{"id": 212645, "h2h": {"draws": 2, "away_wins": 4, "home_wins": 6, "away_goals": 16, "home_goals": 19, "away_win_rate": 0.3333333333333333, "home_win_rate": 0.5, "total_matches": 12, "recent_matches": [{"away": "France", "date": "2024-11-17T19:45:00+00:00", "home": "Italy", "score": "1-3", "event_id": 209030, "away_score": 3, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 485, "home_team_id": 1326}, {"away": "Italy", "date": "2024-09-06T18:45:00+00:00", "home": "France", "score": "1-3", "event_id": 208905, "away_score": 3, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 1326, "home_team_id": 485}, {"away": "Italy", "date": "2018-06-01T19:00:00+00:00", "home": "France", "score": "3-1", "event_id": 301090, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 3, "away_team_id": 1326, "home_team_id": 485}, {"away": "France", "date": "2016-09-01T19:00:00+00:00", "home": "Italy", "score": "1-3", "event_id": 361144, "away_score": 3, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 485, "home_team_id": 1326}, {"away": "France", "date": "2012-11-14T19:50:00+00:00", "home": "Italy", "score": "1-2", "event_id": 424933, "away_score": 2, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 485, "home_team_id": 1326}, {"away": "Italy", "date": "2008-06-17T18:45:00+00:00", "home": "France", "score": "0-2", "event_id": 484034, "away_score": 2, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 1326, "home_team_id": 485}, {"away": "France", "date": "2006-07-09T18:00:00+00:00", "home": "Italy", "score": "1-1", "event_id": 491926, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 485, "home_team_id": 1326}, {"away": "Italy", "date": "2000-07-02T18:00:00+00:00", "home": "France", "score": "2-1", "event_id": 513962, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 1326, "home_team_id": 485}, {"away": "France", "date": "1998-07-03T14:30:00+00:00", "home": "Italy", "score": "0-0", "event_id": 520198, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 485, "home_team_id": 1326}, {"away": "France", "date": "1986-06-17T14:00:00+00:00", "home": "Italy", "score": "0-2", "event_id": 553365, "away_score": 2, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 485, "home_team_id": 1326}], "avg_total_goals": 2.9166666666666665}, "away": "Italy", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 2.17, "record": "4-1-1", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WDWWLW", "goals_for": 1.5, "venue_ppg": 2.5, "clean_sheets": 3, "goals_against": 0.67}, "home": {"ppg": 2, "record": "4-0-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WWLLWW", "goals_for": 1.5, "venue_ppg": 1, "clean_sheets": 4, "goals_against": 1.33}}, "home": "France", "pass": "No call on France against Italy. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 3, "read": {"side": "home", "text": "France to win, with goals"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.home.absences", "note": "France are without 4 players, and Kylian Mbappé is a real loss.", "section": "§2.4"}, {"id": "availability.away.absences", "note": "Italy are without 4 players, none of them central to how the side plays.", "section": "§2.4"}, {"id": "form.away", "note": "Italy have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.7, and 2.50 a game on the road.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Paris", "name": "Stade de France", "capacity": 81338}, "colors": {"away": "#0b8646", "home": "#0a3a76"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": {"above": {"d": 0, "l": 1, "w": 0}, "below": {"d": 0, "l": 0, "w": 1}}, "home": {"above": null, "below": {"d": 0, "l": 0, "w": 2}}}, "teams": {"away": 1326, "home": 485}, "best_xi": [], "players": {"432": {"caps": 14, "goals": 2, "signed": null, "country": "France"}, "594": {"caps": 99, "goals": 46, "signed": null, "country": "France"}, "782": {"caps": 51, "goals": 8, "signed": null, "country": "Italy"}, "1063": {"caps": 50, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "Italy"}, "1330": {"caps": 22, "goals": 11, "signed": null, "country": "Italy"}, "1686": {"caps": 36, "goals": 3, "signed": null, "country": "Italy"}, "1691": {"caps": 11, "goals": 5, "signed": null, "country": "Italy"}, "2243": {"caps": 33, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "France"}, "2253": {"caps": 76, "goals": 9, "signed": null, "country": "France"}, "2261": {"caps": 33, "goals": 6, "signed": null, "country": "France"}, "2571": {"caps": 11, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "Italy"}, "3460": {"caps": 48, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "France"}}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 3113, "vs": null, "name": "Roberto Mancini"}, "home": {"id": 3112, "vs": null, "name": "Zinédine Zidane"}}}, "lambda": [1.08, 1.38], "league": "UEFA Nations League", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.absences", "note": "France are without 4 players, and Kylian Mbappé is a real loss.", "tier": 1, "moves": [{"pct": -5.2, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": 0.8, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": -2.6, "side": "home", "channel": "corners"}, {"pct": 0.4, "side": "both", "channel": "cards"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"count": 4, "players": [{"role": "ATT", "tags": ["best_performer", "chance_creator", "in_form"], "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "reason": "Knee Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0.5, "importance": 0.247, "cover_at_position": 0}, {"role": "MID", "player": "Warren Zaïre-Emery", "reason": "Thigh Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.021, "cover_at_position": 0}, {"role": "ATT", "player": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "reason": "Hamstring Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0, "cover_at_position": 0}, {"role": "DEF", "player": "William Saliba", "reason": "Back Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": false, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.05, "cover_at_position": 0}], "measured": 3, "combined_goal_share": 0.5, "combined_importance": 0.268}, "strength": 0.67}, {"id": "availability.away.absences", "note": "Italy are without 4 players, none of them central to how the side plays.", "tier": 1, "moves": [{"pct": -3.5, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": 0.6, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": -1.7, "side": "away", "channel": "corners"}, {"pct": 1, "side": "both", "channel": "cards"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"count": 4, "players": [{"role": "MID", "tags": ["ever_present"], "player": "Bryan Cristante", "reason": "Back Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.08, "cover_at_position": 0}, {"role": "MID", "tags": ["best_performer", "chance_creator"], "player": "Federico Dimarco", "reason": "Knee Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.08, "cover_at_position": 0}, {"role": "ATT", "player": "Nicolò Zaniolo", "reason": "Thigh Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.058, "cover_at_position": 0}, {"role": "ATT", "player": "Giacomo Raspadori", "reason": "Thigh Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.037, "cover_at_position": 0}], "measured": 4, "combined_goal_share": 0, "combined_importance": 0.255}, "strength": 0.637}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.577, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.423}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "The reverse fixture finished 1-3, too close to carry a revenge motive.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {"reverse_margin": 2}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Zinédine Zidane is 2 games into the job at France. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 4.2, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 3, "manager": "Zinédine Zidane", "tenure_days": 8, "matches_in_charge": 2, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 3, "before_ppm": 2.1}}, "strength": 0.467}, {"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Roberto Mancini is 2 games into the job at Italy. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 2.8, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.5, "manager": "Roberto Mancini", "tenure_days": 8, "matches_in_charge": 2, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.5, "before_ppm": 2.5}}, "strength": 0.467}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "France come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 4, "days_rest": 4, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Italy come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 4, "days_rest": 4, "matchesIn7": 2, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 2.0576870659036 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.116, "shrunk": 0.8, "defence": -0.11, "effective_matches": 2.1}, "home": {"attack": -0.031, "shrunk": 0.79, "defence": 0.103, "effective_matches": 2.1}, "sample": 2.0576870659036, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 19, "corners": 6.6, "matches": 12, "possession": 55.8, "xg_per_shot": 0.11, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.24, "corners_per_shot": 0.346}, "home": {"shots": 17.6, "corners": 6.1, "matches": 12, "possession": 58.9, "xg_per_shot": 0.104, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.34, "corners_per_shot": 0.346}, "possession_gap": 3.1}, "strength": 0.123}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "France have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.34}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "Italy are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.24}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "183 yellow cards in this referee's last 43 games, where 176 would be usual in this league, and 13 reds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§13", "evidence": {"matches": 43, "red_ratio": 1.42, "yellow_ratio": 1.04, "reds_per_match": 0.302, "yellows_per_match": 4.26, "league_reds_per_match": 0.213, "league_yellows_per_match": 4.09}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {"rain_mm": null, "wind_kph": 5.5, "description": "rain", "temperature_c": 20}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": -0.304451477725764}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 1987, "name": "Mike Maignan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 513, "name": "Lucas Digne", "side": "home"}, {"id": 3463, "name": "Dayot Upamecano", "side": "home"}, {"id": 424, "name": "Maxence Lacroix", "side": "home"}, {"id": 739, "name": "Jules Koundé", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1994, "name": "Adrien Rabiot", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1064, "name": "Manu Koné", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2261, "name": "Bradley Barcola", "side": "home"}, {"id": 856, "name": "Rayan Cherki", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2467, "name": "Michael Olise", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2253, "name": "Ousmane Dembélé", "side": "home"}, {"id": 4324, "name": "Désiré Doué", "side": "home"}, {"id": 591, "name": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "side": "home"}, {"id": 7994, "name": "Theo Hernández", "side": "home"}, {"id": 393, "name": "Malo Gusto", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2229, "name": "Maghnes Akliouche", "side": "home"}, {"id": 324, "name": "Ibrahima Konaté", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1688, "name": "Marcus Thuram", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2801, "name": "Brice Samba", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2246, "name": "Lucas Hernández", "side": "home"}, {"id": 8155, "name": "N'Golo Kanté", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1406, "name": "Robin Risser", "side": "home"}, {"id": 594, "name": "Kylian Mbappé", "side": "home"}, {"id": 843, "name": "Gianluigi Donnarumma", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1059, "name": "Gianluca Mancini", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1681, "name": "Alessandro Bastoni", "side": "away"}, {"id": 4038, "name": "Giorgio Scalvini", "side": "away"}, {"id": 446, "name": "Riccardo Calafiori", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1086, "name": "Giovanni Di Lorenzo", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1699, "name": "Davide Frattesi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 704, "name": "Sandro Tonali", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1683, "name": "Nicolò 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1063, "name": "Bryan Cristante", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1686, "name": "Federico Dimarco", "side": "away"}, {"id": 782, "name": "Giacomo Raspadori", "side": "away"}, {"id": 2571, "name": "Nicolò Zaniolo", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 1326, "home_id": 485, "kickoff": 1790966700, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 843, "name": "Gianluigi Donnarumma", "ai_score": 0.814, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 1059, "name": "Gianluca Mancini", "ai_score": 0.642, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 1681, "name": "Alessandro Bastoni", "ai_score": 0.485, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 4038, "name": "Giorgio Scalvini", "ai_score": 0.287, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 446, "name": "Riccardo Calafiori", "ai_score": 0.556, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 1086, "name": "Giovanni Di Lorenzo", "ai_score": 0.466, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 1699, "name": "Davide Frattesi", "ai_score": 0.365, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 704, "name": "Sandro Tonali", "ai_score": 0.7, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 1683, "name": "Nicolò Barella", "ai_score": 0.623, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 1691, "name": "Pio Esposito", "ai_score": 0.651, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 1330, "name": "Moise Kean", "ai_score": 0.405, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 463, "name": "Michael Kayode", "ai_score": 0.315, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 780, "name": "Matteo Ruggeri", "ai_score": 0.298, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 499, "name": "Diego Coppola", "ai_score": 0.284, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 718, "name": "Guglielmo Vicario", "ai_score": 0.252, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 4157, "name": "Alessandro Romano", "ai_score": 0.242, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 1307, "name": "Gianluca Scamacca", "ai_score": 0.239, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 958, "name": "Nicolò Cambiaghi", "ai_score": 0.23, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 2208, "name": "Sebastiano Esposito", "ai_score": 0.23, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 1325, "name": "Nicolò Fagioli", "ai_score": 0.226, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 29735, "name": "Issa Doumbia", "ai_score": 0.216, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 1320, "name": "Daniel Maldini", "ai_score": 0.191, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 1999, "name": "Samuele Ricci", "ai_score": 0.132, "position": "M", "starting": false}], "formation": "3-5-2", "confidence": 0.577}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 1987, "name": "Mike Maignan", "ai_score": 0.857, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 513, "name": "Lucas Digne", "ai_score": 0.544, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 3463, "name": "Dayot Upamecano", "ai_score": 0.744, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 424, "name": "Maxence Lacroix", "ai_score": 0.592, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 739, "name": "Jules Koundé", "ai_score": 0.711, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 1994, "name": "Adrien Rabiot", "ai_score": 0.668, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 1064, "name": "Manu Koné", "ai_score": 0.53, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 2261, "name": "Bradley Barcola", "ai_score": 0.519, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 856, "name": "Rayan Cherki", "ai_score": 0.327, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 2467, "name": "Michael Olise", "ai_score": 0.814, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 2253, "name": "Ousmane Dembélé", "ai_score": 0.753, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 4324, "name": "Désiré Doué", "ai_score": 0.526, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 591, "name": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "ai_score": 0.501, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 7994, "name": "Theo Hernández", "ai_score": 0.335, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 393, "name": "Malo Gusto", "ai_score": 0.284, "position": "D", "starting": false}, 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"recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "country": 1, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 4, "goals": 0, "starts": 1, "assists": 1, "team_games": 11, "big_chances": 2, "clean_sheets": 1, "tracked_apps": 4, "tracked_starts": 1}, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 1, "team": "Italy", "goals": 0, "lately": {"apps": 1, "goals": 0, "assists": 0}, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": true, "goals": 0, "score": "4-1", "assists": 1, "kickoff": 1788547500, "opponent": "Genoa"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.015, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4064, "event": {"id": 212645, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Italy", "home_team": "France", "league_id": 64, "event_date": "2026-10-02T18:45:00Z", "league_name": "UEFA Nations League", "away_team_id": 1326, "home_team_id": 485}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.6611}, "created_at": "2026-09-26T02:15:26Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 66.1}}}, "venue_id": 442, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.299, "league_id": 64, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 1, "lost": 1, "drawn": 0, "group": "League A, Group 1", "played": 2, "points": 3, "team_id": 1326, "position": 2, "goal_diff": 1, "goals_for": 4, "team_name": "Italy", "goals_against": 3}, "home": {"won": 2, "lost": 0, "drawn": 0, "group": "League A, Group 1", "played": 2, "points": 6, "team_id": 485, "position": 1, "goal_diff": 2, "goals_for": 2, "team_name": "France", "goals_against": 0}, "size": 54}, "confidence": 0.442, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871981, "corner_rate": 8.4, "lambda_away": 1.3761954586063447, "lambda_home": 1.078106643925132, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. 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