": false, "measured": false, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.05, "cover_at_position": 0}], "measured": 0, "combined_goal_share": 0, "combined_importance": 0}, "strength": 0.15}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.655, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.345}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Jacob Friis is 4 games into the job at Finland. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 2.1, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1, "manager": "Jacob Friis", "tenure_days": 126, "matches_in_charge": 4, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1, "before_ppm": 1.3}}, "strength": 0.233}, {"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Rolando Maran is 3 games into the job at Albania. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 2.1, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 2, "manager": "Rolando Maran", "tenure_days": 123, "matches_in_charge": 3, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.5, "before_ppm": 1.7}}, "strength": 0.35}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Finland come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.875, "days_rest": 3.9, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Albania come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.7604166666666665, "days_rest": 3.8, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 2.01498540091776 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.12, "shrunk": 0.8, "defence": 0.123, "effective_matches": 2}, "home": {"attack": 0.192, "shrunk": 0.8, "defence": 0.146, "effective_matches": 2}, "sample": 2.01498540091776, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 11.4, "corners": 4, "matches": 12, "possession": 54.8, "xg_per_shot": 0.111, "finishing_vs_xg": -0.1, "corners_per_shot": 0.352}, "home": {"shots": 11, "corners": 4.6, "matches": 12, "possession": 52.4, "xg_per_shot": 0.129, "finishing_vs_xg": 0, "corners_per_shot": 0.421}, "possession_gap": -2.4}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Finland are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "Albania are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": -0.1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": -0.304451477725764}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 2222, "name": "Lukáš Hrádecký", "side": "home"}, {"id": 27531, "name": "Juho Lähteenmäki", "side": "home"}, {"id": 13547, "name": "Ville Koski", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16287, "name": "Tony Miettinen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 10888, "name": "Nikolai Alho", "side": "home"}, {"id": 26378, "name": "Kaan Kairinen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 8996, "name": "Leo Walta", "side": "home"}, {"id": 26313, "name": "Adam Markhiev", "side": "home"}, {"id": 5751, "name": "Topi Keskinen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 28704, "name": "Joel Pohjanpalo", "side": "home"}, {"id": 3023, "name": "Oliver Antman", "side": "home"}, {"id": 3399, "name": "Viljami Sinisalo", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16058, "name": "Adam Ståhl", "side": "home"}, {"id": 28011, "name": "Benjamin Källman", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16059, "name": "Miro Tenho", "side": "home"}, {"id": 9114, "name": "Robin Lod", "side": "home"}, {"id": 50301, "name": "Santeri Väänänen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 12738, "name": "Adrian Svanback", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54252, "name": "Ryan Mahuta", "side": "home"}, {"id": 28727, "name": "Jesse Joronen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 39193, "name": "Niklas Pyyhtiä", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16046, "name": "Anssi Suhonen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 12796, "name": "Samuli Miettinen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 11151, "name": "Thomas Strakosha", "side": "away"}, {"id": 8154, "name": "Mario Mitaj", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1300, "name": "Berat Djimsiti", "side": "away"}, {"id": 4078, "name": "Ardian Ismajli", "side": "away"}, {"id": 3835, "name": "Elseid Hysaj", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1840, "name": "Kristjan Asllani", "side": "away"}, {"id": 14016, "name": "Juljan Shehu", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1813, "name": "Ylber Ramadani", "side": "away"}, {"id": 3346, "name": "Arber Hoxha", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54216, "name": "Rey Manaj", "side": "away"}, {"id": 9305, "name": "Myrto Uzuni", "side": "away"}, {"id": 26742, "name": "Arlind Ajeti", "side": "away"}, {"id": 8495, "name": "Alen Sherri", "side": "away"}, {"id": 6617, "name": "Ernest Muçi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 6309, "name": "Anis Mehmeti", "side": "away"}, {"id": 6793, "name": "Nedim Bajrami", "side": "away"}, {"id": 417, "name": "Armando Broja", "side": "away"}, {"id": 5854, "name": "Qazim Laci", "side": "away"}, {"id": 12730, "name": "Etrit Berisha", "side": "away"}, {"id": 11166, "name": "Stavros Pilios", "side": "away"}, {"id": 56320, "name": "Andi Hadroj", "side": "away"}, {"id": 64474, "name": "Samuele Sina", "side": "away"}, {"id": 17243, "name": "Naser Aliji", "side": "away"}, {"id": 2637, "name": "Lucas Bergström", "side": "home"}, {"id": 12481, "name": "Klisman Cake", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 724, "home_id": 721, "kickoff": 1791032400, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 11151, "name": "Thomas Strakosha", "ai_score": 0.478, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 8154, "name": "Mario Mitaj", "ai_score": 0.546, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 1300, "name": "Berat Djimsiti", "ai_score": 0.613, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 4078, "name": "Ardian Ismajli", "ai_score": 0.495, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 3835, "name": "Elseid Hysaj", "ai_score": 0.53, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 1840, "name": "Kristjan Asllani", "ai_score": 0.691, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 14016, "name": "Juljan Shehu", "ai_score": 0.483, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 1813, "name": "Ylber Ramadani", "ai_score": 0.405, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 3346, "name": "Arber Hoxha", "ai_score": 0.528, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 54216, "name": "Rey Manaj", "ai_score": 0.488, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 9305, "name": "Myrto Uzuni", "ai_score": 0.483, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 26742, "name": "Arlind Ajeti", "ai_score": 0.41, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 8495, "name": "Alen Sherri", "ai_score": 0.357, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 6617, "name": "Ernest Muçi", "ai_score": 0.354, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 6309, "name": "Anis Mehmeti", "ai_score": 0.342, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 6793, "name": "Nedim Bajrami", "ai_score": 0.322, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 417, "name": "Armando Broja", "ai_score": 0.316, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 5854, "name": "Qazim Laci", "ai_score": 0.261, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 12730, "name": "Etrit Berisha", "ai_score": 0.251, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 11166, "name": "Stavros Pilios", "ai_score": 0.25, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 56320, "name": "Andi Hadroj", "ai_score": 0.249, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 64474, "name": "Samuele Sina", "ai_score": 0.248, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 17243, "name": "Naser Aliji", "ai_score": 0.234, "position": "D", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0.655}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 2222, "name": "Lukáš Hrádecký", "ai_score": 0.478, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 27531, "name": "Juho Lähteenmäki", "ai_score": 0.562, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 13547, "name": "Ville Koski", "ai_score": 0.802, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 16287, "name": "Tony Miettinen", "ai_score": 0.424, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 10888, "name": "Nikolai Alho", "ai_score": 0.459, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 26378, "name": "Kaan Kairinen", "ai_score": 0.618, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 8996, "name": "Leo Walta", "ai_score": 0.768, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 26313, "name": "Adam Markhiev", "ai_score": 0.69, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 5751, "name": "Topi Keskinen", "ai_score": 0.499, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 28704, "name": "Joel Pohjanpalo", "ai_score": 0.552, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 3023, "name": "Oliver Antman", "ai_score": 0.555, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 3399, "name": "Viljami Sinisalo", "ai_score": 0.431, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 16058, "name": "Adam Ståhl", "ai_score": 0.417, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 28011, "name": "Benjamin Källman", "ai_score": 0.417, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 16059, "name": "Miro Tenho", "ai_score": 0.368, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 9114, "name": "Robin Lod", "ai_score": 0.353, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 50301, "name": "Santeri Väänänen", "ai_score": 0.352, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 12738, "name": "Adrian Svanback", "ai_score": 0.313, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 54252, "name": "Ryan Mahuta", "ai_score": 0.309, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 28727, "name": "Jesse Joronen", "ai_score": 0.308, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 39193, "name": "Niklas Pyyhtiä", "ai_score": 0.301, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 16046, "name": "Anssi Suhonen", "ai_score": 0.294, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 12796, "name": "Samuli Miettinen", "ai_score": 0.276, "position": "D", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0.659}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.655, "unavailable": [{"id": 2637, "name": "Lucas Bergström", "side": "home", "reason": "national_team", "team_id": null}, {"id": 12481, "name": "Klisman Cake", "side": "away", "reason": "Physical Discomfort", "team_id": null}]}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 852, "name": "Erling Haaland", "rank": 1, "goals": 3}, {"id": 28704, "name": "Joel Pohjanpalo", "rank": 2, "goals": 3}, {"id": 745, "name": "Lamine Yamal", "rank": 3, "goals": 3}, {"id": 22868, "name": "Zeki Amdouni", "rank": 4, "goals": 3}, {"id": 6450, "name": "Andri Guðjohnsen", "rank": 5, "goals": 2}, {"id": 711, "name": "Anthony Gordon", "rank": 6, "goals": 2}, {"id": 2466, "name": "Harry Kane", "rank": 7, "goals": 2}, {"id": 7881, "name": "João Félix", "rank": 8, "goals": 2}, {"id": 8996, "name": "Leo Walta", "rank": 9, "goals": 2}, {"id": 5591, "name": "Mexx Meerdink", "rank": 10, "goals": 2}, {"id": 1311, "name": "Nikola Krstović", "rank": 11, "goals": 2}, {"id": 456, "name": "Viktor Gyökeres", "rank": 12, "goals": 2}, {"id": 6537, "name": "Adam Idah", "rank": 13, "goals": 1}, {"id": 1117, "name": "Adam Karabec", "rank": 14, "goals": 1}, {"id": 12738, "name": "Adrian Svanback", "rank": 15, "goals": 1}], "players": [{"id": 2637, "club": "Mallorca", "load": null, "name": "Lucas Bergström", "role": "GK", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Finland", "reason": "national_team", "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "out", "country": null, "position": "GK", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": "2026-10-04"}, {"id": 28704, "club": "Palermo", "load": {"games": 2, "country": 2, "minutes": 149}, "name": "Joel Pohjanpalo", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": ["in_form"], "team": "Finland", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 6, "assists": 0, "country": 3, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 2, "goals": 3, "starts": 0, "assists": 0, "team_games": 9, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 0, "tracked_apps": 2, "tracked_starts": 0}, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 4, "team": "Finland", "goals": 3, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 3, "assists": 0}, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": true, "goals": 2, "score": "5-2", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1788451200, "opponent": "Mantova"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.028, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 12481, "club": "Akhmat Grozny", "load": null, "name": "Klisman Cake", "role": "DEF", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Albania", "reason": "Physical Discomfort", "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "out", "country": null, "position": "CB", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": "2026-10-21"}, {"id": 3346, "club": "GNK Dinamo Zagreb", "load": {"games": 2, "country": 2, "minutes": 111}, "name": "Arber Hoxha", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Albania", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 8, "goals": 1, "starts": 5, "assists": 1, "team_games": 17, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 4, "tracked_apps": 8, "tracked_starts": 5}, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 4, "team": "Albania", "goals": 1, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0}, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "LW", "standout": {"won": false, "goals": 1, "score": "1-3", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1787770800, "opponent": "Viking FK"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.031, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 54216, "club": "Sivasspor", "load": {"games": 2, "country": 2, "minutes": 140}, "name": "Rey Manaj", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Albania", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 1}, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 2, "team": "Albania", "goals": 1, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "assists": 1}, "assists": 1, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4151, "event": {"id": 212653, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Albania", "home_team": "Finland", "league_id": 64, "event_date": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "league_name": "UEFA Nations League", "away_team_id": 724, "home_team_id": 721}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.3902}, "created_at": "2026-09-27T02:15:30Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 39}}}, "venue_id": 532, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.209, "league_id": 64, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 2, "lost": 0, "drawn": 0, "group": "League C, Group 1", "played": 2, "points": 6, "team_id": 724, "position": 1, "goal_diff": 5, "goals_for": 5, "team_name": "Albania", "goals_against": 0}, "home": {"won": 1, "lost": 0, "drawn": 1, "group": "League C, Group 1", "played": 2, "points": 4, "team_id": 721, "position": 2, "goal_diff": 7, "goals_for": 7, "team_name": "Finland", "goals_against": 0}, "size": 54}, "confidence": 0.38, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871920, "corner_rate": 8.05, "lambda_away": 1.361611385238552, "lambda_home": 1.102975330608571, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was double chance X2 at 1.58, where the model confidence of 38% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "League C, Group 1 · Matchday 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}