{"id": 212651, "h2h": {"draws": 2, "away_wins": 2, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": 5, "home_goals": 2, "away_win_rate": 0.5, "home_win_rate": 0, "total_matches": 4, "recent_matches": [{"away": "Latvia", "date": "2021-09-07T18:45:00+00:00", "home": "Montenegro", "score": "0-0", "event_id": 262977, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 2262, "home_team_id": 700}, {"away": "Montenegro", "date": "2021-03-24T19:45:00+00:00", "home": "Latvia", "score": "1-2", "event_id": 262853, "away_score": 2, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 700, "home_team_id": 2262}, {"away": "Latvia", "date": "2020-10-07T16:00:00+00:00", "home": "Montenegro", "score": "1-1", "event_id": 279327, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 2262, "home_team_id": 700}, {"away": "Latvia", "date": "2012-08-15T18:30:00+00:00", "home": "Montenegro", "score": "2-0", "event_id": 425017, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 2262, "home_team_id": 700}], "avg_total_goals": 1.75}, "away": "Montenegro", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 2.17, "record": "4-1-1", "streak": "unbeaten 4", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WLWDWW", "goals_for": 2, "venue_ppg": 2.33, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1.33}, "home": {"ppg": 1.33, "record": "2-2-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "DLWWLD", "goals_for": 0.5, "venue_ppg": 2, "clean_sheets": 4, "goals_against": 0.67}}, "home": "Latvia", "pass": "Passing on Latvia v Montenegro. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 3, "read": {"side": "away", "text": "Montenegro to edge it"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "form.away", "note": "Montenegro have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3, and 2.33 a game on the road.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Rīga", "name": "Skonto", "capacity": 8087}, "colors": {"away": "#d31511", "home": "#961e32"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": {"above": null, "below": {"d": 0, "l": 0, "w": 2}}, "home": {"above": {"d": 1, "l": 1, "w": 0}, "below": null}}, "teams": {"away": 700, "home": 2262}, "best_xi": [], "players": {"1311": {"caps": 27, "goals": 6, "signed": null, "country": "Montenegro"}, "6947": {"caps": 31, "goals": 2, "signed": null, "country": "Montenegro"}, "13758": {"caps": 52, "goals": 12, "signed": null, "country": "Latvia"}}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 73, "vs": null, "name": "Mirko Vučinić"}, "home": {"id": 1686, "vs": null, "name": "Paolo Nicolato"}}}, "lambda": [0.88, 1.51], "league": "UEFA Nations League", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Latvia report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Montenegro report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.486, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.514}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "The reverse fixture finished 0-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {"reverse_margin": 0}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.settling", "note": "Paolo Nicolato is 12 games into the job at Latvia, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1, "manager": "Paolo Nicolato", "tenure_days": 561, "matches_in_charge": 12, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 0.7, "before_ppm": 0.6}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Mirko Vučinić is 5 games into the job at Montenegro. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 0.7, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 2, "manager": "Mirko Vučinić", "tenure_days": 186, "matches_in_charge": 5, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 2, "before_ppm": 1.3}}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Latvia come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 4, "days_rest": 4, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Montenegro come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 4, "days_rest": 4, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 2.00335601545472 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.159, "shrunk": 0.8, "defence": 0.003, "effective_matches": 2}, "home": {"attack": -0.129, "shrunk": 0.75, "defence": 0.061, "effective_matches": 2.6}, "sample": 2.00335601545472, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 14.3, "corners": 5.8, "matches": 12, "possession": 49.5, "xg_per_shot": 0.108, "finishing_vs_xg": -0.04, "corners_per_shot": 0.402}, "home": {"shots": 8.5, "corners": 4.4, "matches": 12, "possession": 44.5, "xg_per_shot": 0.127, "finishing_vs_xg": -0.58, "corners_per_shot": 0.518}, "possession_gap": -5}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Latvia have scored 7 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": -0.58}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "Montenegro are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": -0.04}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "135 yellow cards in this referee's last 28 games, where 114 would be usual in this league, and 14 reds. — though 28 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§13", "evidence": {"sample": 28, "matches": 28, "required": 30, "red_ratio": 2.35, "yellow_ratio": 1.18, "reds_per_match": 0.5, "yellows_per_match": 4.82, "league_reds_per_match": 0.213, "league_yellows_per_match": 4.09}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {"rain_mm": null, "wind_kph": 2.7, "description": "unknown", "temperature_c": 15}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": -0.304451477725764}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 54189, "name": "Rihards Matrevics", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54361, "name": "Antonijs Černomordijs", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54201, "name": "Daniels Balodis", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54190, "name": "Deniss Melniks", "side": "home"}, {"id": 7463, "name": "Andrejs Cigaņiks", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54191, "name": "Raivis Jurkovskis", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54194, "name": "Eduards Daskevics", "side": "home"}, {"id": 12808, "name": "Dmitrijs Zelenkovs", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54193, "name": "Lūkass Vapne", "side": "home"}, {"id": 76219, "name": "Markuss Strods", "side": "home"}, {"id": 13758, "name": "Vladislavs Gutkovskis", "side": "home"}, {"id": 12801, "name": "Roberts Savaļnieks", "side": "home"}, {"id": 12949, "name": "Jānis Ikaunieks", "side": "home"}, {"id": 46962, "name": "Roberts Uldriķis", "side": "home"}, {"id": 5643, "name": "Dennis Cirkin", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54195, "name": "Aleksejs Saveljevs", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54192, "name": "Maksims Tonisevs", "side": "home"}, {"id": 56258, "name": "Eduards Emsis", "side": "home"}, {"id": 86666, "name": "Oskars Vientiess", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54203, "name": "Danila Patijčuks", "side": "home"}, {"id": 24898, "name": "Albert Aleksanjan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54202, "name": "Kristaps Grabovskis", "side": "home"}, {"id": 24313, "name": "Frenks Orols", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16761, "name": "Igor Nikić", "side": "away"}, {"id": 10734, "name": "Ognjen Gašević", "side": "away"}, {"id": 6620, "name": "Stefan Savić", "side": "away"}, {"id": 2919, "name": "Andrej Đurić", "side": "away"}, {"id": 12991, "name": "Milan Roganović", "side": "away"}, {"id": 2196, "name": "Vasilije Adžić", "side": "away"}, {"id": 3635, "name": "Marko Janković", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1424, "name": "Andrija Bulatović", "side": "away"}, {"id": 16750, "name": "Marko Vešović", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1311, "name": "Nikola Krstović", "side": "away"}, {"id": 6947, "name": "Milutin Osmajić", "side": "away"}, {"id": 16749, "name": "Balša Popović", "side": "away"}, {"id": 16752, "name": "Stefan Lončar", "side": "away"}, {"id": 59419, "name": "Aleksa Latković", "side": "away"}, {"id": 12998, "name": "Milan Vukotić", "side": "away"}, {"id": 26517, "name": "Marko Perović", "side": "away"}, {"id": 16754, "name": "Stevan Jovetić", "side": "away"}, {"id": 16751, "name": "Igor Vujačić", "side": "away"}, {"id": 3082, "name": "Risto Radunović", "side": "away"}, {"id": 16753, "name": "Marko Simun", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54251, "name": "Viktor Đukanović", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54955, "name": "Dušan Vuković", "side": "away"}, {"id": 13730, "name": "Slobodan Rubežić", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 700, "home_id": 2262, "kickoff": 1790956800, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 16761, "name": "Igor Nikić", "ai_score": 0.362, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 10734, "name": "Ognjen Gašević", "ai_score": 0.343, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 6620, "name": "Stefan Savić", "ai_score": 0.424, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 2919, "name": "Andrej Đurić", "ai_score": 0.269, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 12991, "name": "Milan Roganović", "ai_score": 0.412, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 2196, "name": "Vasilije Adžić", "ai_score": 0.417, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 3635, "name": "Marko Janković", "ai_score": 0.504, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 1424, "name": "Andrija Bulatović", "ai_score": 0.492, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 16750, "name": "Marko Vešović", "ai_score": 0.263, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 1311, "name": "Nikola Krstović", "ai_score": 0.567, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 6947, "name": "Milutin Osmajić", "ai_score": 0.534, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 16749, "name": "Balša Popović", "ai_score": 0.353, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 16752, "name": "Stefan Lončar", "ai_score": 0.312, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 59419, "name": "Aleksa Latković", "ai_score": 0.281, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 12998, "name": "Milan Vukotić", "ai_score": 0.266, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 26517, "name": "Marko Perović", "ai_score": 0.26, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 16754, "name": "Stevan Jovetić", "ai_score": 0.256, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 16751, "name": "Igor Vujačić", "ai_score": 0.247, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 3082, "name": "Risto Radunović", "ai_score": 0.233, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 16753, "name": "Marko Simun", "ai_score": 0.225, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 54251, "name": "Viktor Đukanović", "ai_score": 0.22, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 54955, "name": "Dušan Vuković", "ai_score": 0.165, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 13730, "name": "Slobodan Rubežić", "ai_score": 0.163, "position": "D", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-4-2", "confidence": 0.486}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 54189, "name": "Rihards Matrevics", "ai_score": 0.59, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 54361, "name": "Antonijs Černomordijs", "ai_score": 0.687, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 54201, "name": "Daniels Balodis", "ai_score": 0.506, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 54190, "name": "Deniss Melniks", "ai_score": 0.451, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 7463, "name": "Andrejs Cigaņiks", "ai_score": 0.755, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 54191, "name": "Raivis Jurkovskis", "ai_score": 0.535, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 54194, "name": "Eduards Daskevics", "ai_score": 0.407, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 12808, "name": "Dmitrijs Zelenkovs", "ai_score": 0.804, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 54193, "name": "Lūkass Vapne", "ai_score": 0.7, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 76219, "name": "Markuss Strods", "ai_score": 0.207, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 13758, "name": "Vladislavs Gutkovskis", "ai_score": 0.66, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 12801, "name": "Roberts Savaļnieks", "ai_score": 0.49, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 12949, "name": "Jānis Ikaunieks", "ai_score": 0.484, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 46962, "name": "Roberts Uldriķis", "ai_score": 0.318, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 5643, "name": "Dennis Cirkin", "ai_score": 0.302, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 54195, "name": "Aleksejs Saveljevs", "ai_score": 0.265, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 54192, "name": "Maksims Tonisevs", "ai_score": 0.262, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 56258, "name": "Eduards Emsis", "ai_score": 0.255, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 86666, "name": "Oskars Vientiess", "ai_score": 0.214, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 54203, "name": "Danila Patijčuks", "ai_score": 0.21, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 24898, "name": "Albert Aleksanjan", "ai_score": 0.122, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 54202, "name": "Kristaps Grabovskis", "ai_score": 0.111, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 24313, "name": "Frenks Orols", "ai_score": 0.05, "position": "G", "starting": false}], "formation": "5-4-1", "confidence": 0.714}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.486, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 852, "name": "Erling Haaland", "rank": 1, "goals": 3}, {"id": 28704, "name": "Joel Pohjanpalo", "rank": 2, "goals": 3}, {"id": 745, "name": "Lamine Yamal", "rank": 3, "goals": 3}, {"id": 22868, "name": "Zeki Amdouni", "rank": 4, "goals": 3}, {"id": 6450, "name": "Andri Guðjohnsen", "rank": 5, "goals": 2}, {"id": 711, "name": "Anthony Gordon", "rank": 6, "goals": 2}, {"id": 2466, "name": "Harry Kane", "rank": 7, "goals": 2}, {"id": 7881, "name": "João Félix", "rank": 8, "goals": 2}, {"id": 8996, "name": "Leo Walta", "rank": 9, "goals": 2}, {"id": 5591, "name": "Mexx Meerdink", "rank": 10, "goals": 2}, {"id": 1311, "name": "Nikola Krstović", "rank": 11, "goals": 2}, {"id": 456, "name": "Viktor Gyökeres", "rank": 12, "goals": 2}, {"id": 6537, "name": "Adam Idah", "rank": 13, "goals": 1}, {"id": 1117, "name": "Adam Karabec", "rank": 14, "goals": 1}, {"id": 12738, "name": "Adrian Svanback", "rank": 15, "goals": 1}], "players": [{"id": 13758, "club": "Arka Gdynia", "load": {"games": 2, "country": 2, "minutes": 165}, "name": "Vladislavs Gutkovskis", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Latvia", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 2, "team": "Latvia", "goals": 0, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 0}, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 1311, "club": "Atalanta", "load": {"games": 3, "country": 2, "minutes": 255}, "name": "Nikola Krstović", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Montenegro", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 2, "assists": 1, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 2}, "season": {"apps": 8, "goals": 2, "starts": 2, "assists": 0, "team_games": 12, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 1, "tracked_apps": 8, "tracked_starts": 2}, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 2, "team": "Montenegro", "goals": 2, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 2, "assists": 1}, "assists": 1, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": true, "goals": 1, "score": "2-1", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1787510700, "opponent": "Sassuolo"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.063, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 6947, "club": "Genoa", "load": {"games": 3, "country": 2, "minutes": 259}, "name": "Milutin Osmajić", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Montenegro", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 3, "assists": 0, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 4, "goals": 2, "starts": 3, "assists": 0, "team_games": 12, "big_chances": 1, "clean_sheets": 0, "tracked_apps": 4, "tracked_starts": 3}, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 2, "team": "Montenegro", "goals": 1, "lately": {"apps": 2, "goals": 1, "assists": 0}, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": false, "goals": 1, "score": "1-2", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1789909200, "opponent": "Parma"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.072, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4072, "event": {"id": 212651, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Montenegro", "home_team": "Latvia", "league_id": 64, "event_date": "2026-10-02T16:00:00Z", "league_name": "UEFA Nations League", "away_team_id": 700, "home_team_id": 2262}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.5149}, "created_at": "2026-09-26T02:15:26Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "A", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 51.5}}}, "venue_id": 1356, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.207, "league_id": 64, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 2, "lost": 0, "drawn": 0, "group": "League C, Group 2", "played": 2, "points": 6, "team_id": 700, "position": 1, "goal_diff": 2, "goals_for": 5, "team_name": "Montenegro", "goals_against": 3}, "home": {"won": 0, "lost": 1, "drawn": 1, "group": "League C, Group 2", "played": 2, "points": 1, "team_id": 2262, "position": 4, "goal_diff": -2, "goals_for": 0, "team_name": "Latvia", "goals_against": 2}, "size": 54}, "confidence": 0.426, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871993, "corner_rate": 8.8, "lambda_away": 1.5087741241628794, "lambda_home": 0.8779935449374672, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was under 0.5 goals at 9.00, where the model confidence of 43% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "League C, Group 2 · Matchday 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}